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Post by rgs2001uk on Oct 1, 2021 21:09:25 GMT 7
^^^ I can beat that! JEO down 3.0%, THRG down 3.5%, and JEDT (formerly JESC) down 3.9%. Good lawd AyG, you really are your own worst enemy, are you still holding that dud, I off loaded that months ago, go on, you know you want to, the markets have no place for sentiment.
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Oct 1, 2021 21:42:27 GMT 7
^^^ I can beat that! JEO down 3.0%, THRG down 3.5%, and JEDT (formerly JESC) down 3.9%. Good lawd AyG, you really are your own worst enemy, are you still holding that dud, I off loaded that months ago, go on, you know you want to, the markets have no place for sentiment. I sold 50% a couple of months ago. However, there's part of me that thinks maybe Darwall might have learnt a lesson. On the flip side, I don't like small management companies with perhaps dodgy controls. Year to date he's up 10.84% which isn't bad.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 5, 2021 5:22:41 GMT 7
MNP leading the way down this morning, again, repetitive and unfortunately predictable.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 17, 2021 9:06:46 GMT 7
I got fed up with MNP and unloaded it before I got into loss-making territory. I'm very happy with the funds I hold presently. There's less than 5% overlap, average P/E is 18 and max is 24. The average volatility is 13 and the highest is 18. I'm 45% in cash, the 55% invested is split 60/40 where the 40% is mostly gold, T'bills and Gilts. Geographically I'm nicely spread, 40% US, 12% Dev. Asia, 12% EU, 9% UK, 6% Japan and 17% EM (some overlap between definitions of EM and Dev Asia so not 100% true). 85% of my holding are under risk level 4. Health care, real estate, consumer defensive and financials dominate, tech is around 10% and large chunks of that are Taiwan SC and MS....nobody holds more than 6% of anything!
I'm still working on upside and downside returns and maximum loss estimates. I currently estimate average upside (including cash) will be around 8% pa, downside risk is limited to 30% of total holdings which assuming a 20% drop in markets will mean an acceptable level of loss...this is WIP.
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Moobin
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Post by Moobin on Oct 17, 2021 12:58:32 GMT 7
I got fed up with MNP and unloaded it before I got into loss-making territory. I'm very happy with the funds I hold presently. There's less than 5% overlap, average P/E is 18 and max is 24. The average volatility is 13 and the highest is 18. I'm 45% in cash, the 55% invested is split 60/40 where the 40% is mostly gold, T'bills and Gilts. Geographically I'm nicely spread, 40% US, 12% Dev. Asia, 12% EU, 9% UK, 6% Japan and 17% EM (some overlap between definitions of EM and Dev Asia so not 100% true). 85% of my holding are under risk level 4. Health care, real estate, consumer defensive and financials dominate, tech is around 10% and large chunks of that are Taiwan SC and MS....nobody holds more than 6% of anything! I'm still working on upside and downside returns and maximum loss estimates. I currently estimate average upside (including cash) will be around 8% pa, downside risk is limited to 30% of total holdings which assuming a 20% drop in markets will mean an acceptable level of loss...this is WIP. Still in the process of tidying up my holdings. Down to 12 funds now (Asia, tech, healthcare, Top Thai Co's, China (this is hurting), global, property/infrastructure (hurting too), Thailand SME, and UROCK (a UOB mixed fund)) one of which I can only sell when I meet the minimum holding period for tax benefit purposes (LTF), but still a couple of funds which overlap too much. Not invested in gold though. I would be happy with 8% pa, but I do need to start reducing risk as I will retire in 15 months. My dream is to live off earnings on investments and 8% pa would more than meet that dream. In fact I would be able to increase my investments with that rate of return, which would be great as there would be plenty left for my wife when I pop my clogs and some to give to my son.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 17, 2021 15:53:15 GMT 7
I got fed up with MNP and unloaded it before I got into loss-making territory. I'm very happy with the funds I hold presently. There's less than 5% overlap, average P/E is 18 and max is 24. The average volatility is 13 and the highest is 18. I'm 45% in cash, the 55% invested is split 60/40 where the 40% is mostly gold, T'bills and Gilts. Geographically I'm nicely spread, 40% US, 12% Dev. Asia, 12% EU, 9% UK, 6% Japan and 17% EM (some overlap between definitions of EM and Dev Asia so not 100% true). 85% of my holding are under risk level 4. Health care, real estate, consumer defensive and financials dominate, tech is around 10% and large chunks of that are Taiwan SC and MS....nobody holds more than 6% of anything! I'm still working on upside and downside returns and maximum loss estimates. I currently estimate average upside (including cash) will be around 8% pa, downside risk is limited to 30% of total holdings which assuming a 20% drop in markets will mean an acceptable level of loss...this is WIP. Still in the process of tidying up my holdings. Down to 12 funds now (Asia, tech, healthcare, Top Thai Co's, China (this is hurting), global, property/infrastructure (hurting too), Thailand SME, and UROCK (a UOB mixed fund)) one of which I can only sell when I meet the minimum holding period for tax benefit purposes (LTF), but still a couple of funds which overlap too much. Not invested in gold though. I would be happy with 8% pa, but I do need to start reducing risk as I will retire in 15 months. My dream is to live off earnings on investments and 8% pa would more than meet that dream. In fact I would be able to increase my investments with that rate of return, which would be great as there would be plenty left for my wife when I pop my clogs and some to give to my son. I'm more comfortable now having done what I have done than at any other time previously in my short investing career. For the first time I have gone over all the details and I not only understand the risks but I'm also in the process of quantifying them. It can be argued that I should have done that previously, but I didn't! Of course now I appreciate the risks far more than I did previously so it's all a journey. BTW I reduced my holdings to six funds, I'm seriously unlikely to ever increase that number which means things are easier to manage.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 18, 2021 6:42:10 GMT 7
I've finished my upside/downside review. I calculate, based on the past 5 years performance, that my 12-month upside is 11.6%, which when cash holdings are factored in leaves me with an overall total return very close to 6.4% (my goal was 6%). My downside, assuming a 20% fall in markets, is an overall loss of 6.5%, which is acceptable.
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Oct 18, 2021 7:06:01 GMT 7
I calculate, based on the past 5 years performance, that my 12-month upside is 11.6% I suspect that there are four problems with that: (1) The funds you are using in your calculations have been selected based upon that same performance. There is no guarantee that future performance will be similar. (2) 10 years is usually considered roughly to equate with a full economic cycle. By using 5 year figures you are looking at performance during half an economic cycle; the second half of the cycle will typically be very different. (3) I presume that you're accounting in GBP. When looking at overseas investments, historic returns will include changes in FX rate (unless you're only considering hedged investments). It's rather unlikely that the changes in GBP FX rates will be the same in the next five years as they were in the past. (4) Based upon your past behaviour, it's possible that you'll change your investments based upon short term performance, harming your overall investment performance. γνῶθι σεαυτόν.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 18, 2021 7:52:37 GMT 7
I calculate, based on the past 5 years performance, that my 12-month upside is 11.6% I suspect that there are four problems with that: (1) The funds you are using in your calculations have been selected based upon that same performance. There is no guarantee that future performance will be similar. (2) 10 years is usually considered roughly to equate with a full economic cycle. By using 5 year figures you are looking at performance during half an economic cycle; the second half of the cycle will typically be very different. (3) I presume that you're accounting in GBP. When looking at overseas investments, historic returns will include changes in FX rate (unless you're only considering hedged investments). It's rather unlikely that the changes in GBP FX rates will be the same in the next five years as they were in the past. (4) Based upon your past behaviour, it's possible that you'll change your investments based upon short term performance, harming your overall investment performance. γνῶθι σεαυτόν. 1 - I've merely extrapolated past 5 year performance and projected forward, not that scientific but better than a WAG. Fund performance was the last and almost inconsequential factor I considered, investment sectors, geographic spread, risk level, volatility, P/E and overlap were represented the vast majority of reasons. Had performance been a driving force I wouldn't have purchased CGT and PNL. 2 - Noted, but I regard both upside and downsides as the maximums. 3 - Yes, GBP. I can't begin to guess at future ex.rates. 4 - I hold six funds. One I have held for 16 years (Bailiie Gifford Int. 5%). Two I have held since I first started trying to manage my own SIPP (FSA Asia Focus and JPM EM 5% & 5%). Two are very recent acquisitions based on a switch into Wealth preservation funds (CGT AND PNL 16% & 16%). One is about twenty months old (MWY 8%). I might add that my current strategy leaves me holding 45% in cash which can be quickly deployed in the event of a significant downturn.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Oct 19, 2021 21:39:58 GMT 7
I got fed up with MNP and unloaded it before I got into loss-making territory. I'm very happy with the funds I hold presently. There's less than 5% overlap, average P/E is 18 and max is 24. The average volatility is 13 and the highest is 18. I'm 45% in cash, the 55% invested is split 60/40 where the 40% is mostly gold, T'bills and Gilts. Geographically I'm nicely spread, 40% US, 12% Dev. Asia, 12% EU, 9% UK, 6% Japan and 17% EM (some overlap between definitions of EM and Dev Asia so not 100% true). 85% of my holding are under risk level 4. Health care, real estate, consumer defensive and financials dominate, tech is around 10% and large chunks of that are Taiwan SC and MS....nobody holds more than 6% of anything! I'm still working on upside and downside returns and maximum loss estimates. I currently estimate average upside (including cash) will be around 8% pa, downside risk is limited to 30% of total holdings which assuming a 20% drop in markets will mean an acceptable level of loss...this is WIP. Am I missing something here, its up 11% over the last year, not something to be sniffed at. I hold it, and will continue to hold. www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/m/martin-currie-global-portfolio-trust-ord-5p
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Post by rgs2001uk on Oct 19, 2021 21:45:21 GMT 7
Still in the process of tidying up my holdings. Down to 12 funds now (Asia, tech, healthcare, Top Thai Co's, China (this is hurting), global, property/infrastructure (hurting too), Thailand SME, and UROCK (a UOB mixed fund)) one of which I can only sell when I meet the minimum holding period for tax benefit purposes (LTF), but still a couple of funds which overlap too much. Not invested in gold though. I would be happy with 8% pa, but I do need to start reducing risk as I will retire in 15 months. My dream is to live off earnings on investments and 8% pa would more than meet that dream. In fact I would be able to increase my investments with that rate of return, which would be great as there would be plenty left for my wife when I pop my clogs and some to give to my son. I'm more comfortable now having done what I have done than at any other time previously in my short investing career. For the first time I have gone over all the details and I not only understand the risks but I'm also in the process of quantifying them. It can be argued that I should have done that previously, but I didn't! Of course now I appreciate the risks far more than I did previously so it's all a journey. BTW I reduced my holdings to six funds, I'm seriously unlikely to ever increase that number which means things are easier to manage.I hear you, I hold 13, but after long thought, its more than likely I will only be able to reduce that to ten at one time I thought of holding only 5, but they would all have been BG funds. I am riding this out for the next few years, but its more than likely I will offload Bankers, Worldwide Health Care and Polar Capital, and split the proceeds into ten and reinvest in what I already hold.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Oct 19, 2021 21:47:01 GMT 7
I suspect that there are four problems with that: (1) The funds you are using in your calculations have been selected based upon that same performance. There is no guarantee that future performance will be similar. (2) 10 years is usually considered roughly to equate with a full economic cycle. By using 5 year figures you are looking at performance during half an economic cycle; the second half of the cycle will typically be very different. (3) I presume that you're accounting in GBP. When looking at overseas investments, historic returns will include changes in FX rate (unless you're only considering hedged investments). It's rather unlikely that the changes in GBP FX rates will be the same in the next five years as they were in the past. (4) Based upon your past behaviour, it's possible that you'll change your investments based upon short term performance, harming your overall investment performance. γνῶθι σεαυτόν. 1 - I've merely extrapolated past 5 year performance and projected forward, not that scientific but better than a WAG. Fund performance was the last and almost inconsequential factor I considered, investment sectors, geographic spread, risk level, volatility, P/E and overlap were represented the vast majority of reasons. Had performance been a driving force I wouldn't have purchased CGT and PNL. 2 - Noted, but I regard both upside and downsides as the maximums. 3 - Yes, GBP. I can't begin to guess at future ex.rates. 4 - I hold six funds. One I have held for 16 years (Bailiie Gifford Int. 5%). Two I have held since I first started trying to manage my own SIPP (FSA Asia Focus and JPM EM 5% & 5%). Two are very recent acquisitions based on a switch into Wealth preservation funds (CGT AND PNL 16% & 16%). One is about twenty months old (MWY 8%). I might add that my current strategy leaves me holding 45% in cash which can be quickly deployed in the event of a significant downturn. Tell me to p**s off if you want, but that seems rather drastic. Do you not have a company pension/s?
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 20, 2021 5:36:14 GMT 7
1 - I've merely extrapolated past 5 year performance and projected forward, not that scientific but better than a WAG. Fund performance was the last and almost inconsequential factor I considered, investment sectors, geographic spread, risk level, volatility, P/E and overlap were represented the vast majority of reasons. Had performance been a driving force I wouldn't have purchased CGT and PNL. 2 - Noted, but I regard both upside and downsides as the maximums. 3 - Yes, GBP. I can't begin to guess at future ex.rates. 4 - I hold six funds. One I have held for 16 years (Bailiie Gifford Int. 5%). Two I have held since I first started trying to manage my own SIPP (FSA Asia Focus and JPM EM 5% & 5%). Two are very recent acquisitions based on a switch into Wealth preservation funds (CGT AND PNL 16% & 16%). One is about twenty months old (MWY 8%). I might add that my current strategy leaves me holding 45% in cash which can be quickly deployed in the event of a significant downturn. Tell me to p**s off if you want, but that seems rather drastic. Do you not have a company pension/s? Okay, p**s off. Whilst this is technically pension money from a tax perspective it doesn't form part of my pensions for retirement, it's nothing more than spare cash that I want to leave in tact to my wife because it's the only one that is capable of being inherited. I've been playing with it to try and make it grow and have increased it by 22% as a result of my investment antics. I have four other pensions but all terminate at death, the UK State, the US Government SSc. The two private plans I hold are destined elsewhere after I pop off. Is that drastic you wonder. For you at your age, yes, for me at age 72 no. If that money doesn't grow more than a few percent each year I will care not a jot, as long as it keeps pace with inflation then my job is done. Do I want to risk it by dabbling in things I still don't fully understand, don't have a broker to front it all for me and don't have time to recover losses on my side.....no. I think the odds are that the next crash might be sizeable and it's long overdue, I would be annoyed if I were to loose the 22% profit that I've made, I would be p**sed off if I lost more than that. Most importantly, I don't need to assume the risk because I don't need the upside.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 20, 2021 5:45:54 GMT 7
I got fed up with MNP and unloaded it before I got into loss-making territory. I'm very happy with the funds I hold presently. There's less than 5% overlap, average P/E is 18 and max is 24. The average volatility is 13 and the highest is 18. I'm 45% in cash, the 55% invested is split 60/40 where the 40% is mostly gold, T'bills and Gilts. Geographically I'm nicely spread, 40% US, 12% Dev. Asia, 12% EU, 9% UK, 6% Japan and 17% EM (some overlap between definitions of EM and Dev Asia so not 100% true). 85% of my holding are under risk level 4. Health care, real estate, consumer defensive and financials dominate, tech is around 10% and large chunks of that are Taiwan SC and MS....nobody holds more than 6% of anything! I'm still working on upside and downside returns and maximum loss estimates. I currently estimate average upside (including cash) will be around 8% pa, downside risk is limited to 30% of total holdings which assuming a 20% drop in markets will mean an acceptable level of loss...this is WIP. Am I missing something here, its up 11% over the last year, not something to be sniffed at. I hold it, and will continue to hold. www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/m/martin-currie-global-portfolio-trust-ord-5pI bought on 22 Jan at 375. and sold last week at 383.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 20, 2021 6:54:14 GMT 7
My apologies, I got my numbers wrong, I didn't double when I should have.
The upside return of my current holdings, over the past 5 years, was 60% or roughly 12% per year although don't forget that I'm holding 50% in cash. The potential upside return going forward is therefore 12% per year. Past performance is however no guide.........
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