AyG
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
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Post by AyG on May 12, 2022 6:52:53 GMT 7
crypto currencies dive even deeper. There was a certain frisson of schadenfreude when I read this morning that the stablecoin LUNA has lost 98% of its value and another stablecoin, Basis Cash (BAC) which should trade around one US$ is currently less than one cent. If stablecoins can fail so miserably, what hope can there be for unbacked cryptocurrencies? Still save some cash and try to figure out when to step in again. Fortunately the income from my investments covers my day to day living expenses. I only have to dip into capital for things like return trips to the UK (which haven't been happening recently), and buying my new car. I got lucky with the latter, selling before the recent market decline.
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AyG
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
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Post by AyG on May 12, 2022 11:33:24 GMT 7
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rubl
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
The wondering type
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Post by rubl on May 12, 2022 11:46:48 GMT 7
Crypto currency is a pure speculation hobby as far as I'm concerned. I can pity fools who put all they savings into crypto and loose but it's the same as putting money in shares ands funds on the highest point of the bubble. You take a risk and don't blame 'yes but I was advised ...' "
IMHO of course.
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Moobin
Crazy Mango
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Post by Moobin on May 15, 2022 16:41:41 GMT 7
^^^ everything is getting battered, even so called safe havens. Your figures sound about right, right now I an down about 30%, well I was last time I looked. I darent log in to my portfolio these days. Last time I checked it was a 50k kick to the financial ging gang goolies. I'll give it a few more months before I check the health of my portfolio. At the rate I'm shitting bricks at the moment, I should have enough for my planned new house-build later this year so could save a bit of money.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on May 17, 2022 4:46:34 GMT 7
I feel very very fortunate that I de-risked when I did, it was 70% luck and 30% gut feel I suppose, the one time when a flip flop paid off. I hold two 5% higher risks funds, one of which is down 24% (BG Int) but the other is still in the black over the year (MYW) My other funds are broadly flat and I'm seriously happy about that. But reading the news makes me wonder where all of this is going and where it will end, as if covid and supply chain disruption wasn't big enough on its own, we've now got Ukraine to contend with and potentially that far worse. Once again it's a supply chain issue, Ukraine feeds large parts of the world, food shortages mean higher inflation and Bailey reckons this could continue for a long time (I do think he may have plateaued as head of the FCA, a steady pair of hands on the wheel they called him.....one must first take hands from pockets)!
So what are investors to do? I read that as markets continue to fall, more and more investors capitulate and cash in. I have no such need but my heart goes out to those facing that quandary. Hang in there they say, ride out the storm. I also read that a coup may be afoot in Moscow, which might help. UK farmers planting fields would also help, instead of sitting back and receiving subsidies for planting nothing. These are difficult times for many.
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Post by rgs2001uk on May 19, 2022 21:16:27 GMT 7
^^^ everything is getting battered, even so called safe havens. Your figures sound about right, right now I an down about 30%, well I was last time I looked. I darent log in to my portfolio these days. Last time I checked it was a 50k kick to the financial ging gang goolies. I'll give it a few more months before I check the health of my portfolio. At the rate I'm shitting bricks at the moment, I should have enough for my planned new house-build later this year so could save a bit of money. Go for it, get that house built, once its bought and paid for no one can take it off you. That will probably be the next thing to take a hit, house prices once inflation and interest rates kick in, Thailand seems to be on a different planet when it comes to these things.
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chiangmai
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
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Post by chiangmai on May 20, 2022 7:14:32 GMT 7
It's difficult to imagine Thai house prices taking a hit. There's no shortage of supply of houses or land, quite the contrary. Plus it's a closed market to outsiders. Inflation is a concern but it does look as though the government here is serious about trying to keep it under control by capping Deisel and transportation costs. The real downer will be slow tourist growth, high oil costs mean airline operating costs will skyrocket, expect a fuel surcharge on plane tickets. And China is still in lockdown so no tourists from there for a while, or from Russia either.
In other news....I read that Thai 5 stars have dropped their prices to 4 star level, that has put a squeeze on 4 stars and many wont survive.....it seems there will be a gap in the hotel market soon, you can have cheap or you can have expensive but nothing in between.
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Post by rgs2001uk on May 21, 2022 21:32:24 GMT 7
^^^ , why is it every time we go away the locals come out trying to offer us land. In the last month, Kanchanaburi and Hua Hin, they will be added to the list of no thank you but thanks anyway. I shouldnt be cycnical, but if its such a great deal, why hasnt anyone else snapped it up?
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jun 3, 2022 7:13:29 GMT 7
Looking ahead, for planning purposes, what's a reasonable average rate of return on investments over the next 10 years? My crystal ball says 7%, what does yours say?
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siampolee
Detective
Alive alive O
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Post by siampolee on Jun 3, 2022 10:53:29 GMT 7
With some stormy weather coming, turn your umbrella upside down to catch those falling stocks. I reckon on a 12% rate of return over that 10-year time span. That's based on the comments and advice given by the managers of our family trust, they've done a splendid job for the family over some 110 years.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Jun 6, 2022 20:55:58 GMT 7
Looking ahead, for planning purposes, what's a reasonable average rate of return on investments over the next 10 years? My crystal ball says 7%, what does yours say? I have no idea and neither do any of the other talking heads. At this moment in time I am adopting a zoom out approach.
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AyG
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
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Post by AyG on Jun 7, 2022 8:33:21 GMT 7
Indeed, nobody can know. There are too many imponderables. World War III? Another global pandemic? The rise of the robots? A meteor crashing into Earth?
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jun 7, 2022 9:22:03 GMT 7
Lots of people seem to have a real problem with projections, financial forecasting, hypothesis and forward planning, what if the BoE said no, sorry, we can't do any economic forecasts because there is too much uncertainty and too many unknowns....it's nonsense! I mean, posters here are taking the long position by holding their funds and not selling them, surely that's based on a financial assumption that things in the future will be better than right now. If you can take that giant step then there's the question, how much better, substantially, marginally etc etc, you get the idea. BTW nobody gets assigned or ridiculed if they are wrong in five years' time plus nobody is expected to be absolutely right, as said previously, a reasonable average for planning purposes (not that any guestimates are even a little bit useful at this stage). I bet some of you guys were just a barrel of laughs in school when teachers asked you to explore what the future might look like, and why you thought that! Nope, sorry teach., too many variables, can't do.
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AyG
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
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Post by AyG on Jun 7, 2022 10:09:17 GMT 7
Rational investors know they can't predict what the markets will do in future (hence the folly of trying to time the market). What they do have is hindsight. For example, I know that the 10 year rolling average total return of the FTSE-100 from 1984–2019 is 8.4% annualised. I invest in the hope that it will do similarly over future rolling periods. However, I'm also aware that in the worst 10 year period it only returned +0.32% annualised (but in the best it returned 17.5%).
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Post by rgs2001uk on Jun 7, 2022 12:25:12 GMT 7
Lots of people seem to have a real problem with projections, financial forecasting, hypothesis and forward planning, what if the BoE said no, sorry, we can't do any economic forecasts because there is too much uncertainty and too many unknowns....it's nonsense! I mean, posters here are taking the long position by holding their funds and not selling them, surely that's based on a financial assumption that things in the future will be better than right now. If you can take that giant step then there's the question, how much better, substantially, marginally etc etc, you get the idea. BTW nobody gets assigned or ridiculed if they are wrong in five years' time plus nobody is expected to be absolutely right, as said previously, a reasonable average for planning purposes (not that any guestimates are even a little bit useful at this stage). I bet some of you guys were just a barrel of laughs in school when teachers asked you to explore what the future might look like, and why you thought that! Nope, sorry teach., too many variables, can't do. In a previous life part of my job involved attrition factors, I could knock them out all day long, the problem was those higher up couldn’t understand them, too many variables, yeah I was a right barrel of laughs.
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