One of the problems with any type of bank having to roll over debt is that their balance sheet begins to show a loss, because they didn't receive the income or capital they expected. That could easily put a "not for profit" bank that is state owned, into insolvency, after which BOT has to get involved. So it gets messy, the borders between state owned and privately owned become fluid and blurred.

Just saw an article that talked about a cure for the non-performing loans (NPL'S) issue, oddly it's the same one proposed by Chartchai in his Bangkok Post column. A trial program will be started whereby some NPL's will be transferred from the lending banks, to a separate company who will reimburse the banks at the face value of the loan - that's the banks balance sheet off the hook. That's also the borrower off the hook because it means he never defaulted on the loan so he doesn't have to wait 7 years before borrowing again! All that remains is for the new company to manage repayment of the NPL, presumably that will be a discounted rate of interest, over a longer term.

My take is that everyone wins, apart from the proxy bank which appears to get stuffed good and proper.

Seems to me to be a very ''novel fiscal'' take on factoring, or gambling. I foresee a rise in creative business practices by certain types, puts the Hopewell affair the shade



Nearly two decades ago, elusive roulette mastermind Niko Tosa and two of his partners were arrested after raking in £1.3 million at the upscale Ritz Club casino

Upon my soul!

Look at what has just hit the headlines in Thailands fiscal world...

Perchance the shape of things to come regarding the proposed reassigning of fragile credit issues!


www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2668311/high-profile-broker-accused-of-b1bn-fraud

Things got ugly again, equities are once again being trashed and this time it could be serious. USD is on the rise again, it's breached 106% and is headed upwards, the VIX fear gauge is doing similar, as are bond yields.

This time it's the Mid East war and fears it will spread, the Biden/Rishi visits are seen to have failed. Plus US equities earning seasons results (currently underway) are not what were hoped for.

So what are the implications for the Baht? Improved international tourist arrivals are getting lots of press but it's hard to tell what the true picture is because oil is still over $90. Our leader is off shaking hands with despots and villains and grinning a lot, does this mean he's doing lots of business for the country or is he just collecting snaps for his retirement picture book, I lean towards the latter. I think this is still a USD and Thai exports story, the one needs to weaken considerably, the other needs to do the opposite and there's not much prospect of either, as far as I can see. But high season is upon us so the tourism success story will get talked up a lot. Domestic tourism is likely to be buoyant because petrol prices have been lowered, CM is starting to get crowded. I spoke with some small business owners during the week, one a Swiss man and his wife who own an upmarket cafe in the mountains. He tells that business is low and only ticking over, it's fine for him because he has no debt but he guesses things must be bad for those who do. Mrs CM's order book is empty for the rest of the month, which is unusual, she had a brilliant first three weeks of the month but now it's dead.....perhaps people running out of money before the end of the month, dunno. We went to buy supplies for Mrs CM and found some businesses have put up supply costs by huge amounts, seems to be the old Thai story of too few sales so increases the cost. One product is widely sold at 360 baht, we found one woman selling it at 435, eventually we found it at 330!

My finger in the air is, USD up (but one wonders how high it can go), Pound Down (it had its worst month against USD for over a year, the forecast is falling interest rates and economic outlook next year will cause it to weaken further). Baht, flat or maybe up slightly (because of Pound weakness and because of improved tourism receipts). Expect lots of volatility if the ME war kicks off in earnest.

A growing army of respected people saying that the US will go into recession next year and that USD will fall in value, all of which fits very well with the things I see and understand. The combination of Ukraine and the ME negatively impacts global trade and global prices, US consumers may seem resilient at the moment but they are running out of ammo. Mortgage rates are very high for the US so property values falling; investors are bailing out of equities at a rapid rate and going into cash; oil price remains high and has the potential to go very high if the ME blows up. Cracks should start to appear by end 1Q24, the Fed will want to keep rates high in order to manage inflation but business and consumers will want lower rates because they're both being squeezed, something has to give. Lots of variables and unknowns of course but the message here is USD is going down before too long and that means the exchange rate against the Baht will worsen.

'Twould seem all is not sweetness and light for the bricklayer come Finance Minister. looks as if he might need a ''bit more muck'' on his trowel to cement his financial bricks together.

Sems he hasn't got rhe determination and skills the old Mc'Alpines Fuselier's had.

Opinion – Srettha’s honeymoon crashes along with the stock market


www.thaienquirer.com/50980/opinion-sretthas-honeymoon-seems-to-be-crashlanding-with-thailands-stock-market/



Stocks set for another week of decline

www.bangkokpost.com/business/investment/2670729/stocks-set-for-another-week-of-decline