siampolee
Detective
Alive alive O
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Post by siampolee on Oct 27, 2023 11:16:07 GMT 7
Te truth is the whole idea was and is no more than a populist vote catching scam which is now proving to have more holes in it than the socks shown below. And we all know how Thais feel about feet don't we...
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Mosha
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Post by Mosha on Oct 27, 2023 11:40:57 GMT 7
3 new bills. Gender equality, Marriage equality (not just Men and Women). Plus legalising prostitution. I said to my Mrs a week or two back that this government are on a tax grab. The last one proves my point I think.
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siampolee
Detective
Alive alive O
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Post by siampolee on Oct 27, 2023 11:44:29 GMT 7
Strange no people equality, the untouchable unspeakable caste(s) remains secure no matter what,
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siampolee
Detective
Alive alive O
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Post by siampolee on Oct 29, 2023 8:20:54 GMT 7
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 29, 2023 8:57:02 GMT 7
Mmmm, quite scary in fact.
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siampolee
Detective
Alive alive O
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Post by siampolee on Oct 29, 2023 10:45:57 GMT 7
Not Yazz I'm sure, fit bird in the days then
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 30, 2023 5:29:45 GMT 7
An excerpt from an interview with a very clear thinking CEO of HSBC: www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/10/29/britain-tipping-point-global-reckoning/As central bank rates have risen, so have government borrowing costs. US sovereign bond yields have topped 5pc, the highest since 2007, just before the Lehman collapse. The UK’s 30-year gilt yield is now 5.2pc - a 25-year high. Much of the West seems caught in a high-debt, high-tax, slow-growth trap, the firm grip of economic orthodoxy making it tough to escape. But what could be Quinn’s “tipping point” that drives bond yields even higher, causing fiscal and financial chaos? Some argue that America faces recession and market meltdown – but I don’t buy it. The world’s largest economy looks resilient, on course to expand 2.1pc this year and 2.5pc in 2024. There are market jitters and President Joe Biden has been spending heavily. But despite the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the spring, US financial institutions are better capitalised than in 2008. Inflation has dropped from 9.1pc last July to 3.7pc, boosting real wages and confidence, driving buoyant GDP growth of 4.9pc during the third quarter. Despite that, with inflation “moderating”, in the words of Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell, I still think US rates will remain on hold, when Fed policymakers meet on Wednesday. It’s the UK, though, not Italy, that faces the highest debt interest bill in the developed world this year, according to Fitch Ratings. Britain will spend £110bn, an astonishing 10.4pc of government revenue, on debt servicing during 2023 – the second largest item on the state balance sheet, after the NHS – due to our high share of inflation-linked gilts.The UK economy has stalled, with the latest PMI surveys suggesting GDP is already contracting, one reason the Bank of England must surely hold rates on Thursday. And as an oil importer, with still very limited gas storage, Britain is particularly exposed if the combination of a cold winter, Middle Eastern turmoil and geopolitical intrigue causes a spike in oil and gas prices – which could see inflation surge again, pushing government borrowing costs even higher. Europe is much more likely than the US or China to be the “tipping point” that sparks a “global reckoning”, in my view – and that includes the UK.
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Oct 30, 2023 11:35:01 GMT 7
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Mosha
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Post by Mosha on Oct 30, 2023 19:21:48 GMT 7
I'm a complete cynic when it comes to how it takes for my pension to enter my account. A falling pound rhe money takes forever, a rising pound the can't get it in my account quick enough. The company pays expats on the 23rd, unless it's a weekend or UK Bank Holiday. Now 23rd here was a holiday, and my money was here on Friday. That's 4 working days.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Oct 31, 2023 3:43:51 GMT 7
I'm a complete cynic when it comes to how it takes for my pension to enter my account. A falling pound rhe money takes forever, a rising pound the can't get it in my account quick enough. The company pays expats on the 23rd, unless it's a weekend or UK Bank Holiday. Now 23rd here was a holiday, and my money was here on Friday. That's 4 working days. I understand very well how you feel Steve because I've felt similar in the past. After while though, you begin to see that the timing issues are something else and not related to what you initially thought, you wait and see.
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siampolee
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The Baht
Oct 31, 2023 8:02:17 GMT 7
via mobile
Post by siampolee on Oct 31, 2023 8:02:17 GMT 7
I've often wondered if the machinations of what has replaced the old LIBOR scheme or later known as a scam influences exchange rates. Plus The Bank of Thailand is somewhat like a sloth in its (if any) movements over weekends and holidays.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Nov 2, 2023 6:56:37 GMT 7
The Baht strengthened slightly in recent days, maybe you're wondering why? It seems that exports during September were better than expected and managed to break the downward losing streak for the second straight month. Exports gained 2.1% YoY but more significantly, imports fell by 8.3% YoY. That gave us a trade surplus of USD 2 bill which caused THB to strengthen. Looking forward, the export picture looks risky because the ME is a key area for Thai automobile exports, especially pickup trucks, auto's represent 10% of Thai exports.
More positive news is that the financial giveaway appears to have been kicked into the long grass so that's one less thing to worry about.
Oil has dropped below USD 90 so fingers crossed there, plus USD has strengthened yet again touching 107% at one point overnight, that should keep the ex rate decent for expats for a while.
And Jerome has been speaking again, markets think he's now 97% done with rate increases but we've heard that before. Still, the indicators are this may be the case, this time around. Equity markets took the news positively so the S&P started to move upwards. The big problem with that is the 2 year yield curve which fell but is still inverted, the rate on the 2 year is still higher than the the rate on the 10 year. That says markets are expecting another rate increase and if they are, equities will get hammered yet again. Also, most investment houses have lowered their estimates for the S&P at year end, 4,400 seems likely, 4,600 seems a bridge too far. One famous investor said last week, "invest now, anywhere but in the US"! Who knows, I certainly don't.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Nov 2, 2023 9:11:11 GMT 7
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Nov 4, 2023 11:22:58 GMT 7
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Nov 6, 2023 6:50:25 GMT 7
And by contrast: In the view of Brendan McKenna, an emerging market strategist at Wells Fargo & Co., the Indonesian rupiah, Philippine peso and Thai baht are among the best bets. Other experts point the fact that Asian central banks enough firepower to defend their currencies. All monetary authorities in the region now have foreign-exchange reserves that can cover well over three months of imports. “Asia can outperform the next few months of the year — a bit of a Santa rally,” said McKenna. “I like the currencies associated with some of the more hawkish central banks.” finance.yahoo.com/news/emerging-asia-currencies-buoyed-rate-120000871.htmlThe US DI is down to 105%, logically the THB exchange rate will only get stronger, heading for 40 per Pound soon.
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