AyG
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
Posts: 5,871
Likes: 4,555
|
Post by AyG on Feb 2, 2021 7:21:37 GMT 7
Ponsonby Boothroyd-Smythe is currently serving ten to fifteen in Wandsworth for the manufacture and supply of crack. He will resume writing articles for the media after he's released and he joins the family brokerage firm in The City. Whilst if he were Thai drug dealer he'd end up a government minister.
|
|
chiangmai
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
Posts: 6,215
Likes: 5,227
|
Post by chiangmai on Feb 3, 2021 8:13:51 GMT 7
|
|
AyG
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
Posts: 5,871
Likes: 4,555
|
Post by AyG on Feb 3, 2021 10:01:04 GMT 7
Attractive performance on all the funds run by this FM, his track record seems excellent: Huh? AFAIK Eiswert only runs one fund. FWIW, the fund's largest holding is Facebook, and the P/E ratio is 30.8. Not one for me, that's sure.
|
|
chiangmai
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
Posts: 6,215
Likes: 5,227
|
Post by chiangmai on Feb 3, 2021 11:16:46 GMT 7
Apologies, I misread that. Nevertheless his performance for the past few years has been 100%. But of course if you're Facebook and Alphabet averse, even if in small doses, no amount of excellent performance will suit you. Personally, I'm more inclined to give a much heavier weighting to a fund based on the FM's track record, in that respect this man scores very highly. www2.trustnet.com/Managers/ManagerFactsheet.aspx?personcode=MC4223137&univ=O
|
|
|
Post by rgs2001uk on Feb 3, 2021 22:14:44 GMT 7
Attractive performance on all the funds run by this FM, his track record seems excellent: Huh? AFAIK Eiswert only runs one fund. FWIW, the fund's largest holding is Facebook, and the P/E ratio is 30.8. Not one for me, that's sure.Not for me either, thats for sure. I will add, the following rider, whats right for you and me itsnt whats right for someone else. What is the perfect portfolio? I know, mine isnt for everyone, but I am the one that has to sleep in bed at night with it, others sleep soundly with theirs.
|
|
chiangmai
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
Posts: 6,215
Likes: 5,227
|
Post by chiangmai on Feb 4, 2021 7:30:54 GMT 7
I was actually commenting on the Fund Managers' abilities rather than on the fund he operates, but your point about different strokes for different folks is still very appropriate. There's a risk with investing of becoming a purist or fund snob, oh no, I'd never consider that because....it's too big, too new, it's too popular, it's too technology heavy, it's P/E is all wrong, it's too heavily invested in region X Y or Z, the ratio of small to large caps is no good, it's heavily invested in company X which will never last, the FM is going to retire soon and so on. The risk of course is that you may never buy anything because there will always be something that's just not quite right.
I think it's that sort of attitude that drives people to use IFA's because surely they must know what they're doing whilst clearly I do not. I suppose the same is probably true of many professions. I was in plumbers merchants in Morecambe two years ago, trying to buy an instant hot water heater for the bathroom of my flat. The lad behind the counter started off by telling me that I must get a plumber in to do the job because I wouldn't be able to do it, a customer then chirped up and said that I'd be calling one out later to fix things after I'd cocked it all up.I think I've probably installed more instant hot water heaters since I've been in Thailand than the average plumber has in the UK. I've no doubt that an expert plumber could probably find a fault with my installation work somewhere, no matter how trivial it might be, but I get plenty of hot water when it's needed, the installation is electrically safe, it doesn't leak and it looks OK.....what more do I really need. The question of whether a Fund Manager can usefully be compared to a plumber is of course best left for another day, but that wasn't the objective of the analogy.
|
|
AyG
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
Posts: 5,871
Likes: 4,555
|
Post by AyG on Feb 4, 2021 8:38:26 GMT 7
I was actually commenting on the Fund Managers' abilities rather than on the fund he operates I don't think you were. I think you were effectively commenting upon what has been a decent run of performance. This is not the best way to judge a fund. As they say "Past Performance Is Not Indicative Of Future Results". Recent performance may have been good because, for example: - The fund manager has a style that is particularly effective in that part of the economic cycle - He (or she) may be investing in a class of stock that has become very popular, driving up the price (even if there's no economic fundamental basis for that price rise) - He may have been taking very risky bets of the "double or quits" sort. His annual bonus is based upon the fund's performance, so he'll risk it all so he can buy another Porche and an estate in the country. After all, it's not his own money that's being lost if the fund crashes. - He may just have got lucky. (The last one is perhaps the most common.) A superior stock picker can perhaps add 2-3% per annum over a benchmark on a fairly consistent basis over the long term. That is the sort of performance I expect to see from a good fund manager - not a large out performance in any one year, since that suggests that something is not right. Particularly at the moment equity prices are unreasonably high in many markets - particularly the US - and are not supported by the fundamentals. There is inevitably going to be a crash similar to those of 1987, 2001, 2008. Some would say its overdue. And the stocks that are going to be hit hardest are the ones that are driving funds to unreasonable heights. Crashes are very hard to predict and happen very fast. People won't have time to pull out, and will be hit hard. Slow and steady wins the race.
|
|
chiangmai
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
Posts: 6,215
Likes: 5,227
|
Post by chiangmai on Feb 4, 2021 8:53:20 GMT 7
"Attractive performance on all the funds run by this FM, his track record seems excellent" www2.trustnet.com/Managers/ManagerFactsheet.aspx?personcode=MC4223137&univ=OTake a deep breath and read it again, then take a look at his fact sheet performance stats and tell me his performance against his peers was anything other than quite good. Oh yes, and add "he got lucky" to my earlier list of reasons why a fund is not suitable.
|
|
AyG
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
Posts: 5,871
Likes: 4,555
|
Post by AyG on Feb 4, 2021 10:32:51 GMT 7
Take a deep breath and read it again, then take a look at his fact sheet performance stats and tell me his performance against his peers was anything other than quite good. Who gives a fig about how his peers performed? They might all be useless. One should be comparing about how he performs against a benchmark index. If you do that, things look rather different. From Morningstar, performance relative to benchmark: 2017 +3.0% 2018 +2.3% 2019 +2.4% 2020 +16.7% YTD -0.9% That provides a different picture. He shows good stock picking skill, typically beating the index by 2-3% annually. And in 2020 he got very lucky - possibly partly on the back of Facebook which doubled in price that year. (I haven't checked whether he was holding then.) www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/funds/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?id=F00000SZ36
|
|
chiangmai
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
Posts: 6,215
Likes: 5,227
|
Post by chiangmai on Feb 4, 2021 10:51:38 GMT 7
"Who gives a fig about how his peers performed? They might all be useless?"
You're probably right, every single one of his peers was utter carp in every category plus he got lucky, super lucky one year, his wife and kids are probably ugly also.
I can't imagine why I even suggested his talents, thanks for putting me straight.
|
|
AyG
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
Posts: 5,871
Likes: 4,555
|
Post by AyG on Feb 5, 2021 9:50:27 GMT 7
|
|
chiangmai
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
Posts: 6,215
Likes: 5,227
|
Post by chiangmai on Feb 5, 2021 10:01:54 GMT 7
An interesting and useful article, but....
Never before in the field of financial investing have so many people held so much money and not had anywhere else to put it, apart from into the markets. Never before has the economics of the entire planet stopped working at the same time for so long.
It's difficult if not impossible to model the future based on those two things.
|
|
chiangmai
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
Posts: 6,215
Likes: 5,227
|
Post by chiangmai on Feb 6, 2021 17:55:57 GMT 7
Given the unusual circumstances currently, has anyone considered taking a break from markets and sitting on the sidelines for six or twelve months? Yes I know you can't time the markets but there's such a thing as the balance of probability. AyG, don't yell at me, OK.
|
|
|
Post by rgs2001uk on Feb 6, 2021 20:08:34 GMT 7
Given the unusual circumstances currently, has anyone considered taking a break from markets and sitting on the sidelines for six or twelve months? Yes I know you can't time the markets but there's such a thing as the balance of probability. AyG, don't yell at me, OK. Yes, me. Nothing to do with the current climate, more a case of after trial and error finally having a portfolio I feel comfortable enough with for the next 12 months.
|
|
AyG
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
Posts: 5,871
Likes: 4,555
|
Post by AyG on Feb 6, 2021 20:33:20 GMT 7
^^^
I presumed chiangmai meant cashing everything in and waiting, as opposed to not tinkering with one's portfolio. Not really the same thing.
|
|