chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 30, 2020 8:56:19 GMT 7
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Jul 30, 2020 9:32:27 GMT 7
What matters is net gold shipments. Thailand doesn't produce any gold*, so all the gold that's exported was first imported. Thailand only adds a little value by turning it into jewellery and ornaments. Even with that, and if I've got my sums right, a gold export value of USD 7.5 billion is only 1.4% of Thailand's GDP. (Thailand GDP is currently USD 530 billion according to Wikipedia.) In other words, pretty negligible. *Thailand Gold Production. Thailand's Gold Production was reported at 0.000 kg in Dec 2017. www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/gold-production#:~:text=Thailand's%20Gold%20Production%20was%20reported,to%202017%2C%20with%2017%20observations.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 30, 2020 9:47:05 GMT 7
What matters is net gold shipments. Thailand doesn't produce any gold*, so all the gold that's exported was first imported. Thailand only adds a little value by turning it into jewellery and ornaments. Even with that, and if I've got my sums right, a gold export value of USD 7.5 billion is only 1.4% of Thailand's GDP. (Thailand GDP is currently USD 530 billion according to Wikipedia.) In other words, pretty negligible. *Thailand Gold Production. Thailand's Gold Production was reported at 0.000 kg in Dec 2017. www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/gold-production#:~:text=Thailand's%20Gold%20Production%20was%20reported,to%202017%2C%20with%2017%20observations. I think it's actually about 3% of GDP: Exports are 64% of GDP (US 540 bill), of which tourism is 20%, ergo, shipments of goods = 44% of GDP or USD 238 bill. so gold =3% And if the gold is imported, where does it come from and how is it paid for and in which currency, that would seem to be key in understanding this.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 30, 2020 16:23:04 GMT 7
From Bloomberg: Thailand is the worlds ninth largest gold exporter, the amount of gold trading is about USD 50 bill. per year or 5 to 7% of the country's foreign exchange market. And from the link below: "Currency Import and Export Restrictions An importer may purchase or withdraw foreign currencies from their own foreign currency accounts for import payments upon submission of supporting documents. Letters of credit may also be issued without authorisation. By law, export proceeds of US$50,000 and above shall be repatriated immediately after payment is received and within 360 days from the export date. The proceeds must be sold to or deposited in a foreign currency account with an authorised bank in Thailand within 360 days of receipt". www.sbma.org.sg/asean-bullion-market/thailand/I read the above as BOT not being in the loop to purchase gold but requiring the sales proceeds to be deposited within one year etc. And since the largest part of thew Thai market is the domestic market, the final sale will be in THB hence USD is sold and THB is purchased.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Jul 30, 2020 20:31:08 GMT 7
Excellent reporting there CM, a side of Thailand the two week millionaires never see or know about.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Jul 30, 2020 21:33:29 GMT 7
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 31, 2020 3:34:48 GMT 7
It does look as though gold trading and the need to change back and forth between USD and THB is an issue in a market worth US 50 billion per year. But it also appears dealers are on board with changing the system, THB will be volatile during the second half...they say, transition volatility perhaps. "The central bank recently asked foreign exchange dealers if they could quote gold prices in dollars instead of baht for outbound and inbound shipments, as well as for the sale of imported gold to other local dealers, said a source familiar with the issue. With gold prices quoted in dollars, import and export transactions made by precious metal dealers would no longer have any effect on the baht, with no need to convert from dollars to baht and vice versa.". www.bangkokpost.com/business/1959587/traders-on-board-with-us-valuationSo....with gold trading out of the picture, export receipts and exports bills in USD down also, and, fewer tourists exchanging currency into THB, the net impact should be: - foreign currency reserves that remain broadly static. - weaker demand for THB should weaken the currency but by how much, half of 50 bill is 5%? - the trade gap should remain unaffected.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 31, 2020 8:46:44 GMT 7
For Changers, excuse me if it takes a while to get back to you, just about to phone my bank, as mentioned before, when the pommie peso hits 40 I will transfer. Should be in my account on Friday. I like this site for tracking the behaviour of GBP/THB, thus far July is a straight line up which makes me think this rally has legs and that 42, the answer to everything in the universe, is very possible...it's my target anyway. www.poundsterlinglive.com/data/currencies/gbp-pairs/GBPTHB-exchange-rate/
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Jul 31, 2020 9:27:19 GMT 7
^^^ Whilst I look at it and I see it reaching a resistance level of ~41 (as it has done six times previously this year and not broken through), and it will now go down.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 31, 2020 17:02:03 GMT 7
^^^ Whilst I look at it and I see it reaching a resistance level of ~41 (as it has done six times previously this year and not broken through), and it will now go down. The question is, how low will she go, where's the floor, will she go all the way I wonder or is she merely a tease......here am at 70 I asking the same question I was asking when I was 16, nothing changes.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 31, 2020 17:47:40 GMT 7
An interesting point I hadn't considered is the impact on the economy of lower than normal birth rates, resulting from the covid19 virus. Apparently, lots of people are holding fire (as it were) and delaying having babies until the threat of the virus has truly passed. If the trend continues the effect of an ageing population will impact debt sustainability because there won't be sufficient people to work and pay taxes to sustain high debt levels. UK economists are already pencilling in a plunge in the birth rate that will take two decades to recover from. Given that Thailand already has a problem with an ageing population, the advent of the virus will compound the problem. I imagine at some point the government will ask people to step up to the plate and help in any, ahem, small way that they can, give your all for god and country, give generously and often, I know we can count on you to do your bit (and anyone else's bit who happens to be available). www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/07/30/britain-faces-demographic-timebomb-covid-baby-bust-looms/
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Post by rgs2001uk on Jul 31, 2020 20:33:36 GMT 7
^^^ Whilst I look at it and I see it reaching a resistance level of ~41 (as it has done six times previously this year and not broken through), and it will now go down. The question is, how low will she go, where's the floor, will she go all the way I wonder or is she merely a tease......here am at 70 I asking the same question I was asking when I was 16, nothing changes. I belong to the school of thought that says, a bird in the hand etc etc, can sleep at night knowing I have locked in at X baht Best of luck to those with bigger balls than me that are hanging on for a bit extra. Too be honest, its not as if we are transferring millions of pounds or baht, in which case you would contact your bank for details. I used to sit in the Dynasty Inn in Bangkok, and watch people come back with sweat dripping off them, they had walked from the lights on soi 4 up to Asoke and back looking for the best exchange rate, all to change a lousy $100, FFS.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Jul 31, 2020 20:47:09 GMT 7
An interesting point I hadn't considered is the impact on the economy of lower than normal birth rates, resulting from the covid19 virus. Apparently, lots of people are holding fire (as it were) and delaying having babies until the threat of the virus has truly passed. If the trend continues the effect of an ageing population will impact debt sustainability because there won't be sufficient people to work and pay taxes to sustain high debt levels. UK economists are already pencilling in a plunge in the birth rate that will take two decades to recover from. Given that Thailand already has a problem with an ageing population, the advent of the virus will compound the problem. I imagine at some point the government will ask people to step up to the plate and help in any, ahem, small way that they can, give your all for god and country, give generously and often, I know we can count on you to do your bit (and anyone else's bit who happens to be available). www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/07/30/britain-faces-demographic-timebomb-covid-baby-bust-looms/I dont know about Thailand having a problem with an ageing population, one thing I have noticed over the years is the falling birth rates. Talk to any women over lets say 60, and she will come from a family where 10 children and upwards was the norm. I laugh and joke with them about falling birth rates, they tell me years ago they didnt have televisions to watch, or radios to listen to in the bedroom. These days I see women in their 30s who tell me, two children enough, all to do with simple economics and the cost of educating children. I can take you to houses where 4 if not 5 generations live in the same house, I can show you houses in my area where 5 family members live in their own house, but all in the same soi as other family members. I talk to younger Thais, in their 20s, they cannot wait to get out of communal living and have their own privacy in some concrete coffin in the sky, not the way I would chose to live, but from their point of view I can understand. I witnessed at a kids birthday party a Thai woman wanting a hole in the ground to appear and swallow her, she had moved onwards and upwards from her ban nork upbringing, and now saw herself as some sort of modern Bangkok woman, surrounded by others of the same ilk, her upcountry hillbilly family rocked up and embarrassed her with their upcountry behaviour. I have mentioned before about Isaan people I know in Bangkok making excuses about not going upcountry for New Year or Songkran, they tell me it costs them too much, one guy, chose to stay in Bangkok and get paid 5,000 baht for 3 days work rather than go home.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 31, 2020 21:02:39 GMT 7
The question is, how low will she go, where's the floor, will she go all the way I wonder or is she merely a tease......here am at 70 I asking the same question I was asking when I was 16, nothing changes. I belong to the school of thought that says, a bird in the hand etc etc, can sleep at night knowing I have locked in at X baht Best of luck to those with bigger balls than me that are hanging on for a bit extra. Too be honest, its not as if we are transferring millions of pounds or baht, in which case you would contact your bank for details. I used to sit in the Dynasty Inn in Bangkok, and watch people come back with sweat dripping off them, they had walked from the lights on soi 4 up to Asoke and back looking for the best exchange rate, all to change a lousy $100, FFS. I've always kept at least 5 mill. here, it's only in the past couple of years that I haven't made any transfers because of poor ex. rates so I'm now considering topping up if the price is right. For me this is about estate planning and inheritance rather than needing THB to spend, I'm trying to make sure Mrs CM gets the best deal she can hence I usually transfer in 1 mill. blocks because that's cost effective on bank charges.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Jul 31, 2020 21:35:51 GMT 7
I belong to the school of thought that says, a bird in the hand etc etc, can sleep at night knowing I have locked in at X baht Best of luck to those with bigger balls than me that are hanging on for a bit extra. Too be honest, its not as if we are transferring millions of pounds or baht, in which case you would contact your bank for details. I used to sit in the Dynasty Inn in Bangkok, and watch people come back with sweat dripping off them, they had walked from the lights on soi 4 up to Asoke and back looking for the best exchange rate, all to change a lousy $100, FFS. I've always kept at least 5 mill. here, it's only in the past couple of years that I haven't made any transfers because of poor ex. rates so I'm now considering topping up if the price is right. For me this is about estate planning and inheritance rather than needing THB to spend, I'm trying to make sure Mrs CM gets the best deal she can hence I usually transfer in 1 mill. blocks because that's cost effective on bank charges. Your thought process and amounts involved are like a mirror image of mine. I think its fair to say, neither of us are reliant on having to transfer at least 40, or 65k baht per month, to renew our visa. For me its nothing to do with poor exchange rates, its all about getting more bang for my buck elsewhere, eg stock market performance, too be honest, the pound could hit 60 tomorrow and my money would still be invested in the uk stock markets, personally, I no longer feel its worth investing in Thai stocks or Thailand, no potential for growth or return, its not like 20 years ago when Aberdeen was flying and my mrs thought I was some sort of mor doo,(fortune teller) and financial guru or genuis. As mentioned before, anything over 40 is a bonus for me. No wonder the Thais tell us we think too mutt, , good luck, my mrs after all these years cannot get her head around pensions and what she will be paid for nothing (well thats not true, I maxed out every pension scheme I was in).
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