chiangmai
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THB
Sept 8, 2022 16:20:50 GMT 7
Post by chiangmai on Sept 8, 2022 16:20:50 GMT 7
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siampolee
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Alive alive O
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THB
Sept 8, 2022 18:22:53 GMT 7
Post by siampolee on Sept 8, 2022 18:22:53 GMT 7
And they are the acknowledged figures created by the creative accounting system(s) so beloved by the authorities in the alternative world of economics...
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rubl
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THB
Sept 9, 2022 11:17:20 GMT 7
Post by rubl on Sept 9, 2022 11:17:20 GMT 7
Of course COVID-19 and Putin's silly war in Ukraine have resulted in many countries 'supporting' their people and economies. Some more, some less. For every country context might be different making for difficult comparisons.
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chiangmai
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THB
Sept 9, 2022 13:25:43 GMT 7
Post by chiangmai on Sept 9, 2022 13:25:43 GMT 7
Of course COVID-19 and Putin's silly war in Ukraine have resulted in many countries 'supporting' their people and economies. Some more, some less. For every country context might be different making for difficult comparisons. The Foreign Currency Reserves are outside the scope of the things you mention. They are not owned by government, they are owned by the BOT who may only use them for specific purposes, defense of the currency being one.
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rubl
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THB
Sept 9, 2022 13:40:26 GMT 7
Post by rubl on Sept 9, 2022 13:40:26 GMT 7
Of course COVID-19 and Putin's silly war in Ukraine have resulted in many countries 'supporting' their people and economies. Some more, some less. For every country context might be different making for difficult comparisons. The Foreign Currency Reserves are outside the scope of the things you mention. They are not owned by government, they are owned by the BOT who may only use them for specific purposes, defense of the currency being one. Down $36 bill. in 11 months. Surely that's not only defense of Baht, 1997 did teach them some things (I hope).
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chiangmai
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THB
Sept 9, 2022 13:55:25 GMT 7
Post by chiangmai on Sept 9, 2022 13:55:25 GMT 7
The Foreign Currency Reserves are outside the scope of the things you mention. They are not owned by government, they are owned by the BOT who may only use them for specific purposes, defense of the currency being one. Down $36 bill. in 11 months. Surely that's not only defense of Baht, 1997 did teach them some things (I hope). Yes of course. The reserves are held in 24 different currencies plus gold and SDR's but are accounted for in USD. When those assets are repriced using a devalued Baht, that accounts of much of the difference.
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rubl
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THB
Sept 9, 2022 14:03:47 GMT 7
Post by rubl on Sept 9, 2022 14:03:47 GMT 7
Down $36 bill. in 11 months. Surely that's not only defense of Baht, 1997 did teach them some things (I hope). Yes of course. The reserves are held in 24 different currencies plus gold and SDR's but are accounted for in USD. When those assets are repriced using a devalued Baht, that accounts of much of the difference. Even without snow stockpiling oil might make sense and brings us back to my original comment on other countries doing something similar. IMHO.
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siampolee
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THB
Sept 9, 2022 15:04:59 GMT 7
Post by siampolee on Sept 9, 2022 15:04:59 GMT 7
Whatever the cost the taxpayer has to foot the bill, governments are but spendthrifts with other people's monies
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Post by rgs2001uk on Sept 9, 2022 21:07:43 GMT 7
Hang on in there lads, for all you Brits prepare yourselves for parity with the US Dollar, 35 baht to the peso is inbound.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Sept 10, 2022 7:06:58 GMT 7
A fall to 35 against the Pound assumes that the Pound will continue to fall and that the Baht will continue to rise, I don't see that the Thai economy has anywhere close to the ammunition needed to rise substantially. With the Baht at 36 to USD, exports are cheap but China isn't buying, plus the Chinese housing market is teetering on the edge of a substantial fall which will limit visitors even further. Tourists numbers to Thailand are up but the spend is down by almost 15%, whoever would have guessed that Indian tourists are low spenders! I see more and more people are climbing on the missing USD 40bill. of foreign currency reserves bandwagon. Let me say it again, Foreign Currency Reserves of USD 260 billion, 18 months ago, were based on a USD/THB rate of 30. Today, the rate is 36 to USD, around 20% lower, 20% of USD 260 bill is USD -52 bill. (given the different currencies involved and the time frame in my example, it's easily possible to account for a valuation loss of at least USD 30 bill.) As for the rest.....it is after all BOT's job to intervene in the FOREX market to smooth out peaks and troughs in the Baht exchange rate, their managed floating peg under IMF rules gives them that right. A storm in a teacup, it's more about mischief making than real news. www.tutor2u.net/economics/reference/exchange-rates-managed-floating-currencies#:~:text=A%20managed%20floating%20exchange%20rate,as%20a%20%E2%80%9Cdirty%20float%E2%80%9D.
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THB
Sept 12, 2022 21:37:22 GMT 7
Post by rgs2001uk on Sept 12, 2022 21:37:22 GMT 7
A fall to 35 against the Pound assumes that the Pound will continue to fall and that the Baht will continue to rise, I don't see that the Thai economy has anywhere close to the ammunition needed to rise substantially. With the Baht at 36 to USD, exports are cheap but China isn't buying, plus the Chinese housing market is teetering on the edge of a substantial fall which will limit visitors even further. Tourists numbers to Thailand are up but the spend is down by almost 15%, whoever would have guessed that Indian tourists are low spenders! I see more and more people are climbing on the missing USD 40bill. of foreign currency reserves bandwagon. Let me say it again, Foreign Currency Reserves of USD 260 billion, 18 months ago, were based on a USD/THB rate of 30. Today, the rate is 36 to USD, around 20% lower, 20% of USD 260 bill is USD -52 bill. (given the different currencies involved and the time frame in my example, it's easily possible to account for a valuation loss of at least USD 30 bill.) As for the rest.....it is after all BOT's job to intervene in the FOREX market to smooth out peaks and troughs in the Baht exchange rate, their managed floating peg under IMF rules gives them that right. A storm in a teacup, it's more about mischief making than real news. www.tutor2u.net/economics/reference/exchange-rates-managed-floating-currencies#:~:text=A%20managed%20floating%20exchange%20rate,as%20a%20%E2%80%9Cdirty%20float%E2%80%9D. Correct me if I am wrong, but I dont think it works like that, I thought there was no direct Pound/Baht exchange rate, its all Dollar based?
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THB
Sept 12, 2022 21:37:59 GMT 7
Post by rgs2001uk on Sept 12, 2022 21:37:59 GMT 7
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Sept 13, 2022 6:28:29 GMT 7
A fall to 35 against the Pound assumes that the Pound will continue to fall and that the Baht will continue to rise, I don't see that the Thai economy has anywhere close to the ammunition needed to rise substantially. With the Baht at 36 to USD, exports are cheap but China isn't buying, plus the Chinese housing market is teetering on the edge of a substantial fall which will limit visitors even further. Tourists numbers to Thailand are up but the spend is down by almost 15%, whoever would have guessed that Indian tourists are low spenders! I see more and more people are climbing on the missing USD 40bill. of foreign currency reserves bandwagon. Let me say it again, Foreign Currency Reserves of USD 260 billion, 18 months ago, were based on a USD/THB rate of 30. Today, the rate is 36 to USD, around 20% lower, 20% of USD 260 bill is USD -52 bill. (given the different currencies involved and the time frame in my example, it's easily possible to account for a valuation loss of at least USD 30 bill.) As for the rest.....it is after all BOT's job to intervene in the FOREX market to smooth out peaks and troughs in the Baht exchange rate, their managed floating peg under IMF rules gives them that right. A storm in a teacup, it's more about mischief making than real news. www.tutor2u.net/economics/reference/exchange-rates-managed-floating-currencies#:~:text=A%20managed%20floating%20exchange%20rate,as%20a%20%E2%80%9Cdirty%20float%E2%80%9D. Correct me if I am wrong, but I dont think it works like that, I thought there was no direct Pound/Baht exchange rate, its all Dollar based? How dare you post a trashy inaccurate article, don't you know that's my job, I'm not having it........ More seriously.....Yes, you are correct, as far as the FOREX system is concerned, the relative value of GBP to THB is derived from the Pounds relationship with the US Dollar thus there is no direct FOREX market relationship between Pound and Baht. BUT, the absolute value is determined by interbank dealers who are not bound to strictly adhere to a one to one relationship and who will consider other aspects of the currency, this is especially appropriate since THB is a very small boutique currency by comparison to the Pound. The fact the Pound has fallen against USD is a function of USD strength and doesn't have much to do with the strength or weakness of the UK economy as compared to the strength or weakness of the Thai economy, both the Baht and the Pound are falling in a similar fashion. BOT has intervened to try and smooth the falls in the Baht whereas the Pound floats freely without intervention. The Pound is a reserve currency from a substantially larger more robust economy, all those things make the Pound a more desirable currency to hold which prevent it from falling against THB at the same rate and speed as it has against USD. If the Thai economy had grown in such a way as to point towards remarkable strength or weakness, the Baht's value against the Pound would increase except that hasn't happened. Both the UK and Thailand are in similar boats where both countries are increasingly worried about high borrowings, Thailand for the first time in a long time. It's only the recent advent of increasing tourist numbers that has caused the Baht to strengthen and that can be a fickle indicator. As we're now finding out, the tourist numbers are up but the spend per capita is down, plus tourist numbers are dictated by a lockdown in China, very high airline ticket costs and high inflation in the source countries which makes overseas travel less attractive - it may well be that flooding in the near future becomes yet another tourism risk factor.
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chiangmai
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THB
Sept 13, 2022 8:07:26 GMT 7
Post by chiangmai on Sept 13, 2022 8:07:26 GMT 7
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AyG
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Sept 13, 2022 9:37:32 GMT 7
Post by AyG on Sept 13, 2022 9:37:32 GMT 7
The Pound is a reserve currency from a substantially larger more robust economy ... but one becoming smaller and less robust by the day.
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