chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Nov 11, 2022 16:42:43 GMT 7
And they're orf...CPI came in better than hoped and markets soared. Big dog rgs's portfolio is flying into the stratosphere and erasing losses apace. CM's minnow holdings are improving daily and are now well into positive territory, it's so nostalgic it brings a tear to the eye. What's next I wonder, perhaps some unpleasant downturn next week to erase half the gains....dunno. But it's still not buying time for the plodders, we shall wait and see what sticks.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Nov 23, 2022 7:36:50 GMT 7
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Nov 26, 2022 9:20:56 GMT 7
There's a really interesting mix of investor sentiments out there currently. Everyone agrees that inflation and the Fed is the key issue but the recent speight of large rate rises now seems to be ready to abate. No more 0.75% increases, the next one in December is slated to be 0.5-% with the new year perhaps seeing even smaller rises. The switch from 0.75% to 0.50% has been enough to get dip buyers back into the game but is it too early still? I think it is. That said, the 10-year bond has fallen again and is below 3.7%. And, the fear gauge, the VIX, is very subdued at a very normal looking 20 whilst the Dollar is looking extra normal at 106. So what's going to happen, next, everyone wants to know, will the current uptick in the S&P hold, will it turn into a full-blown rally, or will it do its usual trick of plumbing back into the depths? I certainly rule out a rally because the Fed isn't done yet and the data may yet yield some nasty surprises. By the same token, I'd be surprised to see the index take a substantial dive, I just can't see the Fed loading further large rate increases on an already rate-weary business community. I think that one of the drivers of the current risk-on behavior is investors' fear of missing out on the surge when markets do finally take off again. Another driver is the late switch into dividend and income funds by those stalwarts who thought the S&P would recover quickly. I confess to thinking along both those lines recently.
Whatever.....I'm back to within a hair's breadth of my previous peak, any losses are a thing of the past. I did buy a small holding in Royal London Global Select which is no Baillie Gifford by any means but it does increase my equities holding somewhat but in a low-risk way.
Life could be a lot worse.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Dec 1, 2022 16:22:48 GMT 7
What will happen next I pondered.
The head of equities strategy at Morgan Stanley reckons the current markets rally will last until year-end but that the indices will take a dive as companies begin to issue profit warnings at the start of the earnings season in January as the effects of inflation are felt. How far they will fall is another story, MS is suggesting 30% but that's a WAG of course. BUT the author of that WAG was spot on to the penny when it came to estimating how far the S&P would fall, he said 3,900 when all his peers said 4,200+, and he held his ground when he was the only one out in left field.....maybe food for thought.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Dec 9, 2022 7:33:30 GMT 7
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Dec 10, 2022 16:01:12 GMT 7
Some traditional and older investors have disagreed with my interpretation of todays 60/40 funds but my view has been vindicated by investors and markets. Below is an extract from investoepdia which does exactly that and actually makes quite exciting reading, if you're into such things: “You cannot invest in one future anymore; you have to invest in multiple futures,” Rice said. “The things that drove 60/40 portfolios to work are broken. The old 60/40 portfolio did the things that clients wanted, but those two asset classes alone cannot provide that anymore. It was convenient, it was easy, and it's over. We don't trust stocks and bonds completely to do the job of providing income, growth, inflation protection, and downside protection anymore.” And when we talked about adding things other than traditional bonds to the fund, including pocket lint, this piece gives masterclass on that aspect: "Rice went on to cite the endowment fund of Yale University as a prime example of how traditional stocks and bonds were no longer adequate to produce material growth with manageable risk. This fund currently has only 5% of its portfolio allocated to stocks and 6% in mainstream bonds of any kind, and the other 89% is allocated in other alternative sectors and asset classes. While the allocation of a single portfolio cannot, of course, be used to make broad-based predictions, the fact that this is the lowest allocation to stocks and bonds in the fund’s history is significant". www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-advisors/011916/why-6040-portfolio-no-longer-good-enough.aspThe operative word is "traditional", once again, the term 60/40 must always be qualified.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jan 14, 2023 5:51:50 GMT 7
It's been a month.
My safe as houses funds have more than proved their worth, I can highly recommend CGT, PNL and RICA, if you can get into them at the right time. I'm now up 2% over one year (exc. divi's) whereas the higher risk, heavily laden equities funds I was tracking are still -18% over the same period. I calculate my loss since the start of the fall in markets is equal to the loss of one years return on my investments, money that I never made. Trying to factor in the loss to inflation doesn't seem sensible since my alternative to what I hold now would mean holding cash hence I am currently ahead.
Getting in is one of the challenges, getting out is the second. I had added 8% of a lower risk equities fund, Royal London Global Select, which is multi-manager and is quite risk averse, that has come along very nicely. Today I'm 40% equities, 30% cash and the remainder in bonds, metals and risk avoidance products.
My strategy is to hold fire until the results of the current earnings season, now underway, become clear and then to deploy cash into FEV and other equities funds whilst reducing the likes of PNL over time.
The more I have read, the more I believe that Buy and Hold can be a sound strategy, but ONLY with a couple of caveats. 1) Investors need to have a lot of time in front of them if they are to minimize risk, at least 10 years. 2) Investors also need to understand that Buy and Hold doesn't mean buy and forget or buy and do nothing! When bad or negative things happen to impact your buy and hold investments, you have to be prepared to act, even if that risks appearing to abandon your strategy or appearing to time the market.
But, the fat lady hasn't begun to sing yet so there's still a way to go, nevertheless, so far so good.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Mar 9, 2023 8:35:10 GMT 7
Two months later where are we?
The herd got ahead of itself and started a mini-bear market rally which the Fed Chair slapped down yesterday, "did you forget what I said earlier, were you not listening or not paying attention", he effectively said. Inflation isn't coming down so the prospect of 0.50% rate increases are back on the table.......markets will love that, not!
The problem is there is too much money around, all chasing yield, even the slightest hope of an upturn sees people piling in. And what are the choices, investment grade bonds, dividend income, many can't pick those easily and yearn instead for the good old days of whole percentage point, daily increases in the index. In truth, CD's and bank accounts are appealing, cash may be a devaluing asset but only in line with inflation, the risk of loss in equities is far greater and more immediate. And Asia/EM isn't looking too bright, funds outflow as the lure of 6% on USD beckons, who wouldn't settle for 6%, I would.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Mar 27, 2023 5:59:56 GMT 7
It's been a while, let me share with you the current state of my investments and the rationale. Maybe there’s a discussion to be had somewhere, constructive comments/observations are always welcome. I currently hold 21% in Cash. Of the funds I have invested, 47% are in equities and 34% are in bonds and other instruments. Sliced another way, 38% is in Wealth preservation funds (RICA, PNL, CGT), 41% in equities (only) and the rest is in cash. Geographically, the picture looks like this: US - 29% (includes global tracker element) UK - 18% (includes UK FTSE tracker) EU - 15% Asia Dev - 13% EM - 15% Aus - 4% Japan - 6% Notes: 5% of the UK is in an iShares FTSE tracker I hold two Asia/EM funds, one is 35% in China, and the other is 32% in India. HSBC All World tracker = 7% 7% is held in iShares Global Corporate Bonds fund (9,000 holdings), investment grade (BBB or better) with an effective duration of 5%. The highest PE is 21 followed by 17, highest vol is 16. KiiD Risk = 30% is Medium High, 35% is Medium Low, and 35% is low or Cash. MS Risk = 2 x AA, the rest is all BA or Low. Royal London Global Equity, Fidelity Europe, and F&C are my equity mainstays, Fidelity Europe is my highest risk/most volatile. I think the worst of the interest rate rises are behind us, ergo, high-grade credit-worthy corporate bonds are a reasonable bet in the interests of diversification. India and China are massive economies that warrant full attention. JPM’s quarterly Asset Allocation report is helpful to confirm holdings that should be under/overweight or neutral. I’m 2.2% below peak holdings, excluding divi’s. Fletchsmile
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jun 8, 2023 7:13:30 GMT 7
Some of you may remember that 18 months ago I modelled rgs's investment holdings using Trustnet, at the time I was aghast at the amount of risk he'd taken on, compared to my much lower risk holdings. Well, I have continued to follow that portfolio almost daily, along side my own, as a learning exercise and there have been some very positive developments, I even stole one of rgs's fund ideas and am considering a second one. Many of rgs's holdings are recovering but a couple are still languishing, Edinburg, SMT and Monks still look ugly. But Fidelity European IT looked very sensible and recovered before anything else so I added that to my holdings.....thanks for the idea rgs, wherever you might be.
Bankers Trust, Polar and Mid Wynd all have reasonably low Beta's but they are not get rich quick funds by any means. Each has a low alpha so they are perhaps a safer pair of hands that are slowly recovering. I prefered F&C IT over a year ago and that proved to be an excellent choice because the income is consistent and the losses have been small, I'm up over 14%. The wealth protection funds have had their day, I've been reducing them over time until I've only got 20% invested, mostly in PNL which has good dividends. Another very good choice I made over a year ago was Royal London Global Equity Select which has been a solid performer in good times and resilient during falls, that's up almost 10% in eight months.
Perhaps these things will help somebody or at least, provide food for thought.
Lastly, I've invested in a couple of trackers, HSBC Global FTSE World, an S&P tracker and a FTSE UK tracker. Despite the overlap I think it's OK to place heavier emphasis in some key markets such as the FTSE and the S&P whilst trying to cover global markets generically, also.
Today I'm about 20% in trackers, 20% in wealth funds, around 35% in equities and the rest in cash. Geographically I hold: US 36% UK 18% EU 15% Asia Dev11% EM 13% Japan 4% Aus 4%
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Moobin
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Post by Moobin on Aug 7, 2023 11:29:19 GMT 7
I am in the processs of cashing out my Thai porvident fund and will be investing the money elsewhere. Not sure where elsewhere is at the moment though, as everything is as clear as mud. Probably mainly mutuals but not sure which sector or geographic area. Any suggestions? FYI all my money is in Thailand.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 7, 2023 18:02:09 GMT 7
I am in the processs of cashing out my Thai porvident fund and will be investing the money elsewhere. Not sure where elsewhere is at the moment though, as everything is as clear as mud. Probably mainly mutuals but not sure which sector or geographic area. Any suggestions? FYI all my money is in Thailand. I'm sorry, I can't begin to help with this, if you're still in contact with AyG he may be able to help, perhaps send him a PM? Alternatively, Fletchsmile is almost certainly current on the Thai market, perhaps he can comment? .
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 8, 2023 7:48:21 GMT 7
Two months on I have now deployed all but 2% of my cash, here's what I've done and how it's worked out so far:
I've gone for 65/35, equities/bonds. I have some funds invested in Fixed Income, mostly Strategic Bond Funds but my biggest bond holding is the Vanguard Global Bond Index. I'm using Royal London Short Term Money Markets to hold cash I want to invest later, just so it's earning something. I hear what some say about the inverse relationship between bonds and equities but I think what happened previously when they became positively corelated, was a limited event, for the past two months they have been negatively correlated so fingers crossed.
Royal London Global Equities is my biggest single equities fund holding at 15%, fortunately it has performed very well and is up over 13% and there seems to have been only very minor downside losses from time to time.
I'm holding a half dozen or more other equities funds that are all spread across multiple territories. 42% of my equities are in the US, 17% in Europe and 13% in the UK. I'm using a FTSE 100 tracker to cover the UK as well as HSBC FTSE All World. I'm at risk of over diversification although I don't think I'm at that point yet, the swings and roundabouts of daily market movements are balancing out nicely whilst returning solid returns on the good days. I've also converted nearly all my funds to INC.
Overall I'm ahead 4.2% which is close to the interest rate I could get from my platform provider, if I held cash! But the upside to cash is limited so I'm happy with my current risk level which is equities funds that are 52% above average.
Lastly, I continue to monitor some of the high risk funds that produced such stellar returns until the crash, sadly, it looks like Global Healthcare Trust is down 91%, others continue to sustain 50% losses, frightening. I've adopted a new stance whereby if anything drops more than 5%, I act on it. But isn't that gambling and not investing I hear you say? Possibly, but at age 73 years I don't have a guaranteed 10 years to wait for market recovery if things crash tomorrow.
Single country funds? Never again!!!
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 8, 2023 9:00:49 GMT 7
Correction: Global Healthcare Trust did a 10:1 stock split, which is why their price fell. That said, the other high risk funds didn't and several remain down by 50% or more.
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Moobin
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Post by Moobin on Aug 9, 2023 19:05:01 GMT 7
Thanks for the suggestion chiangmai.
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