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Post by Soutpeel on Oct 1, 2015 13:51:55 GMT 7
Another factor work thinking about when considering gold is what currency(-ies) is(are) important to you and how you measure your money. For me I don't really care what my net worth is in USD. I always think THB or GBP as these are the currencies I have a natural use for and are important to me. For YTD gold has fallen by about 6% in USD terms, and that's the price movement many people think of. But at the same time THB has fallen vs USD by around 10%. Hence in THB terms gold is actually higher than start of the year. This is reflected in THB denominated mutual funds which we hold which are up about 3% this year after charges in THB terms. That's what's important to us as we live here, spend here and our net worth in THB terms is important. So with the Thai stock markets down -10% this year, it has been a nice to have a small bit of diversification that's up +3% Worth a thought or two what's important to you All good perespectives....i get paid in USD and the only two other currencies i have any interest in in practical terms which are the THB and the ZAR so the falls in both currencies against the USD has been very welcome but one suspects this will not last forever, hence the reason i was thinking of getting my fingers burned dabbling in physical gold as if somebody else stated it could go to sub USD 1k i would defintiely throwing something in .... Platinum also interests me as well any thoughts ?
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Post by Fletchsmile on Oct 1, 2015 15:26:35 GMT 7
Platinum? Same concept for me. Similar concept to holding silver and gold ETFs for me. I find the platinum price more puzzling than gold at the moment. It's a precious metal in addition to having industrial uses, rarer and so traditionally more expensive than gold, but for now trading below gold. With this in mind in theory to me should represent better value than gold, but when it comes to all these metals it seems sentiment is often more important.
So all of gold, silver and platinum I have some exposure via exchange traded funds bought online thru my Singapore bank/broker in USD. Just for a bit of diversification in assets.
For gold we have a little added exposure of having bought mutual funds in Thailand (which feed into ETFs overseas). Just bought from Thailand as it was convenient to do so. Plus one is also a Thai retirement mutual fund (RMF) so I got tax relief.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Oct 2, 2015 9:28:06 GMT 7
When it comes to timing of buy and sell one approach is technical analysis. Not really my style and am not a fan of it myself TBH, but if enough people believe something it can become self fulfilling. So I do look at it The site below is quite useful for this. If you click on the link and then click where it says on the tab "technical analysis" it will show all sorts of buys/ sells. You can set time horizons. At the moment for XAU vs USD on daily it shows "strong sell" for gold. This is based on moving average sand other indicators www.investing.com/currencies/xau-usd-technical?period=86400Quite a nice website for free. you can also set up your own portfolios to track. So you can use it for currencies, stocks and shares, metals, e.g gold XAU, silver XAG, platinum. If you do that and then register they actually email you a technical overview summary once a week for half a dozen measures: main currencies, gold, S&P etc. Take it with a pinch of salt, but it's another thing to look at TBH someone doesn't need to get into all the ins and outs and can use it for a quick look, strong sell, buy etc...
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Oct 2, 2015 14:37:57 GMT 7
When it comes to timing of buy and sell one approach is technical analysis... if enough people believe something it can become self fulfilling. I have always found reading the tea leaves in my morning cuppa to be a more reliable source of prognostication than technical analysis. Sadly, since the rise of the teabag, the number of tasseographers has fallen, and we currently lack the critical mass that our market predictions materialise. Still more accurate than charting, though.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Oct 3, 2015 17:53:05 GMT 7
Email in my inbox today. Some reasonable thoughts and perspectives on gold ================================================== Are Precious Metals a Safe Haven?
Fellow Investor,
For a while on the Street, healthcare has been king. Of the 10 sectors that comprise the S&P 500, healthcare is one of only two with a positive total return this year so far-transcending the market routs while sectors like energy flounder helplessly. Biotech in particular has had an exceptional run in recent years: the S&P 500 biotechnology select industry index shot up over 400% between July of 2010 and July of this year. Biotech companies were richly valued, but the healthcare sector as a whole seemed to live up to its reputation as a safe haven-a buffer against the wider market turbulence amid fears of a weak global economy and the Fed tightening interest rates.
Last week, that bubble exploded and the biotech index plunged, currently hovering around 20% below its July peak. The concerns that pulled biotech down from its lofty levels-conflict over drug pricing, reimbursement from insurance companies, etc.-have leaked into the broader healthcare category, and now, with no clear leaders as we wrap up the third quarter, many investors are looking for another "safe haven" sector as the market settles back into a comfortable groove. I recently received a question from one of my subscribers on whether precious metals could be that haven, so I'd like to take some time to lay out my thoughts on the sector.
To be frank, I'm wondering if we've seen the top on the "safe haven" story here. Spot gold only jumped 9% from its post-Greece bottom and is now back to bumping around levels we haven't seen in years. Silver is in roughly the same shape. This tells me that even in the worst global market meltdown since 2011, underlying demand for bullion isn't enough to take us back above $1,200 an ounce, much less the near-$2,000 peak we saw in that summer of the Treasury downgrade.
Like a lot of you, I personally like at least a small allocation to precious metals as a hedge, but it takes a lot of disaster to turn that hedge into a real money-making proposition. Gold, in the long term, looks as if it might be dead money. Unless you buy into a speculative wave, it's a great reservoir of value, but it doesn't generate a lot of wealth on its own-unless, once again, you can sell it into a speculative wave. Right now I'm not seeing a lot of speculators. Demand from China seems to have crashed for the time being. It looks like those investors are either stuck in Shanghai stocks or buying dollar assets instead of bullion-which beckons assets out of funds like GLD, which has seen about 65% of its net asset value evaporate over the last four years.
Other emerging markets are not in any position to buy a lot of gold. The demand just isn't there. If anything, we could see a little dumping as the currency wars pick up speed.
And speaking of currency, the dollar is another problem here for gold. As you know, precious metals are a natural inflation hedge, but with deflation creeping around other parts of the world and the Fed eager to actively strengthen our currency, trading dollars for bullion doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Look at "commodity currencies" like the South African rand, which is often considered a pure play on gold but has crashed 15% against the dollar in just the last three months. As the Fed moves toward tightening and other central banks print money, the math only gets worse.
Other commodities are a different story. A few of you have asked about everything from uranium to specific mining companies. Uranium is interesting because Japan is buying nuclear power plant fuel again. Likewise, copper, aluminum and other industrial metals have been so deeply discounted over China fears that I think they could finally get a bid again, even if China remains chilly.
Keep in mind too that miners are offering some unusually high dividend yields right now. I'm not recommending any quite yet, but it's worth keeping an eye on companies that literally dig wealth out of the ground and pay the equivalent of 7%-8% per year in dividends.
In the end, a little gold (maybe 5% of a portfolio) could make a solid short-term hedge while the markets tumble erratically. Gold is ultra-defensive, so it's unlikely to lose a lot of value at this point. By the same token, it's unlikely to make a lot of money either, serving more as a useful reservoir of liquidity while we wait for leadership to emerge in stocks.
Sincerely,
Signed- Hilary Kramer Hilary Kramer
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Post by Soutpeel on Oct 3, 2015 19:06:58 GMT 7
Uranium is a dead duck...know a few people who sunk quite large amounts of money into Uranium on the prospect of the re-emergence of commerical nuclear power world wide...which tanked after what happened in Japan and the people concerned just about lost their shirts on those investments, what article does show with the comment " Japan is buying fuel rods" is that the author doesnt understand the nuclear business...there are stock piles of fuel rods all over the world which doesnt require the mining of new uranium to msnufacture fuel rods
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2015 23:24:16 GMT 7
There's stock piles of loads of products, hence Glencore's problems. I'm toying with buying into Glencore, I'll wait and see what this week brings - if you were to nail me to the ground ( I know you'd love to ) - I'd be buying Lloyds bank shares ( more to the point, I am buying Lloyds shares ). I'll let you do your own research - Gold? not a chance. I predicted that the price would crash to $1250 per ounce by Jan 1 2015 - a prediction made around 30 Dec 2011 when the lemmings were listening to the bull drivel. Man, it was a joke - and a couple of "worthy," members at the other place made a complete ass of themselves. I hear that the average production cost is $720 per ounce, so $900 would be a realistic price. Anything above that is sentiment. www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/218064-where-is-gold-going-in-this-market/page-242#entry4925321
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2015 23:34:15 GMT 7
^^ read the comments after my prediction - "theblether your prediction is based on nothing more than wishful thinking and pixie dust." Who's the dickhead now, huh?
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Post by Fletchsmile on Oct 12, 2015 16:50:59 GMT 7
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Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2015 19:09:16 GMT 7
Excepting the outbreak of nuclear war - it's going below $1000.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2015 19:25:23 GMT 7
Who's the dickhead now, huh? If you choose to participate in this thread, please limit your comments to the OP and subject matter. Conduct yourself in a civil manner or you will not conduct yourself here. It is a financial thread. First warning.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Oct 12, 2015 21:20:01 GMT 7
Who's the dickhead now, huh? If you choose to participate in this thread, please limit your comments to the OP and subject matter. Conduct yourself in a civil manner or you will not conduct yourself here. It is a financial thread. First warning. I think our TB was referring to someone else on another forum which it was linked to I think it was relevant - although there's 400+ pages of waffle on that thread so the jury's probably out and gone somewhere else rather than read through all the case material
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Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2015 21:36:10 GMT 7
If you choose to participate in this thread, please limit your comments to the OP and subject matter. Conduct yourself in a civil manner or you will not conduct yourself here. It is a financial thread. First warning. I think our TB was referring to someone else on another forum which it was linked to I think it was relevant - although there's 400+ pages of waffle on that thread so the jury's probably out and gone somewhere else rather than read through all the case material Yip. Kicked on the ass for nothing. Sniff.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Oct 12, 2015 21:57:30 GMT 7
I think our TB was referring to someone else on another forum which it was linked to I think it was relevant - although there's 400+ pages of waffle on that thread so the jury's probably out and gone somewhere else rather than read through all the case material Yip. Kicked on the ass for nothing. Sniff. You lucky barsteward, at certain gentlemens clubs I frequent, one usually has to pay for the privilege, and give a hefty tip.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2015 22:11:53 GMT 7
Yip. Kicked on the ass for nothing. Sniff. You lucky barsteward, at certain gentlemens clubs I frequent, one usually has to pay for the privilege, and give a hefty tip. Yup - those Japanese clubs are a bit mad. Man, what a weekend I've had on here - assaulted by the Bangkok Butterfly, sideswiped by the Witch of the East, and denigrated by the James Bond Society ( Ancient Fantasist Division ). Then shot by Shado. Good job I've got a thick skin.
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