rubl
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The wondering type
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Post by rubl on Jul 25, 2020 21:06:41 GMT 7
if rgs hadn't inserted that "worthless dollars, reminds me of Germany and the EU." I would not have said anything. Now I felt the need to indicate that when investing you should try to be objective. Of course, if you think that I should push for green investment and against 'dirty' industry and inhuman fishing fleets, etc., etc. instead, in Thailand context as well ... ... No worries my dutchy friend, broad shoulders and and a thick skin, water off a ducks back (no pun intended) etc etc. Worthless $$$, , The Wizad of Oz anyone, or how about Bretton Woods? en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_systemHow about some of this, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exorbitant_privilegeGermany, , en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic?fbclid=IwAR1yTBnZ30BFPfdNl-Ypu6kkBcTSiSMVuo9qd4T_w_PhRA_okBmk8VcbNsQEU, kop for some of this, www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53429064The BBC article is from 17 July 2020 "EU's 'moment of truth' as leaders seek Covid funding deal " On 21-07-2020 "EU leaders reach deal on €750 billion coronavirus rescue fund after marathon summit Tense European Council meeting exposed divides between the 27 leaders and was one of the longest EU summits in history" www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/21/eu-leaders-deal-750-billion-coronavirus-rescue-fund-marathon/The hyper inflation in the Weimar Republic between 1932 - 1923? Such things happen. Sometimes to a slightly lesser degree, like in Black September 1992. Anyway as CM reminded us, this topic seems to be on foreigners leaving Thailand (or not) and the financial impact. For those foreigners used to Euros, the exchange rate has improved by about 8% since begin of the year. The effect depends on your source of income. Only state pension plus a bit isn't much. Of course once you're established you might not really need much every month. Health Insurance could be the one big expense item especially for the retired people. As I wrote before, those who struggle are probably not missed by the country although by their loved ones here.
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rubl
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The wondering type
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Post by rubl on Jul 25, 2020 21:12:00 GMT 7
Moving right along......the next question we will try and answer is.....by how many percentage points does the average IQ of the nation increase when Metisdead leaves Thailand and does this account for the periodic spikes in GDP. A minor, really minor aspect you might have overlooked, my dear chap. Unlike the scores for the Toad's Quiz the IQ doesn't turned negative, just approaching zero. So a single duck doesn't effect the average IQ of the Nation what with there being 70 million Thai. Mind you, had you asked about the effect on 'well being' and 'well feeling' ...
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Jul 27, 2020 11:08:36 GMT 7
Fed meeting, BOT economic report key factors in baht's movement this week
Interesting short passage concerning the Thai Baht and American ''interest in the said currency, from a news feed dated 27th July.
Kasikornbank expects the baht to move between 31.50 to 31.90 during July 27 to 31.
The bank advised investors to monitor the outcome of the Fed meeting on July 28-29.
Other factors affecting the currency include the domestic political situation, the Bank of Thailand (BOT)'s economic report, the Covid-19 situation, and the US-China conflict.US economic numbers to be announced this week includes the customer confidence index, inflation rate estimated from the Core PCE Price Index of June, housing price index for May, initial jobless claims, and the gross domestic product of the previous quarter.
On Friday (July 24), the baht was at Bt31.72, after reaching the lowest in the past month and a half at Bt31.86.
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rubl
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Post by rubl on Jul 27, 2020 12:55:12 GMT 7
The American figures may be effected by the run up to the elections of a new President.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 27, 2020 14:55:44 GMT 7
For me at least the only number that is meaningful on the US side of the currency equation is the US Dollar Index which is plumbing new lows. Why the index is falling is not so much about the value of some of the underlying currencies, some of which are actually increasing in value, but mostly it's the US debt and lack of early recovery picture. www.investing.com/currencies/us-dollar-index
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 27, 2020 14:58:17 GMT 7
Fed meeting, BOT economic report key factors in baht's movement this week
Interesting short passage concerning the Thai Baht and American ''interest in the said currency, from a news feed dated 27th July. Kasikornbank expects the baht to move between 31.50 to 31.90 during July 27 to 31. The bank advised investors to monitor the outcome of the Fed meeting on July 28-29. Other factors affecting the currency include the domestic political situation, the Bank of Thailand (BOT)'s economic report, the Covid-19 situation, and the US-China conflict.US economic numbers to be announced this week includes the customer confidence index, inflation rate estimated from the Core PCE Price Index of June, housing price index for May, initial jobless claims, and the gross domestic product of the previous quarter. On Friday (July 24), the baht was at Bt31.72, after reaching the lowest in the past month and a half at Bt31.86. The KK press releases on THB are so banal at times, they almost never provide any useful insight but instead always list all the things that could be responsible for any movement.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 27, 2020 16:24:43 GMT 7
Somebody asked earlier about the interest burden and serviceability of Thailand's debt and I replied that it was very low. A useful article in today's BP on the same subject: www.bangkokpost.com/business/1958083/public-debt-not-scary-yet-pdmo-saysInterestingly the article quotes a source who says that only about one third of the 1 trillion Baht that was borrowed has been issued thus far.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Jul 27, 2020 20:56:31 GMT 7
Fed meeting, BOT economic report key factors in baht's movement this week
Interesting short passage concerning the Thai Baht and American ''interest in the said currency, from a news feed dated 27th July. Kasikornbank expects the baht to move between 31.50 to 31.90 during July 27 to 31. The bank advised investors to monitor the outcome of the Fed meeting on July 28-29. Other factors affecting the currency include the domestic political situation, the Bank of Thailand (BOT)'s economic report, the Covid-19 situation, and the US-China conflict.US economic numbers to be announced this week includes the customer confidence index, inflation rate estimated from the Core PCE Price Index of June, housing price index for May, initial jobless claims, and the gross domestic product of the previous quarter. On Friday (July 24), the baht was at Bt31.72, after reaching the lowest in the past month and a half at Bt31.86. The KK press releases on THB are so banal at times, they almost never provide any useful insight but instead always list all the things that could be responsible for any movement. How about getting back to us all in lets say 6 months,as cash runs out to keep business afloat and NPLs kick in.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Jul 27, 2020 21:04:04 GMT 7
For me at least the only number that is meaningful on the US side of the currency equation is the US Dollar Index which is plumbing new lows. Why the index is falling is not so much about the value of some of the underlying currencies, some of which are actually increasing in value, but mostly it's the US debt and lack of early recovery picture. www.investing.com/currencies/us-dollar-indexNot mentioned, American elections. Cash investor waiting to invest, meanwhile, I will take a rain check and see which way the wind blows. As already mentioned elsewhere, I will be doing no more investing/trading this year, if anything it will be at least 6 months before I trade, waiting to see how the markets react to American elections. We were warned about this years ago, the Yanks refer to it as kicking the can down the road. 30years after the wall coming down, where is the peace dividend we were promised? A Balkans war, two Gulf wars, Afghnisatan war, Libya and Syria, FFS you couldnt make this shit up.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 28, 2020 1:50:54 GMT 7
The KK press releases on THB are so banal at times, they almost never provide any useful insight but instead always list all the things that could be responsible for any movement. How about getting back to us all in lets say 6 months,as cash runs out to keep business afloat and NPLs kick in. The last NPL report from BOT shows 1Q20 but there's been nothing since which is odd. www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=829&language=ENGNPL's at end 1Q20 were not too bad but special mention loans were looking slightly stellar, these are loans that might be expected to become NPL's in the next report. But bank balance sheets are very healthy and bank reserve level requirements are higher than required, plus dividends and buy backs have been postponed, there shouldn't be anything here to influence baht strength......yet!
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 28, 2020 5:36:23 GMT 7
I don't want to go down the US economy path but it's worth a couple of comments in the context of what will be the impact on Thailand's economy:
USD is falling because of a surging trade deficit and the increase in the price of oil, those things result in more debt and Treasuries that are going to be difficult to sell at such low interest rates. The incumbent President was said to be pro-economy but in fact much of what he achieved was inherited, plus, the rival candidate already has corresponding tax cuts lined up and ready to go. As with the economies of many other countries, what happens to the US (and USD) is dependent on what happens with progress against the virus. I THINK USD will continue to weaken until Trump is replaced, a new President should see US/China relations and trade in a better light and should mean a better coordinated approach to the virus and world affairs in general - a huge challenge that lays ahead is how to administer a vaccine to the worlds populations and the US will have to lead on that and have a president that it capable of leading. Bottom line, weak USD until November(ish) thereafter should strengthen as long as there's a change in leadership.
Impacts on the Thai economy will likely mean that Thai exports continue to struggle unless ways are found to weaken THB more rapidly but the problem should go away after November, God willing! If that happens then Thai trade will benefit from improved US/China relations and the associated trade. I assume the surging gold price is virus vaccine dependent.
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Jul 28, 2020 11:13:41 GMT 7
Perhaps another factor that may well have a negative effect on the Thai economy is that bubbling cauldron of discontent and the resulting general angst concerning the governance of Thailand.. Albeit slowly that cauldron is bubbling up to boiling point and it will unless the heat is eased boil over.
Note, many foreign investors are slowly dropping or losing interest in Thailand, warning bells are ringing yet little or no attention is being paid to those warning bells.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 28, 2020 11:45:17 GMT 7
Yes, there's no question that Thailand has lost FDI to other countries, especially to Vietnam and that's a big concern. FDI into Vietnam in the first four months of the year was almost as much as the whole of last year, about USD 13 bill. Thailand inbound FDI flows decreased to USD 4 billion in 2019, down from USD 10 billion in 2018. There's no doubt that Thailand has suffered more than most as a result of the US/China trade war, the following report from Krungsri Research visualises just how much at the detailed level with an excellent heat map of expansion/contraction by segment - pages 5-11. www.krungsri.com/bank/getmedia/0b398285-4b28-4ece-92ea-56f5e2988857/MB_Bulletin_191224_EN.aspx
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Post by rgs2001uk on Jul 28, 2020 21:19:03 GMT 7
I don't want to go down the US economy path but it's worth a couple of comments in the context of what will be the impact on Thailand's economy: USD is falling because of a surging trade deficit and the increase in the price of oil, those things result in more debt and Treasuries that are going to be difficult to sell at such low interest rates. The incumbent President was said to be pro-economy but in fact much of what he achieved was inherited, plus, the rival candidate already has corresponding tax cuts lined up and ready to go. As with the economies of many other countries, what happens to the US (and USD) is dependent on what happens with progress against the virus. I THINK USD will continue to weaken until Trump is replaced, a new President should see US/China relations and trade in a better light and should mean a better coordinated approach to the virus and world affairs in general - a huge challenge that lays ahead is how to administer a vaccine to the worlds populations and the US will have to lead on that and have a president that it capable of leading. Bottom line, weak USD until November(ish) thereafter should strengthen as long as there's a change in leadership. Impacts on the Thai economy will likely mean that Thai exports continue to struggle unless ways are found to weaken THB more rapidly but the problem should go away after November, God willing! If that happens then Thai trade will benefit from improved US/China relations and the associated trade. I assume the surging gold price is virus vaccine dependent. Not mentioned, Uncle Sam can be a right belligerent vindictive bastid, which side are you on and all that, Iran and Cuba spring to mind, governments come and go, but Uncle Sam will always be there. As spoken about before, when America sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold. The above isnt an anti American rant, its just the way it is, too be honest, Thailand should thank its lucky stars The Don hasnt yet latched on to import tarrifs in Thailand for American goods.
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Jul 29, 2020 6:56:32 GMT 7
Thailand should thank its lucky stars The Don hasnt yet latched on to import tarrifs in Thailand for American goods. I rather suspect that the mentally retarded orange buffoon doesn't even know the difference between Thailand and Taiwan, given that he believes Finland is part of Russia and that Venezuela is “really part of the United States”. Geography is not his strong point. (But then, what is?)
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