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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2015 4:33:23 GMT 7
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2015 19:58:27 GMT 7
Informative thread.
Thank you.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Sept 14, 2015 21:54:48 GMT 7
Got to love the jingoism of those who believe in American Exceptionalism.
The Saudis havent lost anything, Uncle Sam will bow down to his master in the ME, hows the Boeing stock doing?
No more weapons of mass destruction to sell them they can use to put down a fledgling democaracy in places such as Bahrain or Yemen, never mind those "on the hill" will turn a blind eye to that.
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Post by realisedurgency on Sept 15, 2015 18:12:44 GMT 7
An interesting read I came across on Seeking Alpha, " Saudi Arabia Vs Shale - A Game of Chicken" Price of oil needed for OPEC nations for fiscal breakeven.  And price of oil needed for US shale producers to be profitable.  |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 15, 2015 20:19:43 GMT 7
An interesting read I came across on Seeking Alpha, " Saudi Arabia Vs Shale - A Game of Chicken" Price of oil needed for OPEC nations for fiscal breakeven. And price of oil needed for US shale producers to be profitable. Where it's more crucial for the Saudis is that they are dependent on oil income in a way that the US is not. The stakes are higher for them - and I read the other day that the production cost in the US is crashing. Squeaky bum time. |
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Post by Fletchsmile on Sept 22, 2015 10:58:11 GMT 7
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Post by realisedurgency on Oct 3, 2015 12:30:24 GMT 7
www.bakerhughes.com/rig-count==== Baker Hughes has issued the rotary rig counts as a service to the petroleum industry since 1944, when Hughes Tool Company began weekly counts of U.S. and Canadian drilling activity. Hughes initiated the monthly international rig count in 1975. The North American rig count is released weekly at noon central time on the last day of the work week. The international rig count is released on the fifth working day of each month. The Baker Hughes Rig Counts are an important business barometer for the drilling industry and its suppliers. When drilling rigs are active they consume products and services produced by the oil service industry. The active rig count acts as a leading indicator of demand for products used in drilling, completing, producing and processing hydrocarbons. Baker Hughes Rig Counts are published by major newspapers and trade publications, are referred to frequently by journalists, economists, security analysts and government officials, and are included in many industry statistical reports. Because they have been compiled consistently for 60 years, Baker Hughes Rig Counts also are useful in historical analysis of the industry. The working rig location information is provided in part by RigData. ==== 
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Post by Fletchsmile on Oct 12, 2015 11:38:07 GMT 7
Does like like oil may have bottomed. Can never be sure, but there looks more upside to downside to me if you're looking mid to longer term =================================================== Oil Extends Gains Near $50 a Barrel as OPEC Sees Demand GrowthNon-OPEC crude oil supply due to contract, OPEC chief says Global prices have bottomed, signs of 2016 recovery: Qatar Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Oil extended gains near $50 a barrel amid speculation an increase in demand will ease a global glut. Futures rose as much as 0.8 percent in New York after advancing 9 percent last week. Demand will grow and non-OPEC supply is due to contract, Abdalla Salem El-Badri, the secretary-general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said at a conference in Kuwait City on Sunday. Prices have bottomed and there are signs of a recovery in 2016, according to Qatar’s Energy Minister Mohammed Al Sada. Oil has fluctuated near $45 a barrel since slumping to a six-year low in August on speculation the crude surplus will persist. OPEC continues to pump above its collective production target while U.S. stockpiles remain about 100 million barrels above the five-year average. “Oil will probably do a little more work around $50,” Jonathan Barratt, the chief investment officer at Ayers Alliance Securities in Sydney, said by phone. “It’s an important level but I expect gains to be extended over the course of the next couple of weeks.” West Texas Intermediate for November delivery rose as much as 39 cents to $50.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $49.98 at 10:54 a.m. Singapore time. The contract gained 20 cents to close at $49.63 on Friday. The volume of all futures traded was about 20 percent above the 100-day average. Balanced Market Brent for November settlement was 26 cents higher at $52.91 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It lost 40 cents to $52.65 on Friday. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $2.93 to WTI. “At OPEC, we are hopeful that the industry will see a more balanced oil market in 2016,” El-Badri said. “We have recently seen a contraction in production from some non-OPEC producers and an uptick in demand growth.” The gap in oil supply and demand is due to close in the third quarter of 2016, Mohammad Ghazi Al-Mutairi, chief executive officer of state-run Kuwait National Petroleum Co., said at the conference. OPEC’s decision to keep its output target at 30 million barrels a day is the “ideal solution” to rebalance the market and support prices, Kuwait Oil Minister Ali Al-Omair said at the same event. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-11/oil-holds-gains-near-50-a-barrel-as-opec-sees-demand-growth |
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Post by Fletchsmile on Oct 14, 2015 12:26:59 GMT 7
It's a buyer's market for well run companies with strong balance sheets. Feels like we're at or near the bottom so couple of years out things could be looking good for today's buyers... =================================================================== Oil Slide Means `Almost Everything' for Sale as Deals AccelerateMore than $200 billion worth of oil and natural gas assets are for sale globally as companies come under renewed financial pressure from the prolonged commodity price rout, according to IHS Inc. There are about 400 buying opportunities as of September, IHS Chief Upstream Strategist Bob Fryklund said in an interview. Deals will accelerate later this year and into 2016 as companies sell assets to meet debt requirements, he said. West Texas Intermediate crude has averaged about $51 a barrel this year, more than 40 percent below the five-year mean. Low prices have slashed profits and as of the second quarter about one-sixth of North American major independent crude and gas producers faced debt payments that are more than 20 percent of their revenue. Companies have announced $181.1 billion of oil and gas acquisitions this year, the most in more than a decade, compared with $167.1 billion the same period in 2014, data compiled by Bloomberg show. “Basically almost everything is for sale,” Fryklund said Oct. 8 in Tokyo. “Low cycles are when a lot of these companies can rebalance their portfolios. In theory, this is when you upgrade your existing portfolio.” Companies with strong balance sheets are seeking buying opportunities, said Fryklund, citing Perth, Australia-based Woodside Petroleum Ltd.’s $8 billion offer for explorer Oil Search Ltd. and Suncor Energy Ltd.’s $3.3 billion bid for Canadian Oil Sands Ltd. Both targets rejected initial offers. As of August, one out of every eight junk-rated oil companies was in danger of defaulting, according to Moody’s Corp. WTI plunged below $40 a barrel in August, to the lowest price in six years. The grade added 0.3 percent to $46.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:36 a.m. in Tokyo. Next year the U.S. benchmark may trade around $55, said Fryklund. It will take several years for supply and demand to rebalance and prices may rise to about $70 a barrel by 2018, he said. “These down cycles are really great for defining the winners for the next cycles,” said Fryklund. “The ones that have cash right now, the ones that have good financials are seeing lots of opportunities.” www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-14/oil-fall-means-almost-everything-for-sale-as-deals-accelerate |
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Post by realisedurgency on Oct 14, 2015 12:49:47 GMT 7
From the FT. US oil production vs rig count. Production still rising despite falling rig count.  |
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Post by realisedurgency on Oct 22, 2015 18:40:29 GMT 7
mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKL8N12K2PG20151020============ Some analysts question whether the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is winning its price war against high-cost producers. They point to resilience in shale production in North Dakota and Texas as evidence that OPEC's strategy has had only limited success. But the correct comparison is with what would have happened if prices had remained at the pre-June 2014 level of over $100 per barrel and OPEC had cut its own production in a bid to support them. In that case, North Dakota production would probably have grown to over 1.5 million bpd by now and reached almost 1.7 million bpd by the end of 2015. By allowing prices to tumble, OPEC has shut in 300,000 to 500,000 bpd of probable shale production growth in North Dakota. ============
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Post by realisedurgency on Oct 22, 2015 18:44:17 GMT 7
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-21/saudis-risk-draining-financial-assets-in-five-years-imf-says=============== Saudi Arabia may run out of financial assets needed to support spending within five years if the government maintains current policies, the International Monetary Fund said, underscoring the need of measures to shore up public finances amid the drop in oil prices. [...] Saudi authorities are already planning spending cuts as the world’s biggest oil exporter seeks to cut its budget deficit. Officials have repeatedly said that the kingdom’s economy, the Arab world’s biggest, is strong enough to weather the plunge in crude prices as it did in similar crises, when its finances were under more strain. But the IMF said measures being considered by oil exporters “are likely to be inadequate to achieve the needed medium-term fiscal consolidation," the IMF said. “Under current policies, countries would run out of buffers in less than five years because of large fiscal deficits." [...] The IMF expects Saudi’s budget deficit to rise to more than 20 percent of gross domestic product this year after King Salman announced one-time bonuses for public-sector workers following his accession to the throne in January. The deficit is expected to be 19.4 percent in 2016. ===============
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Oct 23, 2015 8:44:32 GMT 7
Now remember the old adage? The first generation in a family makes money (goes from rags to riches); the second generation holds or keeps the money; and the third generation squanders or loses the money (and so goes back to rags).   |
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Post by Soutpeel on Oct 24, 2015 10:11:18 GMT 7
Now remember the old adage? The first generation in a family makes money (goes from rags to riches); the second generation holds or keeps the money; and the third generation squanders or loses the money (and so goes back to rags). Forgive my ignorance, but referencing the top photo...what is that on the left hand side next to that striking looking camel ?.....it looks like one of those "rat dogs" wrapped in blanket with string hanging out its arse |
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smokie36
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Post by smokie36 on Oct 24, 2015 10:57:37 GMT 7
^^^^ The state of Colarado is interesting, apparently they hold the water to 6 other states. If they dam the river and cut off the supplies states such as Kalifornia are toast. Who was the idiot the other week who was bringing in water from out of state to water his avacado farm, Magnum PI? A friend told me years ago, if you want an indicator of the oil world, check out house prices in Aberdeen. Rental prices are dropping substantially right now. |
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Jan 4, 2023 21:15:53 GMT 7
Jan 4, 2023 21:15:53 GMT 7
