AyG
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Post by AyG on Aug 17, 2022 16:28:57 GMT 7
I prefer to go with a managed fund that has the potential to beat the index by a greater margin. I also prefer that FM's are able to switch in and out of different geo markets, as economic circumstances dictate. And yet you totally ignore the evidence. The trust has failed to beat the index (as evinced by the ETF which tracks the index after fees) over five years, has failed to use its ability to provide enhanced performance over the period, and has a far larger maximum draw down during the period (i.e. is more risky). In other words, you prefer to go with a . Still, if you prefer losers, sobeit.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 17, 2022 16:51:33 GMT 7
I prefer to go with a managed fund that has the potential to beat the index by a greater margin. I also prefer that FM's are able to switch in and out of different geo markets, as economic circumstances dictate. And yet you totally ignore the evidence. The trust has failed to beat the index (as evinced by the ETF which tracks the index after fees) over five years, has failed to use its ability to provide enhanced performance over the period, and has a far larger maximum draw down during the period (i.e. is more risky). In other words, you prefer to go with a . Still, if you prefer losers, sobeit. Yawn.....it's like walking across the meadow and stepping in cow dung but never being quite able to get it off your shoes completely, it always seems to be there.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Aug 17, 2022 20:51:02 GMT 7
Up to you, I don't think there's that much in it. In fact the discreet performance comparison of the two funds shows F&C to be the more profitable holding for 4 out of 5 years, with the exception of the 36-48 months timeframe. If you like ETF's go for it, I prefer to go with a managed fund that has the potential to beat the index by a greater margin. I also prefer that FM's are able to switch in and out of different geo markets, as economic circumstances dictate. The tide comes in and the tide goes out, nothing more than a snapshot in time. Not all markets or funds will behave the same way at the same time, shifting sands and all that.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 17, 2022 21:27:58 GMT 7
Up to you, I don't think there's that much in it. In fact the discreet performance comparison of the two funds shows F&C to be the more profitable holding for 4 out of 5 years, with the exception of the 36-48 months timeframe. If you like ETF's go for it, I prefer to go with a managed fund that has the potential to beat the index by a greater margin. I also prefer that FM's are able to switch in and out of different geo markets, as economic circumstances dictate. The tide comes in and the tide goes out, nothing more than a snapshot in time. Not all markets or funds will behave the same way at the same time, shifting sands and all that. Yes of course, only retards or the unduly argumentative think otherwise.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 18, 2022 8:51:46 GMT 7
Food for thought. Back to this old chestnut again.....market timing:
Investopedia defines market timing as, "Market timing is the act of moving investment money in or out of a financial market—or switching funds between asset classes—based on predictive methods. If investors can predict when the market will go up and down, they can make trades to turn that market move into a profit.
There is a fine line between predictive market timing and a normal response to geo. political events that may or may not have economic consequences, one intends to refer to the future whilst the other refers to current or past events. A second aspect is a motive and the logic that is deployed.... is potential market movement the driver for making the change or is the change being made because of the nature and scale of the underlying event, ie, am I greedy or am I afraid of the scale and nature of the event.
The operative word here is "predict" or to estimate or anticipate something in advance. I think that is quite different from responding to events that have already taken place or are currently underway. If economic recovery following the covid pandemic appears patchy and inflation begins to bite, plus a new war in Ukraine disrupts food and energy supplies, is getting out of the markets or reducing holdings or changing asset classes regarded as market timing? I say no, I say those things are a common-sense reaction. Hairy chest types will disagree of course, they will tell us that we must remain in our seats and hold on, because in due course, at some unspecified point in the future, normal service will be resumed. When the herd sells into a falling market they are selling because everyone else is and all they see is a falling index, is the herd timing the market? When buyers come out in droves at the start of a bull market and buy everything in sight, are they timing the market? When FM's rotate out of growth stocks and into value stocks, are they timing the market? If you continue that logic, everything an investor does can be considered to be, timing the market!
I think that what is intended by market timing is when an investor believes an event(s) will take place in the future and they attempt to position themselves accordingly to maximize their position, solely for financial gain. One might argue that all events result in some form of market adjustment so once again it comes back to motive.....I think.
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rubl
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Post by rubl on Aug 18, 2022 10:01:06 GMT 7
Prediction could be self-fulfilling or occasionally disastrous. I know, too general stated but I think at this moment only (very) short term and very long term can be 'predicted' (assuming we don't want to believe in "The End is Near" ). The foolish war Putin is waging in Ukraine, the American GOP turning into a Trump only party, the Chinese getting impatient, Hunger leading to more people on the move to greener pastures, the rise of far off right in Europe (E.U. and U.K. that is). Tjeez, and here I am, going for the personal 100 year mark. Of course, being an optimist, I can only say "things look good (for now)"
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rubl
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Post by rubl on Aug 19, 2022 10:21:25 GMT 7
Luckily I know nothing about this, I'll stick to computers and annoying people here "Europe's energy crisis will spark steep contractions across the continent's economies, says top analyst Europe's worsening energy crisis will cause economies to contract in 2023, according to Amrita Sen, director of research at Energy Aspects. Due to higher natural gas prices, European gross domestic product will decline by 1.4% next year, she told Bloomberg TV. "The burden of high gas and oil prices will actually mean that we are going to see some steep contraction in the European economies next year."" markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/europe-energy-crisis-natural-gas-prices-economy-forecast-amrita-sen-2022-8
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 20, 2022 8:40:14 GMT 7
In case you missed it, a few very appropriate words of wisdom from Mr Munger, even more relevant today:
"If you're not a little confused about what's going on, you don't understand it" --- Charlie Munger May 1, 2021. 9:18 PM · May 1, 2021
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 21, 2022 7:32:44 GMT 7
August is an odd time for investing when many professional and institutional investors are on holiday, this year is no exception since everyone is waiting for the Fed meeting in September to learn the size of the interest rate increase. Will the increase be 0.50% or will it be 0.75%, the lower number will validate the bulls recent buying sprees, the latter could see significant markets falls. Almost everyone has different reasons for holding the view that they do about where we are and what will happen. The likes of CGT, PNL and RICA have all recently reduced their equities holdings to super low levels, 25%, 34% and 19% respectively at the most recent reading. The now departed Hamish Baillie was almost apocalyptic in his assessment of what will happen although he does seem to have been caught out on the wrong side of the recent market surge so what else could he say! Then there's the data, where there's no consensus view and different pictures emerge with every new set of numbers, it truly is a constant flip flop. One interesting sound bite that keeps being mentioned is that statistically, retail investors have not fled the markets in the way they might be expected to in the face of a recession. One possible answer is that a larger portion of today's investors have never experienced a recession and don't understand what might happen. Another possible answer is, if they do exit the markets, what will they do with the funds, there are no obvious easy options? One thing is very clear, now is not the time to speculate in the markets, unless you're an out-and-out gambler. If markets do surge in September we'll never hear the end of it, see, I told you, you can't time the market...if they fall there will be plenty of pain. Personally, I'm happy to be one-third equities, one-third other and one-third cash and I don't plan to change that any time soon, even if it means missing out on some easy profit.
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rubl
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Post by rubl on Aug 21, 2022 9:22:01 GMT 7
Life ain't easy. I just read that if you order a Lamborghini now you may have to wait till 2024 before you get it. Surely that could 'drive' you to
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 21, 2022 9:31:44 GMT 7
Life ain't easy. I just read that if you order a Lamborghini now you may have to wait till 2024 before you get it. Surely that could 'drive' you to My wife and I put our name on the list to buy a Morgan 2+2 in 1985, the wait at the time was over 11 years. We drank a lot in subsequent years so you may be correct.
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rubl
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Post by rubl on Aug 21, 2022 9:35:40 GMT 7
Life ain't easy. I just read that if you order a Lamborghini now you may have to wait till 2024 before you get it. Surely that could 'drive' you to My wife and I put our name on the list to buy a Morgan 2+2 in 1985, the wait at the time was over 11 years. We drank a lot in subsequent years so you may be correct. So what's the fun of making nice profits if you're unable to spent it wisely?
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 23, 2022 7:20:12 GMT 7
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Sept 2, 2022 5:10:13 GMT 7
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Sept 2, 2022 6:31:53 GMT 7
^^^ Another junk article. The better performing scenario B is only so because it assumes that equity exposure was cut for two years in a bear market. That is all done with the benefit of hindsight. In 2008 no one could have predicted what the market would do next, or for how long. As John Maynard Keynes said, “Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".
As for your "a buy and hold strategy which doesn't work well in an inflationary environment", what's the alternative? Equities are still going to outperform cash - cash is just a wasting asset.
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