chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 16, 2023 2:05:17 GMT 7
It's stunning that some people still believe the trickle down multiplier works, despite the evidence to the contrary. It's also ironic that the giveaway program, designed to help the poor and improve the economy, is the very thing that will hurt them both the most. I suppose if you're a billionaire you probably don't care too much and that giveing the money away and saving face, because you said this is what you were going to do, is most important.
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Mosha
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Post by Mosha on Oct 16, 2023 2:34:15 GMT 7
It's stunning that some people still believe the trickle down multiplier works, despite the evidence to the contrary. It's also ironic that the giveaway program, designed to help the poor and improve the economy, is the very thing that will hurt them both the most. I suppose if you're a billionaire you probably don't care too much and that giveing the money away and saving face, because you said this is what you were going to do, is most important. When the minimum wage was raised to 300 Baht, our tanks of water went up 2 Baht. Not a great deal in the grand scheme of things, but that was a 20% increase. Other stuff like meat has gone up much more. |
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 16, 2023 6:14:02 GMT 7
Gov appears out of touch with reality, even worse is they ignore the BOT and respected economists globally, who in their right mind would do that! I have a feeling this is Thaksin's doing.
So, where does it go from there and what happens?
Say the giveaway starts in November, consumer prices will have started to rise by January. THB probably remains flat because of the extra debt. US rates may have increased slightly, more likely flat if recession is even hinted at. The problem with trying to guess what happens in Thailand is that the action taken by Thailand will depend on the state of the global economy at the time, particularly the US. Thailand doesn't need to be increasing rates when global rates are falling, everyone else in the world is defeating inflation and trying to stimulate their economy whilst Thailand is doing the opposite, albeit that might attract some capital inflows!
By mid year 2024, the global economy is in recession, especially if the ME blows up. Oil is likely to be pricey. Asian tourism will be OK/good, Western tourism will be carp. Exports are still constrained, Thai inflation is up. BOT increases rates, it has no choice, NPL's are up. Few people are happy except expats because the Baht remains weak except any exchange rate gain has been wiped out by rising prices.
Alternate Scenario
The ME doesn't blow up, the US doesn't go into recession, global rates fall, tourism returns, exports take off and little pink fairies appear at the bottom of the garden....life is good. Except expats are unhappy because THB has strengthened back to 39 per Pound and consumer prices have increased.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 16, 2023 7:47:50 GMT 7
It's stunning that some people still believe the trickle down multiplier works, despite the evidence to the contrary. It's also ironic that the giveaway program, designed to help the poor and improve the economy, is the very thing that will hurt them both the most. I suppose if you're a billionaire you probably don't care too much and that giveing the money away and saving face, because you said this is what you were going to do, is most important. When the minimum wage was raised to 300 Baht, our tanks of water went up 2 Baht. Not a great deal in the grand scheme of things, but that was a 20% increase. Other stuff like meat has gone up much more. Mrs CM runs a baked goods business from home, she's done very well and turns over a million is sales every year, I try to keep an eye on the numbers because she's not very good at that. Every month I do a bank recon and calculate cost vs profit etc. Her costs have been rising by at least 10% per year for the past two years. Four years ago when she started this we agreed an overall average minimum profit margin of 50% and a target of 62%. She starts off the year every September at 62%, no more than ten months later she's doing a good trade but her margins have fallen to 35/38% so finally she relents and increases prices by 10% ish, (she hates this because she's afraid she'll lose customers which she never does). Her products are all paid for out of discretionary spending, there's nothing essential about anything she sells. Over the past two years we've seen a shift in her customer base from country wide to 90% in Bangkok, we've also seen some suppliers increase their prices three times a year, and reduce product size. We've also seen a consistent drop of in sales during the last week of the month, meaning that people are running short of cask before month end. An average of 10% price increase per year, gawd only knows what it will be after the giveaway. |
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siampolee
Detective
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Post by siampolee on Oct 16, 2023 9:23:32 GMT 7
I fear this county is heading towards a financial and social Armagedón in the not too distant future, resulting in no doubt a self serving military dictatorship . Of course those ruining running the country for their own ends to establish their own personal fiefdom(s) will of course be over the hills and faraway with their ill gotten gains. Something or some people have to give if such scenarios are to, or must be avoided. The future in all its possible scenarios is indeed bleak for this country and its peoples.  |
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 16, 2023 12:17:32 GMT 7
Analysts saying that oil could easily rise to USD 150 pb., it's currently at 90 of so.
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Mosha
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Post by Mosha on Oct 16, 2023 17:23:43 GMT 7
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 17, 2023 8:19:57 GMT 7
An interesting article from Reuters suggests that equities may out perform, despite the bond market. But even more interesting is that despite everything that's going on, including a nightmare scenario in the ME, is this: "The situation in the Middle East, meanwhile, doesn’t appear to be weighing too heavily on global risk appetite - implied stock market volatility, gold, the dollar, Treasuries and oil all fell on Monday. Wall Street’s main indexes and the benchmark MSCI indexes for world, Asian and emerging stocks are all higher since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel". www.reuters.com/article/global-markets-view-asia/morning-bid-asia-stocks-break-higher-but-for-longer-too-idUSL8N3BM6N0Er, that's not supposed to happen! |
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Oct 17, 2023 12:18:00 GMT 7
Worth a read and certainly thought provoking as well. The financial world is certainly in a somewhat parlous state at the moment. Current events, unseen at the time this report was commissioned and published may well put the cat amongst the pigeons and for some their pensions too.  Maybe call to Mystic Meg via a Ouija board might give a clearer picture of what may be coming and what plans and steps that could be taken. 
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siampolee
Detective
Alive alive O
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Post by siampolee on Oct 17, 2023 13:33:05 GMT 7
One could suppose it is Baht related but the article is very pertinent to the governments current mishandling of the Thai economy , note it was written by a Pheu Thai supporter. Proves that some of them have common sense. Bricklayers hands may be fine for handling bricks and trowels, however they are not made for fancy juggling of financial balls. Looks like a big ''Balls Up.''  |
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 17, 2023 13:52:25 GMT 7
Can I just say that with the US involved in the Ukraine and engaged in Israel, now would be a stunning time for China to invade Taiwan.
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siampolee
Detective
Alive alive O
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Post by siampolee on Oct 17, 2023 14:37:13 GMT 7
Never understand America and its attitudes to conflict, Last millennium, century whatever, the Americans rolled up late on two occasion to join in the fun when the world was engulfed in conflict. Now they're in the front row as reviewers and waiting for the next fun filled event(s)  |
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Oct 17, 2023 16:39:53 GMT 7
And how long before the bricklayer financial expert tells Thai banks to do the same?
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 18, 2023 5:41:06 GMT 7
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 18, 2023 6:04:18 GMT 7
And how long before the bricklayer financial expert tells Thai banks to do the same? There's a difference between what the President of China can tell state controlled banks in a communist country and what the PM of a democracy can do where the banks are all privately owned and under the stewardship and oversight control of BOT. I think the short answer to the question is....a very very long time. |
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