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Post by rgs2001uk on Apr 20, 2021 21:51:12 GMT 7
Latest update, as mentioned before, profit taking from, Croda, Scottish Mort, Edinburgh and Monks, reinvested in, BG Europe, Fidelity Europe, JP Morgan Emerg Mkts, Fundsmith, Martin Currie and Mid Wynd.
As of yesterday, portfolio now reads.
Croda, 6.6
BG Europe 5.6
Fidelity Europe 5.6
Jp Morgan Emerg Mkts 5.4
Bankers IT 4.3
Edinburgh 11.0
Fundsmith 9.3
Martin Currie 8.5
Mid Wynd 8.6
Monks 11.3
Polar Capital 5.4
Scottish Mort 13.4
Worldwide Health Care 4.3
Thats me finished, this can freewheel along for the next couple of years.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Apr 20, 2021 21:54:50 GMT 7
No apology needed. I certainly would feel uncomfortable with such a high percentage with one fund manager, even if it is Baillie Gifford. Their house style has worked well in recent years, but there's no guarantee that it will continue to do so indefinitely. And with Baillie Gifford, it really is a single house style applied across all their funds, which is quite unusual. Anyway, this prompted me to look at my own investments to see where I held more than one fund with the same fund manager. This is what I found (fund manager/percent holding/no. of funds): Artemis | 5.4% | 2 | Baillie Gifford | 9.9% | 3 | Janus Henderson | 7.1% | 3 | JP Morgan | 9.9% | 2 | Lindsell Train | 10.7% | 3 | Schroder | 8.0% | 2 |
That's out of 29 funds I currently hold, of which 4 are in Thailand. Not sure it means very much, other than that I'm not very concentrated in any single fund manager. And you were banging on about how the public shouldn't be buying into popular big name funds and here you are holding 20% in LT and BG...tsk tsk. My quick spanner monkey mind tells me he has 3% in 30 shares, nothing to get excited about there old bean, 555.
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Apr 21, 2021 10:22:23 GMT 7
How do you guys weight your different positions anyway? Is there any logic you follow (I believe there must be), similar to how passive investors weigh different geographies by market cap or GDP (e.g., developed world vs. emerging markets 70/30)? The rational way to do this is to start with an allocation based upon the market capitalisation of each county's bourses. That way you'll get exactly average performance (before fees). You can approximate this by buying a global index ETF. After that you can add various tilts (e.g. small caps, emerging markets, value) based upon your beliefs on how these sectors will outperform. (Some beliefs can be backed by historic performance, so are not irrational.) Precisely how large those tilts are is completely up to the individual investor. There's a pretty good (albeit US-centric) article on the subject at www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2014/07/17/to-tilt-or-not-to-tilt/?sh=5880e4014986However, this isn't what most investors do. They've read something by an "expert" who has determined an appropriate asset allocation by reading tea leaves or by regurgitating some hoary myth such as the 60/40 rule. They may then tweak the allocations based upon personal bias. Almost invariably the allocation will have significant home market bias.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Apr 22, 2021 21:19:25 GMT 7
^^^, , I think you have just described my approach to investing, thats not something that happened overnight by the way, took years of trial and error to finally end up where I am.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Apr 23, 2021 20:39:57 GMT 7
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Post by realisedurgency on Apr 25, 2021 19:50:35 GMT 7
SMT 44% MNKS 27.7% SAIN 15.4% EWI 12.9% BG 100% BG trusts have treated me well so far. SMT is so large due to performance. I intend to balance that out with additions to other trusts rather than selling SMT. Am I worried about being 100% BG? Not really. The trusts I have are a lot more different than similar. There is crossover here and there but not excessively. SAIN is definitely the most different from the others though.
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Apr 25, 2021 20:54:41 GMT 7
BG trusts have treated me well so far. I just hope you have a crystal ball that will tell you when the tide is about to turn and BG's approach is no longer the style du jour. Putting all your eggs in one basket also definitely springs to mind.
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Post by realisedurgency on Apr 25, 2021 21:24:18 GMT 7
True, there is an overarching long term global growth focus at BG, but the stocks within each holding I have are different enough for me. Also, when I have looked at other trusts suggested here and the stocks they hold, I will hold a large percentage of those stocks already via the four BG trusts I have.
If I do add trusts that are very different, that increases diversification sure, but at what point do I stop? If I added enough "different" trusts, would I not end up with something closer to the index/benchmark, but paying higher fees than taking a passive approach?
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Apr 26, 2021 6:47:45 GMT 7
SMT 44% MNKS 27.7% SAIN 15.4% EWI 12.9% BG 100% BG trusts have treated me well so far. SMT is so large due to performance. I intend to balance that out with additions to other trusts rather than selling SMT. Am I worried about being 100% BG? Not really. The trusts I have are a lot more different than similar. There is crossover here and there but not excessively. SAIN is definitely the most different from the others though. Wow...why take an unnecessary extra risk by relying on a single investment house for everything! There are sheds loads of excellent funds out there and there's also lots of good fund houses and managers, looking for them is a large part of the fun of investing. There's a secondary risk, which may actually be your primary risk, which is you've opted entirely for household name funds, the big winners of late, statistically you will lose that bet in the near to mid term.......I think.
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Apr 26, 2021 10:04:20 GMT 7
Out of curiosity I plotted the performance of Monks (B) against Vanguard FTSE All World UCITS ETF (A). (This ETF is based upon the benchmark assigned by Morningstar to the trust.) As you can see, from May 2012 to the start of 2017 the trust performed roughly in line with the benchmark - sometimes underperforming, sometimes out performing. Then in Q2 2017 it started outperforming quite nicely, only to lose virtually all that outperformance in the early part of 2020. Since then it's outperformed again. How to interpret this? (1) The years of matching the benchmark show that Baillie Gifford doesn't have some magic recipe that works in all market/economic conditions. (2) The collapse in 2020 suggests that Baillie Gifford is taking on a high level of risk - higher than the benchmark. (3) The outperformance over the last year suggests that Baillie Gifford continues to make risky bets, and another collapse is eminently possible. I suspect that individuals buying into Monks now may be in for an unpleasant surprise somewhere down the line.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Apr 26, 2021 11:18:34 GMT 7
I imagine the reason for much of that outperformance can be found in TSLA.
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Apr 26, 2021 12:35:23 GMT 7
^^^ I don't think so. Monks is much more diversified than Scottish Mortgage Trust and is only 1.7% in Tesla.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Apr 26, 2021 20:18:38 GMT 7
SMT 44% MNKS 27.7% SAIN 15.4% EWI 12.9% BG 100% BG trusts have treated me well so far. SMT is so large due to performance. I intend to balance that out with additions to other trusts rather than selling SMT. Am I worried about being 100% BG? Not really. The trusts I have are a lot more different than similar. There is crossover here and there but not excessively. SAIN is definitely the most different from the others though. Good man, sending you in these covid times a cyber handshake and manhug. A man with the courage of his convictions and puts his money where his mouth is, how refreshing to read.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Apr 26, 2021 20:20:52 GMT 7
I imagine the reason for much of that outperformance can be found in TSLA. It might not be fashinable to mention his name these days, Trump. Lets see how sleepy Joe does, its not that long ago the American economy was in the doldrums and did nothing for years.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Apr 26, 2021 20:27:17 GMT 7
True, there is an overarching long term global growth focus at BG, but the stocks within each holding I have are different enough for me. Also, when I have looked at other trusts suggested here and the stocks they hold, I will hold a large percentage of those stocks already via the four BG trusts I have. If I do add trusts that are very different, that increases diversification sure, but at what point do I stop? If I added enough "different" trusts, would I not end up with something closer to the index/benchmark, but paying higher fees than taking a passive approach? I find it very hard to disagree with a word you say, for the simple reason, I agree with you. However, the time will come when you are looking for wealth protection rather than wealth generation, theres a difference between having 44% holding in a 10k portfolio and having 44% holding in a 100k portfolio. At this moment in time, if you are young enough,have the secuirty of a well paid job behind you, by all means go for capital growth, and review your holdings closer to retirement. You are in a fortunate position, it took me years of trial and error, research etc etc, to be in the position you are in, keep the faith.
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