|
Post by Fletchsmile on Jul 8, 2015 10:25:11 GMT 7
Interesting to look back on this after the events of the last few weeks. Think we can safely say commodities hadn't bottomed, and China continues to be a big risk with $3 trillion+ wiped off China's stock markets in the time frame we were discussing China as a key risk. Plus recent commodity falls, eg silver down 6% at one point yesterday. Maybe even further to fall, hard to call. Wouldn't bet against it. So don't have any appetite for adding to the funds. On the other hand I added some more to my holdings on BHP and RIO this morning - AUD versions. These tend to be big holdings in most funds of this sector. They're at multi year lows now and similar to GFC levels. Aim is to trade the dips and bounces for short term - which I've done frequently in past years on them - but if I get caught holding, I wouldn't be unhappy holding these two stocks at these valuations for long term. I wouldn't like to make blanket calls on the whole sector at this point - but these two I don't mind.
|
|
AyG
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
Posts: 5,871
Likes: 4,555
|
Post by AyG on Jul 28, 2015 9:58:22 GMT 7
Interesting to look back on this after the events of the last few weeks. Think we can safely say commodities hadn't bottomed, and China continues to be a big risk with $3 trillion+ wiped off China's stock markets in the time frame we were discussing China as a key risk. Plus recent commodity falls, eg silver down 6% at one point yesterday. Such prescience. In fact, commodities have since fallen further and harder than I'd though possible. BlackRock World Mining has fallen 17.4% in the last month, despite a narrowing of the discount to NAV. I guess some people are thinking it's time to buy into it again. My other investments in this area have fared equally badly: BlackRock Gold & General is down 16.5% over the same period, and JP Morgan Natural Resources is down 17.4%. I do think there has been some overreaction here. Yes, China's growth is slowing and commodity prices are falling. However, there's no direct connection between the Shanghai stock market and these investments. They certainly didn't go up on the stock market's spectacular (and extremely frothy) rise. Why should they have now come down for any reason other than emotion? Or am I missing something? Anyway, I'm now expecting a bounce back. I miss the good old days when investing seemed a lot simpler - and certainly a lot less nerve jangling.
|
|
|
Post by rgs2001uk on Jul 28, 2015 14:21:44 GMT 7
Saw something on the news this morning about miners being laid off in Sth Africa.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
Likes:
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2015 12:17:56 GMT 7
Wealth and value is an illusion.
|
|
|
Post by Fletchsmile on Jul 29, 2015 16:22:17 GMT 7
Wealth and value is an illusion. Some would also say that about life in general
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
Likes:
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2015 19:10:43 GMT 7
Wealth and value is an illusion. Some would also say that about life in general Depending on one's life, I reckon...
Too many aren't connected - so life will be nothing short of a dreamy escape.
|
|
|
Post by rgs2001uk on Jul 29, 2015 22:40:27 GMT 7
^^^^ Death is not the end.
|
|
|
Post by Fletchsmile on Jul 30, 2015 0:15:56 GMT 7
^^^^ Death is not the end. Several of my order can vouch for that
|
|
|
Post by Fletchsmile on Oct 14, 2015 13:21:43 GMT 7
Think we're pretty much at a stage where anyone who didn't get out might as well hang on for the ride till it picks up again, when it comes to resource funds... ============================================================= Commodity Super-Cycle Remains Intact, Westpac's Gardner SaysThe glut in commodities that dragged prices to their lowest since 1999 may take more than two years to clear as lower energy prices help spur a period of cheap freight, according to Westpac Banking Corp., which said the selloff is a downturn within a continued super-cycle. Lower energy prices are eroding costs and cutting shipping rates, enabling producers to export to China on aggressive terms, Paul Gardner, global head of structured commodity finance, said in an interview in Singapore. The excess supplies will take about 12 to 24 months to start clearing, paving the way for a rebound in prices, according to Gardner. China’s slowest expansion in decades is cutting raw material demand in a reversal from a decade ago, when booming growth across Asia fueled a synchronized surge across commodity prices that was dubbed the super-cycle. While Westpac sees that era continuing, with Gardner citing prospects for further growth and urbanization in Asia, many other banks including Citigroup Inc. called the end as surpluses emerged and prices retreated. “We’re very much in that camp of this is a super-cycle -- what we’re seeing right now is simply a price correction,” Gardner said on Tuesday. “The very fact that the petroleum cost has come down has lowered the cost base of a number of companies, it’s lowered the shipping costs.” Tumbling Prices The Bloomberg Commodity Index of 22 raw materials from oil to metals tumbled last month to the lowest since August 1999. Copper for delivery in three months retreated 20 percent this year, while iron ore with 62 percent content delivered to Qingdao lost 21 percent and Brent crude fell 15 percent. A private factory gauge in China on Wednesday pointed to further weakness. The preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index from Caixin Media and Markit Economics dropped to the lowest in 6 1/2 years, underscoring the challenges facing the nation’s factories. While iron ore may resume a retreat on rising supplies from Brazil’s Vale SA and the new Roy Hill project in Australia, mine disruptions may help rebalance the copper market, according to Gardner. Copper Outlook “Which commodity do I think is going to hold its price? I’d suggest to you that I think copper’s got strong fundamentals,” Gardner said. “It only takes a minor disruption in the supply chain for the copper price to increase.” Weak demand in China is hurting metals, prompting some producers to cut output or reduce spending on future projects. Glencore Plc plans to suspend copper operations in Zambia and at Katanga Mining Ltd. in the Democratic Republic of Congo for 18 months, the company said Sept. 7. “What you’re seeing at the moment is the usual cycle within a super-cycle,” said Gardner. “As that oversupply comes off, you will then see a rise in price again. So a cycle within a cycle is how I’d describe it.” www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-23/commodity-super-cycle-isn-t-dead-just-resting-westpac-says
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
Likes:
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 14, 2015 14:20:01 GMT 7
I'm buying - only in small amounts, but I am buying.
|
|
|
Post by Fletchsmile on Oct 14, 2015 14:55:03 GMT 7
I'm buying - only in small amounts, but I am buying. and when it comes to copper, scousers are nicking small amounts off church roofs
|
|
|
Post by rgs2001uk on Oct 14, 2015 21:27:15 GMT 7
I'm buying - only in small amounts, but I am buying. and when it comes to copper, scousers are nicking small amounts off church roofs Up my way it was always the lead they were nicking off the roofs.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
Likes:
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 14, 2015 21:50:57 GMT 7
Don't need to climb roofs, there's plenty of monuments and statues to blag and melt down.
Talking of which? I bid £11,000 on a Churchill maquette which was being sold trough a local auction house recently Effin thing sold for £30 K plus.
It was one of those Heritage reader offer thingies when it was first produced. £590 in 1975 I think. Big money then, but what an investment that turned out to be for some. I've got a few low end Moorcroft and the like I need to get rid of. I was offered a Chelsea greyhound but Bonham's declared it fake. There's many a shark in the antique waters.
|
|
|
Post by Fletchsmile on Feb 11, 2016 14:23:35 GMT 7
Resources stocks are still on my radar looking for signs of a pickup. Knowing gold and gold miners have had a decent run recently, I thought it worth a bit of review.
Some comments
- Think we called it right overall that there could be further falls to go, and there was. - So I'm happy that I hadn't added to these "specialist" funds - First State Global Resources has continued to perform better than JPM Natural resources. So am happy to have largely ditched JPM - Really don't like how the charting tools automatically compare to "specialist funds". Specialist covers far more than resources and has some totally unrelated businesses which bear no comparison whatsoever
- Blackrock Gold and General has started to diverge from the other more general/ wider based resource funds, because of its gold focus. It's up around 23% in the last 3 months compared to double digit losses for the others
Gold and gold producers are starting to look interesting. Whether the recent bounce will be maintained is another question. I think the pick up for wider based commodity funds mentioned will take longer.
So:
Blackrock Gold and General - starting to look interesting. Probably the only one of the 4 of the funds mentioned I'd consider adding to.
First State Global Resources - still not a fan of specialist resource funds, and would prefer wider based funds. Not looking to add, but holding as the worst is probably over. If someone really wants a resource fund, First State looks better than JPM
JPM - Glad I've largely exited it. See no reason to add to it or even hold it. Consider switching to First State if someone really wants a resources fund.
Blackrock Mining IT - never held it. Looks to have had a nightmare in the last few years. Evy Hambro is a reknown name tho' as are Blackrock 20% drop in 3 months has been worsened by being an investment trust and the dicount/ spread between price and NAV widening while its out of favour. ITs can be nice when the discount between price and NAV narrows in good markets, but a double whammy of falling NAV and widening discount in bad markets. It's something I might keep an eye on though as at some point the cycle will turn. Longer term I don't want specialist resource funds, with the possible exception of gold funds/gold producers.
Over a Short to medium term at the right point in time (not yet) to take a view it could be interesting. The IT currently trades on a 20% discount to NAV after falling out of favour, which would be an added bonus if/when that starts to narrow
Edit: Can't seem to attach the chart, but
Cumulative performance 1m 3m 6m 1y 3y 5y 10y Since Launch. 3m numbers in blue and 6m in orange since last time
A BlackRock Gold & General A Acc +13.0% +23.3% +25.1% -11.6% -46.9% -58.0% -10.4% 997.5%
B JPM Natural Resources A Acc 0.4% -12.1% -17.9% -36.7% -60.0% -73.5% -44.4% 2098.4%
C First State Global Resources A GBP Acc 2.3% -9.5% -15.6% -33.6% -49.3% -63.2% -21.3% 58.5%
D BlackRock World Mining IT 0.4% -20.3% -28.6% -41.6% -66.5% -72.9% -44.1% 186.7%
|
|
AyG
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
Posts: 5,871
Likes: 4,555
|
Post by AyG on Feb 11, 2016 17:30:54 GMT 7
I still hold it. The yield now is 13.5% which is nothing to grumble about, though I'm not sure how sustainable that is since Rio Tinto has recently announced it's dropping its policy of growing its dividend for this year, and it's a 12.4% holding for the trust.
|
|