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Post by Fletchsmile on Jun 19, 2015 22:52:03 GMT 7
Investment trusts: Personal Assets, Ruffer Fund: Ecclesiastical Higher Income All are managed defensively. For example, Ruffer's maximum drawdown has been 7.36%. Personal Assets is more extremely defensive than the other two, so hasn't grown as fast. Just out of interest what were their returns in 2008? Always open to new ideas on funds. Would be interested to know as I could only find history for last 5 years. Seems to have a solid performance history, although I'd be a bit concerned it's been 4 quartile for the last 2 years - assuming I've got the right version, which has put them only 2nd quartile over 5 cumulative years. Have I got the right fund? It actually says it is a mixed fund 40 % to 85% shares, with the rest in fixed income. Currently 26% fixed income. Would also be a bit wary of that fixed income exposure as rates rise, and bond prices naturally fall if so factsheets.financialexpress.net/ecc/A196.pdfAll I could find was this graph Attachment DeletedEnlarging the graph looked like it dropped from just over 290 to just under 210 which is probably around 28% - 32%, but that's just a guess. Would be interested in how it did, as 2008 is a year I use a lot to back test. Investment trusts can have a lot of advantages in particular circumstances. One thing that concerns me on the downside though, is that in a crash or crisis you often end up with a double whammy on investment trusts due to their value depending on supply and demand for the shares in addition to the changing value of the net assets. What I've often seen is the net asset value falls because of the crash, and then you get hit again because the discount between NAV and share price often widens. eg we see now how many are trading at premiums on the thread Cheeryble started. Should a crash occur that premium would likely switch to a discount plus the underlying assets go down = double hit.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Jun 19, 2015 23:03:41 GMT 7
^^^, I may have a simplistic approach, I dont invest in anything trading at a premium.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jun 19, 2015 23:09:28 GMT 7
For 2008:
FTSE tanked -31% that year FTSE250 tanked -40% that year
Invesco Perpetual income fund for 2008. It was down -19.9% that year, so significantly better than the UK indices in that downturn. That was the worst year I could find for it since 1999.
For Woodford what often gets overlooked is he can be position himself cautiously and defensively when he thinks time is right. One of his trademarks is suffering less than peers in downturns.
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Jun 20, 2015 11:20:05 GMT 7
Well, here's my idea of a pleasant investment.
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Jun 20, 2015 12:05:55 GMT 7
Just out of interest what were their returns in 2008? Always open to new ideas on funds. Would be interested to know as I could only find history for last 5 years. Seems to have a solid performance history, although I'd be a bit concerned it's been 4 quartile for the last 2 years - assuming I've got the right version, which has put them only 2nd quartile over 5 cumulative years. Here's the performance of Ecclesiastical Higher Income A (label A) in 2008. For comparison I've included Woodford's Invesco Perpetual Income (label B) and the FTSE 100 (label C). Attachment DeletedAs you can see, the Ecclesiastical fund fell less than Woodford's. The 4th quartile doesn't bother me. It simply reflects the defensive nature of the fund. It's going to underperform in rising markets, but should help preserve your capital in falling ones. In 2014 it made 5.7%, and in 2013 10.1%. I'm not greedy. That's enough for me. The 10 year annualised performance is 8.6%, which to me seems reasonable.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jun 20, 2015 12:33:48 GMT 7
Have you got a link to the actual fund? You mentioned it's an investment trust but I could only find the unit trust version?
BTW What tool did you use for your historical chart too?
Cheers for the graph. It makes sense and is more like what I'd expect. Ecclesiastical Higher Income is a mixed fund, which contains 40% to 85% equities, the rest 60%-15% is in fixed income/bonds. By nature fixed income/bonds as an asset class are lower risk lower return than equity (although obviously depends on individual equities and bonds and that's an average generalisation).
So as a mixed fund I'd expect it to be less volatile than a 100% equity fund as it's not really alike for like comparison. I guess the question it raises for rgs is does he want to introduce some fixed income/bonds into that 20k. As yes that should reduce volatility, but it will also reduce returns compared to a 100% stock market investment he started out looking at.
The other question I have around anything containing fixed income/ bonds is how they'll fare when interest rates rise and bond prices will fall.
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Jun 20, 2015 12:44:25 GMT 7
Investment trusts can have a lot of advantages in particular circumstances. One thing that concerns me on the downside though, is that in a crash or crisis you often end up with a double whammy on investment trusts due to their value depending on supply and demand for the shares in addition to the changing value of the net assets. What I've often seen is the net asset value falls because of the crash, and then you get hit again because the discount between NAV and share price often widens. eg we see now how many are trading at premiums on the thread Cheeryble started. Should a crash occur that premium would likely switch to a discount plus the underlying assets go down = double hit. Just like the passive v. active debate, the open ended v. closed decision isn't clear cut. (Actually, sometimes it is. I'm not going to pay a 23.4% premium to NAV to access Lindsell/Train's expertise via their investment trust. If I wanted to put my money with them I'd definitely go the open ended route. The premium is just madness. Not sure I'd pay a 10.2% premium for Woodford's investment trust, either.) Anyway, a few points: (1) Many investment trusts have now started to manage their discount/premium by buying up shares, or issuing new ones. This takes away the problem of widening discounts. (2) If a trust is bought at a discount you're effectively getting more dividend income that if you bought an equivalent unit trust, which is nice. (3) It does appear that more investment trusts are trading at a premium than in the past. Not sure if this is a result of the Retail Distribution Review or not. Some have obviously had their prices driven up by the search for yield (particularly in the infrastructure and property sectors). These I'd be wary of: I don't think the premium is sustainable. (4) Investment trusts are pretty much always sellable. You don't get the problems such as there were with property funds a few years back where investors couldn't exit. Similar problems have afflicted those who invested in the Arch Cru range who have waited years to get a fraction of their money back. (5) By not having to deal with redemptions, investment trusts can hold less cash than funds, cash being a drag on performance. They also don't have the forced sales which are incurred when there's a run on a fund, for example, if the fund manager leaves. Theoretically (and often in practice) an investment trust will perform better than an equivalent unit trust. (6) I'm not so bothered by discounts widening. If a discount goes from 5% to 10% and I'm holding the investment trust for 10 years, then I'm only losing 0.5% a year. And some investment trusts I've held for more than 30 years. Of course, it's more of an issue if you're likely to be a forced seller at some point in the future. (7) I don't particularly like the bid/offer spread on investment trusts, and really don't like paying the 0.5% tax on purchases. (8) Many investment trusts don't communicate particularly well with their holders. Fund managers tend to do a better job with monthly fact sheets and the like. (9) Investment trusts pay their managers less than funds. Does that mean that funds will attract better quality managers than trusts? (10) Investment trusts have to reveal how much the managers and directors have invested in the trust. There's no similar mandatory disclosure for funds. I feel more comfortable when the manager has skin in the game.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jun 20, 2015 12:59:12 GMT 7
Just had one of those aha moments, as I thought the Ecclesiastical fund seemed familiar. In my mum's portfolio, as I manage that more conservatively than my own, I hold Invesco Perpetual Distribution Fund. This is a mixed fund 20% - 60% equities, so a lower equity weighting than Ecc but comparable to an extent. Rationale for holding is very much same as AyG mentions, that as a mixed adding bonds will make it more defensive than a pure equity fund - though I hold some of those for her too. This fund is on my watchlist though as something I'm considering shifting. The reason being is that Invesco Distribution fund, although has a decent history, used to have the equity part managed by Neil Woodford (funny how things go in circles). When he left a year ago I put it on my watchlist to monitor. The guy who took over his equity element is somewhat unknown to me, and not the same guy who took over his income fund. I looked around for alternatives and two that I looked at about a year back were: AXA framlington Managed Balanced fund and Ecclesiastical Higher Income - both 40% - 85% equities compared to Invesco Perpetual 20% - 65% equity, but comparable. I held onto the Invesco Distribution fund, as it has two very good quality fixed income managers Paul Causer and Paul Reid, who are still there. So it was only the equity part left. Hence didn't want to sell immediately because of the fixed income quality, but was monitoring because of the loss of the equity manager. Seems an opportune time to revisit That's also one of the reasons I find it useful to share thoughts on these forums, and for people to throw up ideas, challenges, put forward alternative viewpoints = generates idea
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jun 20, 2015 13:40:22 GMT 7
For mixed funds rather than 100% equity, as mentioned I hold Invesco Perpetual Distribution for my mum, but had also looked at AXA Managed Balanced and Ecclesiastical Higher Income as realistic alternatives to change to for her, about a year back when Woodford left, and just now done a quick update. (I'd also dismissed a lot of others, and these were 3 I narrowed it down to). All 3 might be worth a look by rgs or anyone else if considering mixed funds: Below is the performance graphs: Attachment DeletedYellow = mixed fund 20% to 65% sector - would be expected lowest returns, with lowest equity weightings Blue = mixed 40% to 85% sector - would be expected to be higher than yellow given the higher equity weightings Green = Invesco Perpetual Distribution Orange = Ecclesiastical Brown = AXA Some key take-aways: - It's clear all 3 have continued to beat their peers in the mixed fund sector, so all 3 worth considering - For a lower proportion of equities, however, Invesco Perpetual was holding its own until a year or so back. With a higher proportion equity funds I would expect to generally have a higher return on AXA and Ecclesiatical in equity bull markets. - Invesco Perpetual Distribution was beating its sector by more relatively (vs yellow) than Ecclesiastical and AXA (vs blue) over the last 5 years. So I liked the Invesco fund and was a clear cut addition to a conservative portfolio, until a year back when Woodford left, and I was less sure But - In the last year, Invesco underperformed its sector, as well as dipped vs the other 2 funds. Of 4 previous discrete calendar years it had outperformed. I really don't know exactly why that is, and it's too short to judge. It's possible it coincides with Woodford's departure, and definitely validates my decision to put on watch and monitor. But could also be down to the higher weighting in bonds it has to hold. Below are the stats for discrete and cumulative years for these 3 funds plus their 2 sectors Discrete calendar year performance Investment 19/06/10 - 19/06/11 19/06/11 - 19/06/12 19/06/12 - 19/06/13 19/06/13 - 19/06/14 19/06/14 -19/06/15 UT Mixed Investment 40%-85% Shares 8.67% -1.94% 15.61% 6.67% 6.89% Ecclesiastical Higher Income B 12.84% 1.2% 17.08% 10.85% 4.03% AXA Framlington Managed Balanced R Acc 12.99% 0.59% 18.54% 8.23% 6.3% UT Mixed Investment 20%-60% Shares 7.1% -0.09% 11.69% 5.72% 5.08% Invesco Perpetual Distribution Acc 10.26% 2.52% 20.37% 8.12 2% Cumulative performance Investment 3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years 5 years UT Mixed Investment 40%-85% Shares -1.77% 4.98% 6.89% 31.82% 40.47% Ecclesiastical Higher Income B -0.89% 4.22% 4.03% 35.01% 54.16% AXA Framlington Managed Balanced R Acc -1.54% 4.73% 6.3% 36.38% 55%UT Mixed Investment 20%-60% Shares -1.83% 3.34% 5.08% 24.07% 32.76% Invesco Perpetual Distribution Acc -1.99% 2.32% 2% 32.75% 50.07% So summing up: All 3 funds are worth a look: - All 3 have generated positive returns in each of 5 discrete calendar years to 19 June, whereas their sectors were slightly negative in 2011 and only 4 out of 5 for the sector - All 3 outperformed their benchmark in 4 out of 5 calendar years exept the last one - All 3 have generated around 50 - 55% % over 5 cumulative years, compared to 40% for the 40-85% sector and 33% for the 20 - 60% sector; Not a lot to choose between them - Invesco did lose Woodford, which is a concern going forward, and it's going forward/ the future that counts; but then again other 2 fixed income managers are good and add stability - Invesco did dip in the last year vs the other 2, but then again they both under performed their sectors too - Relative to its sector the Invesco fund has outperformed more than the other 2 historically, but then again the higher bond weighting if rates rise is a concern for the future I really don't find it clear cut between the 3. However, I would rather hold any of the 3 than your average fund in the UK mixed fund sector. Cheers Fletch
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jun 20, 2015 16:25:49 GMT 7
The OP is trying to be proactive and think outside the box. Yes looking for a single investment to hold as part of a portfolio, yes modest performane is acceptable, looking for wealth protection rather than generation. Already hold the usual suspects, Alliance, Monks Witan and Scottish Mortagage. Already hold a spread of blue chip companies. ... Witan has been a great investment over the years in more ways than one. It has an interesting history too in how it developed. I actually audited it once in the late 1980's/90's when it was part of Henderson Admin / Group. It was one of the more interesting fund audits I did - looking how to structure global investments was also interesting back in those days, compared to these days where we take it for granted. Think they started putting their investment management fees up in the 2000's if I recall, and became a bit more expensive. Still a reasonable core holding though.
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The Arrow
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Post by The Arrow on Jun 20, 2015 17:18:48 GMT 7
For mixed funds rather than 100% equity, as mentioned I hold Invesco Perpetual Distribution for my mum, but had also looked at AXA Managed Balanced and Ecclesiastical Higher Income as realistic alternatives to change to for her, about a year back when Woodford left, and just now done a quick update. (I'd also dismissed a lot of others, and these were 3 I narrowed it down to). All 3 might be worth a look by rgs or anyone else if considering mixed funds: Below is the performance graphs: View AttachmentYellow = mixed fund 20% to 65% sector - would be expected lowest returns, with lowest equity weightings Blue = mixed 40% to 85% sector - would be expected to be higher than yellow given the higher equity weightings Green = Invesco Perpetual Distribution Orange = Ecclesiastical Brown = AXA Some key take-aways: - It's clear all 3 have continued to beat their peers in the mixed fund sector, so all 3 worth considering - For a lower proportion of equities, however, Invesco Perpetual was holding its own until a year or so back. With a higher proportion equity funds I would expect to generally have a higher return on AXA and Ecclesiatical in equity bull markets. - Invesco Perpetual Distribution was beating its sector by more relatively (vs yellow) than Ecclesiastical and AXA (vs blue) over the last 5 years. So I liked the Invesco fund and was a clear cut addition to a conservative portfolio, until a year back when Woodford left, and I was less sure But - In the last year, Invesco underperformed its sector, as well as dipped vs the other 2 funds. Of 4 previous discrete calendar years it had outperformed. I really don't know exactly why that is, and it's too short to judge. It's possible it coincides with Woodford's departure, and definitely validates my decision to put on watch and monitor. But could also be down to the higher weighting in bonds it has to hold. Below are the stats for discrete and cumulative years for these 3 funds plus their 2 sectors Discrete calendar year performance Investment 19/06/10 - 19/06/11 19/06/11 - 19/06/12 19/06/12 - 19/06/13 19/06/13 - 19/06/14 19/06/14 -19/06/15 UT Mixed Investment 40%-85% Shares 8.67% -1.94% 15.61% 6.67% 6.89% Ecclesiastical Higher Income B 12.84% 1.2% 17.08% 10.85% 4.03% AXA Framlington Managed Balanced R Acc 12.99% 0.59% 18.54% 8.23% 6.3% UT Mixed Investment 20%-60% Shares 7.1% -0.09% 11.69% 5.72% 5.08% Invesco Perpetual Distribution Acc 10.26% 2.52% 20.37% 8.12 2% Cumulative performance Investment 3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years 5 years UT Mixed Investment 40%-85% Shares -1.77% 4.98% 6.89% 31.82% 40.47% Ecclesiastical Higher Income B -0.89% 4.22% 4.03% 35.01% 54.16% AXA Framlington Managed Balanced R Acc -1.54% 4.73% 6.3% 36.38% 55%UT Mixed Investment 20%-60% Shares -1.83% 3.34% 5.08% 24.07% 32.76% Invesco Perpetual Distribution Acc -1.99% 2.32% 2% 32.75% 50.07% So summing up: All 3 funds are worth a look: - All 3 have generated positive returns in each of 5 discrete calendar years to 19 June, whereas their sectors were slightly negative in 2011 and only 4 out of 5 for the sector - All 3 outperformed their benchmark in 4 out of 5 calendar years exept the last one - All 3 have generated around 50 - 55% % over 5 cumulative years, compared to 40% for the 40-85% sector and 33% for the 20 - 60% sector; Not a lot to choose between them - Invesco did lose Woodford, which is a concern going forward, and it's going forward/ the future that counts; but then again other 2 fixed income managers are good and add stability - Invesco did dip in the last year vs the other 2, but then again they both under performed their sectors too - Relative to its sector the Invesco fund has outperformed more than the other 2 historically, but then again the higher bond weighting if rates rise is a concern for the future I really don't find it clear cut between the 3. However, I would rather hold any of the 3 than your average fund in the UK mixed fund sector. Cheers Fletch <duck> me sideways, look at that lot. Park it in a Mia Noi. Much a lotta more fun than Fletch's charts.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jun 20, 2015 17:23:32 GMT 7
<duck> me sideways, look at that lot. Park it in a Mia Noi. Much a lotta more fun than Fletch's charts. Who said it was either or? Only one mia noi?
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The Arrow
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Post by The Arrow on Jun 20, 2015 17:42:48 GMT 7
<duck> me sideways, look at that lot. Park it in a Mia Noi. Much a lotta more fun than Fletch's charts. Who said it was either or? Only one mia noi? Prices have risen, the quid ain't what it was, it is either or.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Jun 21, 2015 21:16:11 GMT 7
Who said it was either or? Only one mia noi? Prices have risen, the quid ain't what it was, it is either or. The beauty of being back in Jolly Ole Blighty, the quid will always be a quid. One of the drawbacks of being a pikey nomad, we never how much the quid will be worth tomorrow.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jun 24, 2015 9:42:40 GMT 7
Prices have risen, the quid ain't what it was, it is either or. The beauty of being back in Jolly Ole Blighty, the quid will always be a quid. One of the drawbacks of being a pikey nomad, we never how much the quid will be worth tomorrow. Living in Thailand, that's where THB investments come in. THB will always be THB Keep GBP for visits to UK and in case you need to go back
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