AyG
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Post by AyG on Feb 10, 2018 8:54:18 GMT 7
The only exception to the above is Henderson (HDIV) which I realised a couple of months ago was a poor choice and its above average losses this time around merely confirm that. Their press statements a few weeks ago, combined with them cutting the dividend, all left me feeling nervous and uninspired. I find this all a bit odd. The reason that they cut the dividend was a good one: they wanted to reduce the level of risk by cutting their holdings of riskier (and higher yielding) assets. Being a closed ended fund they have an advantage over open ended ones in being able to invest in less liquid assets. This gives them a slight edge. Also, they can't be forced sellers; assuming there have been redemptions on open ended bond funds (a pretty reasonable assumption, I believe), then the fund managers will have been forced to sell at a low price, being unable to wait until the markets bounce back. This potentially locks in losses for all clients. The team is highly experienced, and one of the most talented in the industry. (Not just my opinion. Backed by a research article I recently read.) The fall in NAV over 1 week has been 2.00%, and over 1 month, 2.86%, which is actually pretty good. A fall in the discount (well, actually premium) to NAV accounts for the greater fall in share price. The discount/premium is already showing signs of bouncing back up. The trust now yields a solid 5.08%. That level of income is pretty much guaranteed. Indeed, it should go up when interest rates start to rise and issuers issue higher coupon bonds. In my opinion, with an investment like this, one should look at the steady stream of income it produces and not worry about short term wobbles in capital value.
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Mosha
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Post by Mosha on Feb 10, 2018 10:23:32 GMT 7
Not offering tips, but a workmate topped himself by tieing a noose round his bedroom door knob. I can think of better ways The truly desperate will always find a way.
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Post by Soutpeel on Feb 11, 2018 8:24:28 GMT 7
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The main topics that will be covered by this course are: 1. Fundamental analysis. 2. Technical analysis. 3. Sentimental analysis. 4. Risk assessment. 5. When is the right time to buy? 6. When is the right time to sell? 7. What kind of stocks to buy? 8. Developing investor personality traits. 9. How to manage your emotions? 10. Analysing world events from an investor's point of view. 11. Understanding compound interest. 12. Margin of safety. 13. How not to get cheated by stock manipulations (pump and dump). 14. Dividends and what to do with them. 15. Stock recommendations by your brokerage firm and how to think about them? 16. How to think about your stock broker and how to work with him? 17. Developing the skill of stock picking. 18. Short term investing strategies. 19. Medium term investing strategies. 20. Long term investing strategies. There will also be other topics covered as a lot of issues overlap each other. I believe it is great value for your money. Zkoty School of Investing - learn to multiply your money! Do you have the address where to send the cheque and does the course entitle me to a discount on Thai language classes? More importantly is this course blessed by his Holinesses the pope and endorsed by the Istituto per le Opere di Religione
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siampolee
Detective
Alive alive O
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Post by siampolee on Feb 11, 2018 9:14:37 GMT 7
It appears that the pope and his friends are currently engaged in some ''childish'' orientated activity studies elsewhere. Thus the Zloty School of Investment has created its own degree as a substitute for the papal version, which as said I have heard from a well informed source elsewhere is being used as a cover document for other more ''junior'' orientated successful papal activities. this below is a copy of that which I have just received from an asset elsewhere, the degree one is awarded upon completion of the Zloty School of Investing upon completing their course.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Feb 11, 2018 19:57:45 GMT 7
The only exception to the above is Henderson (HDIV) which I realised a couple of months ago was a poor choice and its above average losses this time around merely confirm that. Their press statements a few weeks ago, combined with them cutting the dividend, all left me feeling nervous and uninspired. .... Being a closed ended fund they have an advantage over open ended ones in being able to invest in less liquid assets. This gives them a slight edge. Also, they can't be forced sellers; assuming there have been redemptions on open ended bond funds (a pretty reasonable assumption, I believe), then the fund managers will have been forced to sell at a low price, being unable to wait until the markets bounce back. This potentially locks in losses for all clients. ..... It can be swings and roundabouts on this. e.g. other scenarios that can play out - In better times, an open ended fund can benefit from new inflows of money coming in. So if a new opportunity for a new holding comes up they can buy from new cash. On the other hand, the close end fund may have to sell an existing holding to enter a new opportunity. This may also have to be done at a poor timing for the existing holding if as you describe it is illiquid potentially destroying value or alternatively the new opportunity gets passed over. Even if the close ended fund does buy the new holding it will have two sets of costs a sell and a buy, compared to the buy only for the open ended fund - If the open-ended fund sells, it could sell based roughly on existing holdings. eg 10% of the fund redeemed, sell 10% of all holdings. So when markets bounce back the remaining 90% of unit holders get the same bounce back. Remember sales are done based on NAV for open ended funds. So in this case sellers would sell at the lower NAV and get less money for it, while holders just retain and get the NAV when it bounces back. A variation on this selling a representative sample of the portfolio, that doesn't alter significantly the profile of the fund. Similar sort of concept to replication of an index rather than holding every constituent, just in this case on the sell side rather than hold - In tough markets it's likely the discount to NAV on a closed fund will widen. So the closed end fund holder who sells can get hit with a double or even triple whammy. 1) NAV of illiquid bonds falls so share price of IT falls 2) discount widens worsening share price of IT 3) can't get the volume you want on sale at the price you want so may suffer further on price or not be able to get out at an acceptable price
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rubl
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
The wondering type
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Post by rubl on Feb 11, 2018 20:25:04 GMT 7
Too busy lazy to spent much time on this I covered for a slightly longer term of five or more years. Yes, I know, I could probably make more money if I paid more attention, spent hours on planning, etc., etc.
Well, I've got other things I like to do as well.
BTW I avoided bitcoins and other crypto stuff like the plague. Money which only has value if enough suckers believe in it doesn't really appeal to me.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Feb 11, 2018 20:25:36 GMT 7
BTW my best performing asset since I started investing is CG-LTF which has done great things at times. Thailand equity markets have held up quite well relatively over this pullback as well. Indices are down about 2.2% - 2.7% since end of Feb depending on which you look at SET/SET50/SET100 The Thai equity funds I hold have generally done a bit better than that. YTD they're all in positive territory too.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Feb 11, 2018 21:13:31 GMT 7
CM on your comment:
I've also been a bit disappointed with the performance of HDIV in recent years. Like yourself I've always liked the Henderson brand. In my early days I used to audit a lot of their unit trusts and investment trusts too.
The problem is, if I sell HDIV there isn't a great deal of choice in the IT sector for Global High Income. IPE is the only "other fund in this sector"
I've been looking at Invesco Perpetual Enhanced Income a bit, but haven't really spent much time on it. The historic performance stats are superior to HDIV, Below are 1m/3m/6m/1yr/3yr/5yr/10yr. The only period HDIV beat IPE is 3m, which doesn't really mean much.
Over 5 years IPE has returned double HDIV at 69.5% vs 34.8%, and over 10 years not far off double at 135.5% vs 72.8
C Invesco Perpetual Enhanced Income Limited -3.8% -5.1% 0.2% 7.4% 25.0% 69.5% 135.5% A Henderson Diversified Income Trust Plc Ord 1P -6.9% -3.7% -1.9% 3.0% 14.1% 34.8% 72.8%
The two Paul's that co-run the Invesco Perpetual IT together with another guy, are fund managers who I've held in the past via unit trusts. They have a good reputation, as does Invesco Perpetual
I probably want to do a bit more research, but with stats like those switching HDIV into IPE is a serious consideration.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Feb 12, 2018 9:08:50 GMT 7
Looking at the numbers this morning it seems as though the current fall/correction/crash might just be the gift that keeps on giving. I hope we don't need to change the title of this thread to, "how did you fare in the February/March correction"!
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Post by rgs2001uk on Feb 12, 2018 15:08:04 GMT 7
As a newbie to this field, it is abundantly clear that every commentator and their spouse has been trying to be the most recent one on record to predict the fall, there's an entire cottage industry that has emerged specialising in just that subject. Those that didn't win that game are now trying to win round two which is called, "the what happens next game". Honestly, I think the journo's and economic commentators are just as responsible for this downturn as bond yields are. True, these spin doctors and talking heads have been around for more than a few years, just ignore them.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Feb 12, 2018 18:19:30 GMT 7
Just had a look at swapping HDIV to IPE. One of the things I hate about ITs sometimes. The spreads are wide when I look at both HL and StanChart quotes. IPE bid-offer 76.4 - 78.4 (approx 2.5% spread) HDIV bid-offer 89.6 - 91.4 (approx 2% spread) Not that many trades going thru either and volumes look a bit weak. All recent trades are on the buy side for both too. So while one side might go thru easily the other may be some waiting around and may not go thru at all, which gets annoying In contrast for a unit trust I'd probably be doing both based on NAV with no bid-offer spread to suffer, and no messing around = knowing both sides will go thru at fair prices . Guess I'll have to be patient, as I don't want to suffer those spreads and then get caught only one side going thru. Next thing you know the day is over, and tomorrow the market shifts unfavourably for the gap
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Feb 13, 2018 6:45:21 GMT 7
Just had a look at swapping HDIV to IPE. One of the things I hate about ITs sometimes. The spreads are wide when I look at both HL and StanChart quotes. IPE bid-offer 76.4 - 78.4 (approx 2.5% spread) HDIV bid-offer 89.6 - 91.4 (approx 2% spread) Not that many trades going thru either and volumes look a bit weak. All recent trades are on the buy side for both too. So while one side might go thru easily the other may be some waiting around and may not go thru at all, which gets annoying In contrast for a unit trust I'd probably be doing both based on NAV with no bid-offer spread to suffer, and no messing around = knowing both sides will go thru at fair prices . Guess I'll have to be patient, as I don't want to suffer those spreads and then get caught only one side going thru. Next thing you know the day is over, and tomorrow the market shifts unfavourably for the gap Hmmm, in my case that would be 2%+, plus a 1% platform buying charge, for me it might almost be better to just to bail out of that space completely - or as AyG suggests, a solid 5% divi. for remaining as is, isn't a wholly bad idea. On reflection, I think I might just sit tight until something substantially more interesting presents itself.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Feb 13, 2018 11:17:33 GMT 7
If I was doing thru the UK, I'd probably swap HDIV for Royal London Sterling Extra Yield if I couldn't get in on IPE at decent terms. Cumulative Performance 1m 3m 6m 1yr 3yr 5yr 10yr D Invesco Perpetual Enhanced Income Limited -4.6% -5.9% -0.5% 6.4% 23.9% 67.5% 136.5% A Royal London Sterling Extra Yield Bond A Inc -1.0% 0.1% 2.9% 10.7% 27.0% 50.4% 107.1% C Henderson Diversified Income Trust Plc Ord 1P -5.7% -3.4% -1.5% 2.2% 14.0% 35.6% 73.3% It's 5 and 10 yr performance is roughly midway between IPE and HDIV Over all the shorter terms up to 3 years Royal London beats both. One point to consider is IPE can also hold equities, so that may have been a factor at some points and may not be strict like for like with the other two. Equities may have enhanced returns over 5 yr and 10yr At the moment it doesn't hold any. Over discrete 12m periods RL's max loss is similar to HDIV at around 2%, whereas IPE has a max loss of 10.7%. IPE does have the highest return of the 3 to go with it's max loss. RL though has a superior return to HDIV cumulatively, with a similar drawdown in bad years Discrete 12m periodsA Royal London Sterling Extra Yield Bond A Inc 10.7% 17.5% -2.4% 7.0% 10.7% C Invesco Perpetual Enhanced Income Limited 6.4% 30.3% -10.7% 12.2% 20.6% B Henderson Diversified Income Trust Plc Ord 1P 2.2% 14.1% -2.2% 8.6% 9.6% VolatilitiesRL has the lowest volatility of the three, with IPE highest Charges - OCF It's worth bearing in mind the performance figures above are for the old unit versions of RL, before the cheaper unbundled versions came on the scene. Looking at charges both HDIV and IPE look relatively expensive for fixed income funds these days at 1.1% and 1.15%. As they trade at slight premiums, and as charges are based on NAV not share price, when someone buys the effective annual charge over your initial purchase price is therefore a bit lower. But similarly you're also overpaying a little bit for the natural coupon yields. As yields outweigh charges the overall impact is against you, but small The old days where people could make blanket statements that ITs were cheaper need more thought these days. I suspect they may still be on average, but with the advent of discount brokers plus new pricing structures after the retail review a few years back it needs a closer look, and someone really needs to compare fund by fund. The new RL units have an OCF of 0.83%. What this doesn't take into account is discounts you can get thru your broker. Hargreaves Lansdown will discount that 0.83% by a very nice 0.43%, so the effective OCF is only 0.4% for me IPE also has a performance fee on top. Haven't looked at what that is. So on OCF: RL wins hands down at 0.4% vs 1.1% and 1.15%(+perf fee) One reason for this may be the small sizes of HDIV and IPE at 171m and 128m , where they can't get the same economies of scale. In the past I've often thought chargeson ITs to be less good value on bond funds compared to equity funds. Those sort of charges of 1% plus look more reasonable for equity funds, but high for bonds. Bid-offer Spread and Liquidity, Discounts etcNo bid-offer spread for RL, which is favourable to the >2% for the other two No issue with getting fair value for RL based on NAV No brokers fee to buy RL. In Singapore HDIV and IPE would cost me around 0.2%. In UK a flat fee structure makes it less of a big deal on large trades Both IPE and HDIV trade at premiums adding uncertainty. So all in all if holding in UK I'd almost definitely sell HDIV. The question would be whether to replace with RL or IPE. Both have their merits. As I don't expect returns going forward to be as high as recent years, the cost savings on RL may swing it, together with certainty and single pricing Unfortunately I hold it via Singapore So RL isn't an option, so I'm still stuck with the issues of liquidity and pricing for now
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chiangmai
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
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Post by chiangmai on Feb 13, 2018 14:05:13 GMT 7
I already hold RL SEY in both my portfolios and I'm very pleased that I do!
BTW and as an aside, I was talking with UOBAM today who told me that their CG-RMF (retirement fund) product is a cheaper product than is CG-LTF, it seems there are no exit charges on the former and all other factors appear equal, including volatility, although it's only about one year old.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Feb 13, 2018 17:19:41 GMT 7
Been trying to offload HDIV at 91p for the last couple of hours. Like watching paint dry. Spread was supposed to be 89.6 - 91.4 originally, so I put in 91. Since then seems to have narrowed to 89.8 - 91. That mainly just reflects recent trades, and it's still quoted as that. Volumes are abysmal. GBP 15k changed hands in 1 hour 40 mins on 6 trades www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/exchange-insight/trade-data.html?page=0&pageOffBook=0&fourWayKey=GB00BF03YC36GBGBXSSMM&formName=frmRow&upToRow=-1Time/Date Price Currency Volume Trade Value* Type MIC Code Trade Type Flags 09:40:16 13-Feb-2018 89.98 GBX 3,000 2,699.40 Off-book XLON 08:57:16 13-Feb-2018 90.82 GBX 5,525 5,017.80 Off-book XLON 08:39:13 13-Feb-2018 89.80 GBX 276 247.85 Automatic Trade XLON ALGO 08:19:37 13-Feb-2018 89.96 GBX 4,460 4,012.22 Off-book XLON 08:17:21 13-Feb-2018 91.00 GBX 541 492.31 Off-book XLON 08:01:14 13-Feb-2018 89.60 GBX 2,648 2,372.61 Automatic Trade XLON ALGO LSE doesn't disclose buys/sells but the assumption would be those above mid-price are buys and those below sells. Looking at values traded daily for the last month they seem to be about 15m pence / 150k pounds a day, and this is an above average. Looking at values traded monthly it's above average!!! 8 of the last 12 months have had monthly values of under GBP 2mn or under 100k a day (if using ball park 20 trading days a month for ease). Looking at the graph they probably averaged about about 100k pounds a day ball park over the last year, with 8 of those months more like 50k or under. Definitely not something someone wants to be holding large values of if they wanted to get shut of quickly in a downturn. Probably OK for a few thousand pounds (<10k) max. More than that if liquidity is important, and possibly getting out in a difficult market might happen, probably best to avoid, and choose something more liquid
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