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Post by rgs2001uk on Dec 15, 2017 22:03:37 GMT 7
Is there a simple or easy way to assess the risk of an IT? Most UT's and OEIC's are rated independently by various bodies so their overall risk rating is quite easy to identify, unless I've missed something, that's not the case with IT's. Back in the day, I used to read, then re read a magazine called What Investment trust, I then re read it again, and made notes, after a month I would re read it and make choices. This was pre the days of internet and every tom dick and somchai airing their views. Pre excel days and setting up benchmarks and simple performance charts. The problem today, information overload, every prick has their views, the best thing is to tune in (turn on and drop out to the chatter and white noise). Morning Star used to do benchamark comparison charts.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Dec 15, 2017 22:14:45 GMT 7
Is there a simple or easy way to assess the risk of an IT? Most UT's and OEIC's are rated independently by various bodies so their overall risk rating is quite easy to identify, unless I've missed something, that's not the case with IT's. Trustnet has similar info for both unit trusts and investment trusts and is quite good. You can look at various sectors, managers etc, as well as drill down into an individual IT. Shows various analysis and ratios like volatility, and their own FE score which rates risk relative to FTSE100 eg Witan www2.trustnet.com/Factsheets/Factsheet.aspx?fundCode=ITWTAN&univ=TUnder the performance section you can also see how the discount to NAV has been moving. For example: - Over 5 years NAV has increased by 112.8%, but share price has increased by 137.7%. That's around 25% points extra and would make a big difference to returns. This highlights how someone thinking there return might be only around +/-10% different and even out in the long run may get a very pleasant surprise. On the other hand, they could also have received 25% less had it gone the other way ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/smiley.png) - In 2016 share price gained only around 18.4% compared to 23.2% on NAV; but in 2013 and 2014 the share price gained around 8% more in both years than NAV - In the last 5 years it's swung from a 13% discount to NAV up to 2% premium. A swing of 15 ppts Go to the bottom left of that link, funnily enough, I hold 3 out of the 5 mentioned. I dont claim to be an expert, but there comes a time when I devolp a sixth sense, its hard to explain, but when you understand it, you will know what I mean.. One of the advantages of holding Alliane, the divis are reinvested. One of the drawbacks of having a stockbroker account, they are not, Hence I used to look at my divis each year, and reinvest at least 50% back into what I held, 40% into others, and 10% for me was a free roll of the dice, some have done well others havent. The other day I offloaded, Henderson FE income JP Morgan Emerg Markets Law & debenture. Centrica And finally Severn Trent. As already mentioned, the money went elsewhere. Question, how long do you hold onto a stock, before you bend over and say, sorry enough is enough? I am not a trader on a daily basis, i check regularly, pull up some performance charts and set a benchmark.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Dec 16, 2017 4:59:25 GMT 7
Is there a simple or easy way to assess the risk of an IT? Most UT's and OEIC's are rated independently by various bodies so their overall risk rating is quite easy to identify, unless I've missed something, that's not the case with IT's. Back in the day, I used to read, then re read a magazine called What Investment trust, I then re read it again, and made notes, after a month I would re read it and make choices. This was pre the days of internet and every tom dick and somchai airing their views. Pre excel days and setting up benchmarks and simple performance charts. The problem today, information overload, every prick has their views, the best thing is to tune in (turn on and drop out to the chatter and white noise). Morning Star used to do benchamark comparison charts. I agree there's always the long and trusted route but I was looking for an initial short cut, something to pass/fail through the first cut. For IT's and OIEC's I like a combination of Morningstar and LIPPER, it looks like the FE score that Fletch mentions is probably the answer but I was looking for something more robust.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Dec 22, 2017 18:14:53 GMT 7
We've arrived at that point in time where year-end accounting is in order, whilst the year is not well and truly over yet, the performance of my portfolio's looks like this:
Pension - Net YTD increase = 7.68%, based on a revamp of holdings in September.
Personal Portfolio - Newly established in early October, Net YTD increase = 2.7%
How did you do or don't you know yet?
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Dec 22, 2017 19:06:19 GMT 7
We've arrived at that point in time where year-end accounting is in order, whilst the year is not well and truly over yet, the performance of my portfolio's looks like this: Pension - Net YTD increase = 7.68%, based on a revamp of holdings in September. Personal Portfolio - Newly established in early October, Net YTD increase = 2.7% How did you do or don't you know yet? In what currency are you accounting? Are you including income? Anyway, in Sterling, year to date (figures from Morningstar): - 8 have returned more than 20%. My top performer (IIT) returned 70.6%. - 11 returned 10-20% - 8 returned 0-10% - and there were two losers: a US TIPS ETF, and BlackRock Gold & General - both losing around 5 1/2 percent. The BlackRock fund I've recently sold. My patience has simply run out. I've also sold BRWM and JP Morgan Natural Resources. No more mining/commodities/natural resources for me. I have, however, opened a small position in Baillie GIfford Japanese. I'd have preferred the Investment Trust, but the premium to NAV is to rich for me. This is the first time in 20 years I've held a Japan fund - despite my love of the country, and having worked for Japanese investment companies/brokers for most of my professional life. I'll do my full reckoning on January 1st.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Dec 22, 2017 19:40:27 GMT 7
We've arrived at that point in time where year-end accounting is in order, whilst the year is not well and truly over yet, the performance of my portfolio's looks like this: Pension - Net YTD increase = 7.68%, based on a revamp of holdings in September. Personal Portfolio - Newly established in early October, Net YTD increase = 2.7% How did you do or don't you know yet? In what currency are you accounting? Are you including income? Anyway, in Sterling, year to date (figures from Morningstar): - 8 have returned more than 20%. My top performer (IIT) returned 70.6%. - 11 returned 10-20% - 8 returned 0-10% - and there were two losers: a US TIPS ETF, and BlackRock Gold & General - both losing around 5 1/2 percent. The BlackRock fund I've recently sold. My patience has simply run out. I've also sold BRWM and JP Morgan Natural Resources. No more mining/commodities/natural resources for me. I have, however, opened a small position in Baillie GIfford Japanese. I'd have preferred the Investment Trust, but the premium to NAV is to rich for me. This is the first time in 20 years I've held a Japan fund - despite my love of the country, and having worked for Japanese investment companies/brokers for most of my professional life. I'll do my full reckoning on January 1st. If I include income the numbers obviously increase but I haven't factored that in, perhaps I will. Accounting in GBP. Also, my numbers are from my holdings, less (rather high) platform and buying fees. Bear in my that my portfolios are 60/40 equity/bonds and performance is really only based on three and four months respectively. Like you I have one or two funds that have returned double digits but given the narrow timeframe involved, only a partial year, it's hard to annualise them sensibly. I'll revisit also after 1 Jan. and will post a final view and perhaps extrapolate over one year also. BTW Lindsell Train Global and FIdelity Asia were my stars.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Dec 22, 2017 21:03:47 GMT 7
We've arrived at that point in time where year-end accounting is in order, whilst the year is not well and truly over yet, the performance of my portfolio's looks like this: Pension - Net YTD increase = 7.68%, based on a revamp of holdings in September. Personal Portfolio - Newly established in early October, Net YTD increase = 2.7% How did you do or don't you know yet? In what currency are you accounting? Are you including income? Anyway, in Sterling, year to date (figures from Morningstar): - 8 have returned more than 20%. My top performer (IIT) returned 70.6%. - 11 returned 10-20% - 8 returned 0-10% - and there were two losers: a US TIPS ETF, and BlackRock Gold & General - both losing around 5 1/2 percent. The BlackRock fund I've recently sold. My patience has simply run out. I've also sold BRWM and JP Morgan Natural Resources. No more mining/commodities/natural resources for me.I have, however, opened a small position in Baillie GIfford Japanese. I'd have preferred the Investment Trust, but the premium to NAV is to rich for me. This is the first time in 20 years I've held a Japan fund - despite my love of the country, and having worked for Japanese investment companies/brokers for most of my professional life. I'll do my full reckoning on January 1st. Funnily enough, I mentioned the same thing in another thread.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Dec 22, 2017 21:38:32 GMT 7
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Dec 23, 2017 1:04:18 GMT 7
Just a couple of points: I'm holding a couple of those funds rg. so I've seen the same gains. But I haven't seen the full benefit of them because I'm only reporting three months not twelve. I'm also reporting an average across all funds and it is a number that is after all expenses which is why there's such a difference between us all. As I recall Fletch, earlier, had said he expected this year to make 5% across the board which makes 7.3% positively stellar.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Dec 23, 2017 6:53:35 GMT 7
I just did a quick calculation and if I include income, the net YTD return on my pension portfolio comes out at 11.3% although I have had to estimate the dividend income for two newer funds using historical payments from the web - that figure is an average across all funds in the portfolio based on actual current values from the platform and is net of all fees and commissions.
It's worth noting also that whilst I said previously the return on my pension fund, before I started tinkering with it, was around 7-8%, that number did not include income.
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Dec 23, 2017 8:37:52 GMT 7
As mention before off loaded some duffers the other week JP morgan Emerg Markets 30.4% You mentioned offloading JMG a few days ago. That had me scratching my head. Since then I've been back to look at recent performance. Looking at the Global Emerging Markets sector, and ignoring frontier market and infrastructure trusts, JMG comes second over 1 year, behind TEM. Over 3 and 5 years it's top. And over 10 years its second to GSS. I don't see anything there that would mean it's a "duffer" and, for the moment, I'll be holding on to it. That said, I've had a change of heart about "Emerging Markets" as an asset class. For most such trusts/funds, some 60-70% of investments are in Asia-Pacific. This is an overlap with my Asia-Pacific holdings. As someone living in SE Asia, do I really want exposure to Latin America or Africa? The Latin America performance is largely driven by commodity prices. That's not particularly appealing to me; I don't need the risk. Anyway, I sold my entire holding of Aberdeen Global Emerging Markets earlier this week. Performance has been poor for a number of years now, and the fees are way too high for a fund of this type and size. For the moment I'm hanging on to JMG and Templeton Emerging Markets Small Cap (fund), but am losing my conviction. At some point I expect completely to ditch Emerging Markets as an asset class.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Dec 23, 2017 15:07:36 GMT 7
^^^, correct, poor choice of words on my part.
I took the opportunity to cash in and take the profits. My thoughts were based on its performance over the last 5-10 years.
I no longer feel the need to have JP Morgan as part of my portfolio. I have already mentioned about O&G.
I am trying to reduce my holdings and consolidate into something I have (for the time being) faith in for the next 5-10 years.
I have just done a back of fag packet calculation, my stockbroker portfolio increased about 24% in the last year.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Dec 23, 2017 15:12:11 GMT 7
The stockbroker portfolio consists of the 8 already mentioned ITs, there are then 14 other stocks/shares held, thats 22 different stocks to keep an eye on, plus Alliance Trust, so in total 23. I no longer have the appetite for it.
I notice AyG, you have what, 29? Best of luck in managing that little lot.
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Dec 23, 2017 15:46:10 GMT 7
The stockbroker portfolio consists of the 8 already mentioned ITs, there are then 14 other stocks/shares held, thats 22 different stocks to keep an eye on, plus Alliance Trust, so in total 23. I no longer have the appetite for it. I notice AyG, you have what, 29? Best of luck in managing that little lot. I strictly limit myself to 30 or fewer holdings. My late father was a terrible investor. He'd see an article in a newspaper and buy what was recommended. He never, ever, sold. When I dealt with his estate I had something like 100 small investments to sort out. And this was from the days before wrappers, so I had to deal with each investment company individual, many of which had been bought or changed names several times. Whilst I'm not planning on dying ever (and so far, so good), I'd hate my executor to go through the same grief I did. There was one investment I never did manage to track down. 30 holdings is far too many for most investors. However, for me it's a hobby, and I enjoy the exercise. However, life is made a bit simpler for me since (a) I first allocate by asset class, and have a clear top level asset allocation plan, (2) within each major class I have a simply rule which equates to "two thirds large cap, one third small cap", (3) I never invest in individual stocks, and leave it to the fund manager to do the detailed research and decision making. I also take a long term view. My best performing investment this year was Independent Investment Trust. I bought it back in the mid 2000s. It then crashed spectacularly. However, I rated the manager, Max Ward, very highly, and held on. This year it's returned just over 70% and was the best performing IT. I think if one does one's initial research thoroughly and only invest in the best fund managers, then one really only need to reevaluate if the manager quits, or has serious personal issues. This again, makes monitoring a lot of holdings that much simpler. JMG I think I've held even longer than IIT, though memory may be playing tricks on me. I think I bought it when it was managed by Flemings, who I worked for at the time. The business was subsequently acquired by JP Morgan Asset Management. If right, that would mean I've held it since perhaps 2002 or 3.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Dec 24, 2017 5:03:03 GMT 7
We've arrived at that point in time where year-end accounting is in order, whilst the year is not well and truly over yet, the performance of my portfolio's looks like this: Pension - Net YTD increase = 7.68%, based on a revamp of holdings in September. Personal Portfolio - Newly established in early October, Net YTD increase = 2.7% How did you do or don't you know yet? In what currency are you accounting? Are you including income? Anyway, in Sterling, year to date (figures from Morningstar): - 8 have returned more than 20%. My top performer (IIT) returned 70.6%. - 11 returned 10-20% - 8 returned 0-10% - and there were two losers: a US TIPS ETF, and BlackRock Gold & General - both losing around 5 1/2 percent. The BlackRock fund I've recently sold. My patience has simply run out. I've also sold BRWM and JP Morgan Natural Resources. No more mining/commodities/natural resources for me. I have, however, opened a small position in Baillie GIfford Japanese. I'd have preferred the Investment Trust, but the premium to NAV is to rich for me. This is the first time in 20 years I've held a Japan fund - despite my love of the country, and having worked for Japanese investment companies/brokers for most of my professional life. I'll do my full reckoning on January 1st. I was attracted to Baillie Gifford Japanese when I was putting my investments together but decided on something with a broader country spread instead. That being said I remain attracted to that fund although I gather Sarak Whitely has now announced her retirement so I wonder if it won't go the same way as Stewart Investors Asia Pacific Leaders.
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