chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 11, 2023 5:19:24 GMT 7
high 44 or 45 would work for me. 2016 was the beginning of the low numbers. 90% of the time since has been spent sub 44, apart from a few spikes.
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rott
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The Baht
Oct 11, 2023 8:23:01 GMT 7
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Post by rott on Oct 11, 2023 8:23:01 GMT 7
So you feel that this is pretty well as good as it gets then changers.? For how long is the next question. Is it the general feeling that UK interest rates will remain high until mid 2025.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 11, 2023 8:31:40 GMT 7
Eeeek! So many easy questions!!!
I really don't know the answer to those questions, I'm not sure anyone does. Logically, there will be a recession next year, the extent of it and its duration are complete unknowns. But as recession bites, interest rates will fall in order to try and stimulate economic recovery which will be uneven and inconsistent globally. Much will depend on what happens to the US, and let's not forget, next year is an election year. I'm guessing when I say I don't think interest rates will stay as high as they are today, for another 20/24 months, economies wont withstand that. Then of course there's the old Rumsfield's, known knowns, known unknowns, etc etc., fact is there's too much bad stuff going on at present to begin to reasonably guess much more than 3 months out, let alone two years. Sorry I can't be more helpful.
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siampolee
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The Baht
Oct 11, 2023 8:35:58 GMT 7
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Post by siampolee on Oct 11, 2023 8:35:58 GMT 7
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rott
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Post by rott on Oct 11, 2023 8:42:10 GMT 7
As ever tvm for your prompt response changers. I was parroting some punter who appeared on my feed. On reflection I'll leave my £100 in the building society for the moment, but will continue to monitor it.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 11, 2023 8:42:54 GMT 7
And I don't think it has to be a case of the exchange rate ever being as good as it gets, I think it's more a question of whether the rate is sufficiently good enough. That's why it helps to have target in mind and then to exchange when you hit that strike price. Another useful strategy perhaps is to wait until you reach the strike price and then exchange 50% and set a new strike price, and so on.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 11, 2023 8:44:16 GMT 7
I'd rather try to define the meaning of life, it might be easier.
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rott
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Post by rott on Oct 11, 2023 8:54:49 GMT 7
You've had a busy morning so far changers, a shot of Regency with your hot chocolate would be well deserved. Fish for lunch as per Jeeves would recharge the brain no end.
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Oct 11, 2023 16:30:07 GMT 7
What I would like to know how are the banks and or the finance ministry going to identify foreign income ie state and private pensions plus how to equate to the UK starting rate for tax liability? Remember that one is entitled to 12,750 pounds tax free yearly allowance. I foresee a gigantic cock up and scam scheme on the Thai horizon.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 11, 2023 17:05:02 GMT 7
What I would like to know how are the banks and or the finance ministry going to identify foreign income ie state and private pensions plus how to equate to the UK starting rate for tax liability? Remember that one is entitled to 12,750 pounds tax free yearly allowance. I foresee a gigantic cock up and scam scheme on the Thai horizon. The banks already record inbound overseas transactions as income, whether or not it is assessible income is another story. US Social Security income is only capable of being taxed by the US, other parties to any Double Tax Agreement are specifically forbidden from taxing it. That means, US SSc income, payable to foreigners in Thailand, is excluded income for Thai tax purposes. The UK has no comparable agreement on the State Pensions or private pensions, both are regarded as taxable income in Thailand so they should be included on the Thai tax return. I don't believe the fact that the UK has a 12,570 Personal Allowance is relevant, that's a UK affair, not Thailands. Thailand says that the over age 65 person is entitled to deduct 190k Baht from their assessible income, along with a 60k baht personal care allowance as well as other allowances and deductions for things such as spouse, medical premiums, children etc. Details of the allowances are linked below. The amount that is left is then subject to the Thai Revenue Department tax tables, of which the first 150k are zero rated. So, the average single over ag 65 male can deduct 190k + 60k + 150k (plus any other deductions they have) before they begin to pay tax at 5%, 10%, 15% etc, in bands according to the table. That further means that the average tax free allowance in Thailand for an over 65 year old, using the allowances/deductions mentioned above, is 400k Baht. If somebody imports an amount that falls within the 400k, there is no Thai tax obligation. If however they import 410k, 10k is subject to tax at 5%, unless they can prove that the 10k was already taxed and/or is savings not income. The accounting for all of this is almost certainly going to be done via tax return and it will be down to the individual to account for everything correctly. I guess if the Revenue Department in Thailand doesn't believe the return or has information about transfers not accounted for, there will be some follow up. BTW as things stand, only funds that are remitted to Thailand are potentially taxable, funds that remain outside the country are not. Lastly, all of this is work in progress, there is very little that is firm, other than the new process will begin with transaction on 1 January 2024. sherrings.com/personal-tax-deductions-allowances-thailand.htmlsherrings.com/personal-income-tax-rates-thailand.html
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 12, 2023 20:15:43 GMT 7
USD DI is down to 105.xx,
Pound is down against THB one baht,
USD is up against the Pound.
The CPI report is the problem, it came in pretty much on target hence less risk of further rate increases, USD fell as a result and equites turned up. It could be that we've seen the peak, dunno, unsure.
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rott
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Post by rott on Oct 13, 2023 22:55:17 GMT 7
Yes indeed, it looks like those new flip flops and matching medium black socks will have to wait for the peace initiative. And that Beer Laos Dark vest, well I just don't know. Mind you I haven't looked today, it could be all rosy again. Ha - bitter laugh.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 15, 2023 11:33:28 GMT 7
There seems to be a lot nervousness out there regarding escalation of the Israel/Hamas war, I guess that the flow of oil from ME suppliers is the main issue but also the extent to which a wider conflict would disrupt trade and tip the global economy into recession. ME carriers that transport tourists to Thailand will be impacted, the oil price will increase and exports will also affect us. Thai exports will find fewer buyers in the ME and will take longer to arrive there but tourism from Asia and particularly China should not be affected. I don't see much in there that's Baht positive, TBH.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 15, 2023 20:39:34 GMT 7
The PT party has said in the papers that the 10k digital wallet give away will go ahead but some of the details may be changed plus there is still no clarity as to the source of the 560 bill. needed to fund the program.
What can be said, there is no question it will cause inflation to increase, even PT seems to acknowledge this. Higher inflation almost certainly means higher bank rates which has the potential to increase the value of the Baht. But unless income in the form of Tourism and Exports increase also, the trade deficit will increase and the Baht will plunge in value. The new 560 bill. debt alone will also be Baht negative plus increased interest rates will cause problems with NPL's. This all looks like bloody mindedness accompanied by a lack of economic common sense, this could end very badly.
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Mosha
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Post by Mosha on Oct 16, 2023 1:53:23 GMT 7
The PT party has said in the papers that the 10k digital wallet give away will go ahead but some of the details may be changed plus there is still no clarity as to the source of the 560 bill. needed to fund the program. What can be said, there is no question it will cause inflation to increase, even PT seems to acknowledge this. Higher inflation almost certainly means higher bank rates which has the potential to increase the value of the Baht. But unless income in the form of Tourism and Exports increase also, the trade deficit will increase and the Baht will plunge in value. The new 560 bill. debt alone will also be Baht negative plus increased interest rates will cause problems with NPL's. This all looks like bloody mindedness accompanied by a lack of economic common sense, this could end very badly. I can imagine the pensioners, with no emotional ties to Thailand, looking for another home.
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