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Post by Fletchsmile on Aug 11, 2015 22:09:05 GMT 7
China's devaluation of the Yuan today has certainly sparked a lot of interest and news. These days China has more and more of an impact. Devaluation isn't good news for some if on the subject of currency wars, might also contribute to delaying the raising of USD interest rates, and for companies like Apple which have CNY earnings. Not so good news for the AUD and the Aussie's - particularly after their thrashing in the Ashes On the other hand the knock-on impact on Emerging market currencies might be useful to people like Smokie in his quest for GBP/THB 70 - or at least 60 before Xmas Will be quite a few knock-on impacts around the world but is it a clever move again by the Chinese? What's your thoughts? ======================================================================= China Rattles Markets With Yuan DevaluationChina devalued the yuan in a move that rippled through global markets, as policy makers stepped up efforts to support exporters and boost the role of market pricing in Asia’s largest economy. The central bank cut its daily reference rate by 1.9 percent, triggering the yuan’s biggest one-day drop since China ended a dual-currency system in January 1994. The People’s Bank of China called the change a one-time adjustment and said its fixing will become more aligned with supply and demand. contd. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-11/china-weakens-yuan-reference-rate-by-record-1-9-amid-slowdown
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Aug 12, 2015 8:30:45 GMT 7
The move by China and the state of the Russian economy may well go some way to strengthening more viable currencies.However those that benefit in one way will lose in my view on the industrial and export front.Increased costs and inflation , currency speculation could well work in the long term to benefit both the Russian and Chinese economies.
We also need to remember that Greece is still a basket case financially and there are a number of members of the E.U who are best described as walking wounded financial casualties.
This in my view is a step towards a worldwide economic slowdown with more adverse affects than we are now currently seeing.
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Aug 12, 2015 9:57:15 GMT 7
The People’s Bank of China called the change a one-time adjustment and said its fixing will become more aligned with supply and demand. Except it wasn't a one time adjustment, and the Yuan has fallen a further 2-and-a-bit percent today. It seems that China is just as selfish in manipulating its exchange rate as the US. No consideration of the impact upon other countries' economies. Source: uk.reuters.com/article/2015/08/12/uk-markets-global-idUKKCN0QH01T20150812
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Post by Fletchsmile on Aug 12, 2015 11:26:13 GMT 7
The People’s Bank of China called the change a one-time adjustment and said its fixing will become more aligned with supply and demand. Except it wasn't a one time adjustment, and the Yuan has fallen a further 2-and-a-bit percent today. It seems that China is just as selfish in manipulating its exchange rate as the US. No consideration of the impact upon other countries' economies. Source: uk.reuters.com/article/2015/08/12/uk-markets-global-idUKKCN0QH01T20150812Yes I didn't expect it to be a one-time adjustment. Like you say they're following the concept of look after number 1 - boost their exports, move a step closer to including in basket of IMF currencies. Even think the Chinese take it a step further and try and undermine the US - then again I'm sure behind the scenes US does likewise with China, Russia etc
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Aug 12, 2015 12:09:52 GMT 7
Based upon the Big Mac index, China is 42.8% undervalued against the Yankee Dollar. (That's July's figure.) It's going to take a lot more small steps to get anywhere close to a "fair" exchange rate. I do rather wonder whether there'll be another adjustment tomorrow, and again the day after. Things in China aren't going too swimmingly at the moment: slowing growth, vast amounts of wasted infrastructure development, crashing stock markets propped up by obscene amounts of cash. Perhaps this is the beginning of a larger adjustment.
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Mosha
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Post by Mosha on Aug 13, 2015 7:36:14 GMT 7
Devalued again 2nd day runnung
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Aug 13, 2015 9:39:26 GMT 7
Devalued again 2nd day runnung I think you may mean 3rd day running. It's down a further 1.1% this morning.
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Mosha
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Post by Mosha on Aug 13, 2015 10:09:14 GMT 7
Indonesia and Malaysia defending their currencies according to BBC. I suspect they are not the only ones.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 13, 2015 14:48:50 GMT 7
Re the currency - 64/£ is the best I saw - and these days I'm that used to 50 that anything above feels like a bonus.
I'll keep buying at today's rate as today's reality is always better than tomorrows dream.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 13, 2015 15:07:00 GMT 7
There is another lesson from the currency movement.
I lay short odds that there will be plenty of Brit pensioners in Thailand who will use this increase as an opportunity to increase their spending rather than saving while they are relatively ahead.
Then they'll squeal like scalded cats if the rate goes below 50 again.
Build your tank up while you can.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Aug 13, 2015 15:08:32 GMT 7
Interesting developments in the Chinese markets from several perspectives. All the fuss over Greece was minor in comparison to the questions that this could lead to... BB article below touches on some of the angles and implications ========================================================================== Yuan Drop Slows as PBOC Intervention Threat Ends Panic SellingAugust 13, 2015 — 8:26 AM ICT Updated on August 13, 2015 — 1:17 PM ICT Yuan declines eased after the central bank signaled support for the currency, bringing an end to two days of panic selling that sparked the biggest rout since 1994. The onshore spot rate weakened 0.5 percent as of 2:08 p.m. in Shanghai, after a two-day loss of 2.8 percent. The freely traded offshore yuan rebounded 1.1 percent, after losing at least 2 percent on each of the last two days. The People’s Bank of China intervened to support the currency in mainland trading on Wednesday, according to people familiar with the matter. The PBOC said in a rare press conference on Thursday that there’s no basis for depreciation to persist and that it will step in to control large fluctuations. China is shifting to a more market-determined exchange rate after a four-month de facto peg that prevented depreciation as the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates buoyed the dollar. “The PBOC has drawn a line in the sand and given verbal guidance to the market,” said Eddie Cheung, a strategist at Standard Chartered Plc in Shanghai. “If there are distortions, such as a very large gap between the onshore and offshore rates, the central bank will come in and stabilize the market.” continued... www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-13/pboc-s-yuan-reference-rate-drops-for-third-day-after-devaluation
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Post by Fletchsmile on Aug 13, 2015 20:13:37 GMT 7
Some reasonable thoughts from Moneyweek below. Can't say I would be looking to add to the Chinese stock market or Chinese bonds though, and if invested directly in individual shares I would be reconsidering my holdings. Simply don't want the risk at the moment with the added risk of CNY/CNH depreciation. That said I'll still have some exposure through emerging market / global / Asia unit trusts, but will let them make the calls
========================== China has lit a firecracker under the market
Dear Reader, The value of the yuan has dropped for the third day in a row. But the pace of the drop is easing. And the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the country’s central bank, called a press conference this morning to calm everyone down. The PBOC argued that there is no reason for the currency to continue to fall. Of course, as Gavyn Davies put it in the FT, they would say that, wouldn’t they?
So what’s next?
Here’s why China wants a weaker yuan
Let’s try to take a step back here. Every government and central bank in the world now manipulates their economy in a pretty blatant manner. But China has more leeway and more power to do it than most. So what are they trying to achieve here?
China certainly wants more influence over the global currency regime. So while the idea of being deemed a reserve currency by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) might seem like a cosmetic point to us, I suspect it’s a genuine motivator for China. And that means loosening up the currency regime.
Having a weaker currency would also be helpful. You can argue that the export figures at the weekend weren’t as bad as they looked, as Capital Economics point out. But even the IMF recently noted that the yuan was no longer undervalued. In fact, the central bank has been forced to sell US dollars in recent months to prop up the yuan.
Probably even more pertinent, is that by tying its currency to the rising US dollar, China has effectively been importing tighter monetary policy, which is deflationary at a time when China’s growth is slowing. That has made the central bank’s various interest rate cuts less effective.
So allowing the market a bit more say in the matter meets both goals. It allows China to take a step towards making the IMF happier (by liberalising its currency regime) with the happy coincidence that the market happens to think the yuan should be weaker than it was.
As Gavyn Davies notes in his FT blog: “China wishes to avoid any hint of ‘currency manipulation’… but it no longer has to manipulate the currency market in order to achieve a devaluation. All it has to do is to stop manipulating the free market, and capital outflows will probably take the exchange rate much lower.”
Of course, the tricky thing is figuring out how far this might go. The PBOC has stepped in to stop things from falling too far too fast, and it has also argued that it has no desire to see the currency fall much further.
But – knee-jerk cynicism aside – you would expect that. This is a nation that prizes stability and control. It’s already seen a debacle in the stockmarket on that front. The last thing it wants is uncontrolled upheaval in a much more significant market.
China might not want a currency war – but that’s what it’ll get
Presumably, the ideal for China is for the yuan to steadily decline, but at a rate that doesn’t scare the horses too much. And, for now, let’s assume that they can manage that – the truth is they probably can, but given their inexperience with ‘jawboning’, the move might not be smooth.
All else being equal, a weaker yuan means less deflation for China, but more for the rest of the world. That won’t help demand for commodities. And markets in countries that are seen to be relying on weaker currencies to buoy their economies – particularly Europe, but also Japan – have taken a hit too.
Trouble is, it’s not as straightforward as that.
For example, Japan has already responded – one adviser to prime minister Shinzo Abe came out and said that Japan could print more money to offset any devaluation in China. That’s got some analysts expecting even more quantitative easing from the Bank of Japan, which in turn gave stocks a boost this morning.
And this is probably the key point right now. None of these economies are operating in a vacuum. Japan has been virtually explicit about the fact that a weaker yen is key to its campaign to boost economic growth. Europe, meanwhile, has been less explicit – but a weaker euro is clearly a key policy aim of Mario Draghi, no matter how much he denies it.
Are these central banks going to roll over if China sends deflation their way? No. They’re going to retaliate by cranking up their own printing presses.
And what about the US Federal Reserve, the most important central bank of all? Is it really going to raise interest rates next month if the stronger US dollar is already effectively tightening monetary policy? And even if it raises them by a quarter point, how much further will it go?
China may not want to start a currency war – no one wants to do that, not explicitly. But if your goals for your domestic economy depend on your currency being weaker than that of your rival economies – well, a currency war is what you’re going to get.
In short, this all points to looser monetary policy across the globe, as central banks everywhere crank up the fight against each other and deflation.
To me, that means stick with the stockmarkets we’ve been recommending, including China. And hang on to gold as insurance – always a good idea when the monetary framework is looking wobbly.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Aug 13, 2015 22:31:21 GMT 7
Article talks about winners and losers on the stockmarkets. I already held BHP and RIO (AU versions) so bought some extra on the dips and sold the same extra out already for an opportunity on a little extra beer money as I like to trade ranges on these 2 and thought it was overdone. Also in the VDO they talk about Apple which I'll add some more tonight. ======================================================================== Here Are the Winners and Losers From China's Yuan Devaluationwww.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-11/more-losers-than-winners-in-china-devaluation-as-bmw-lvmh-slump
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Aug 14, 2015 9:34:01 GMT 7
It looks like the weakening is over... for the moment. Today's rate against the US dollar is up 0.05%.
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siampolee
Detective
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Post by siampolee on Aug 14, 2015 11:19:27 GMT 7
One is led to wonder what sort of pronouncements the other place resident financial genius MacWallet'' makes of all of this?
Does he perhaps think he hears the ''chink'' of money dropping to the ground?
Stand by for'' polished'' advice !!
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