AyG
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
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Post by AyG on Apr 8, 2016 14:38:48 GMT 7
Looks more like it's bouncing around the bottom at the moment to me. I don't see anything economically that would make me believe things will move up quickly from here for Russia. Too dependent upon commodities. And anyone would would buy something that behaved as this did in the latter half of 2008 (check the chart) has a much stronger stomach for this stuff than I.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jun 29, 2016 16:30:15 GMT 7
Interesting to watch how JPM Russia investment trust (JRS) has performed now its the UK and Europe's turn to be the basket cases RUB has appreciated around 10% or so vs GBP going from 95-ish to 86 -ish. The MICEX Russian index is down about 2% - 3% in sympathy. So netting the two off that explains most of the 7% gain in GBP terms for the IT since Brexit. Year to date JRS is up about 30% in GBP terms. One of the few investments I'd added to this year, so can't complain bigmango.boards.net/post/69858/threadWhile obviously a high risk investment in isolation and not something someone probably wants to put a high amount of their money into it does highlight the case for: 1)looking for value where a country or sector (and currency) has been beaten up 2)the benefits of diversification. While itself in isolation it's a high risk investment in a high risk country with high currency risk, as part of a wider portfolio it has actually helped reduce risk/ volatility of the total portfolio and (compared to say a UK/Europe equities only portfolio with underlying GBP/EUR only exposure) No doubt a bumpy ride too is still in store for Russia. But so far I've been happy with this Still pays a reasonable dividend too (Bberg shows 3.55%). Not as high as it was obviously due to price gains but still interesting compared to GBP cash if prepared to take some risk as part of a larger income yielding portfolio.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jul 1, 2019 17:47:49 GMT 7
I was looking at my portfolio and seeing what has done well/ not, and remembered these threads. JPM Russian Securities - JRS - has done very nicely this year: +33.6% in GBP terms, excluding dividends, so about 35% or so given the yield is 3.9% p.a. paid Semi-Annually. That's about double the MOEX/MICEX. Though helped by the fact GBP has lost over 10% vs RUB this year Since the last post on it about 3 years ago JRS' share price has just over doubled in 3 years. www.trustnet.com/factsheets/t/hx56/jp-morgan-russian-securities-plcStill trades at a discount -14.3%, which has narrowed a bit from an average of about 16.3% over the last 52 weeks I originally bought early 2015 after Russia equities had been badly beaten up and RUB had tanked. Not one for widows and orphans. Russia still has a lot of issues, but the key is looking at the value comared to those conditions, not just how bad Russia, it's economy, politics and RUB looked. Excluding the divs of around 4% or so a year: 2015: +8% 2016: +75% 2017: -4% 2018: -2% 2016 turned out to be a great year. 2018 wasn't that bad either, if divs are added in, would have been up around 2% while most of my investments were in negative territory last year. Still looks like it has potential to me. One of only a handful of EMs that interests me outside Asia. Oil price up over 20% this year is useful too given the importance of Russian Oil in any index. Would be nice to see that discount close, but that's anyone's guess if and when it narrows further or widens. Same old issue with ITs
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jul 16, 2019 19:47:19 GMT 7
Top Forecaster Says World’s Best Currency Rally Is Heading for a CrashBy Kira Zavyalova July 15, 2019 The analyst who most accurately predicted the ruble’s rally in the second quarter is now its most pessimistic forecaster. The Bank of Russia’s switch to monetary easing is the reason Jaroslaw Kosaty, a currency strategist at Poland’s largest bank, sees the currency sinking about 9% against the dollar by the end of the year. Foreign investors who piled into local OFZ bonds in anticipation of the cuts are largely done staking out their positions and the Bank of Russia says it expects the non-resident flows to fade, exposing the currency to further interest-rate reductions. The ruble's strength is about to fade, PKO Bank says “Fed rate cuts won’t be sufficient to satisfy market expectations in this matter,” Kosaty said. “The negative effects of the Russian central bank’s rate cuts on the ruble will prevail over the positive effects of the Fed actions.” After its 2018 collapse, the ruble staged the world’s best rebound this year and bond yields plummeted as tougher U.S. sanctions failed to materialize and a shift to policy globally fueled a rush into riskier markets. The return of foreign investors to Russian bonds lifted the non-resident share to 30% by the end of May from 24.4% as of Jan. 1. Kosaty predicts the most pain for the ruble out of 19 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. His forecast of 69 rubles per dollar compares with their median estimate of 65 and implies a 9.1% slide from the currency’s intraday high last week. The currency was 0.6% stronger at 62.63 as of 6:43 p.m. in Moscow on Monday, taking its gain in the year so far to 11.3%. Looming Threats A second consecutive interest-rate reduction is possible at the central bank’s next meeting and it isn’t ruling out a cut of 50 basis points, Governor Elvira Nabiullina said earlier this month. According to Kosaty, the Bank of Russia will lower rates gradually by 25 basis points in the third and fourth quarters, though a 50 basis-point step is still possible at the July 27 meeting. Read more: Traders Increase Russia Rate-Cut Bets After Dovish Signal: Chart There are other threats. Emerging market currencies may eventually take a hit from the U.S.-China trade war and fragility in the euro region, despite stimulus aimed at offsetting the fallout, he said. The possibility the Fed will be more cautious in its rate cuts would also remove support for developing-nation currencies. “The current economic situation in the U.S. is relatively strong when compared to others, and the Fed won’t easily refrain from maintaining favorable interest-rate parity with the other main economic partners,” Kosaty said. “Consequently, its actions in the coming quarters may seem belated to the market, which has a significant potential for market disappointment.” www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-14/top-ruble-forecaster-calls-time-on-world-s-best-currency-rally?in_source=watchlist_news_4
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