AyG
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Post by AyG on Dec 8, 2015 12:18:43 GMT 7
It looks like 2015 is going to turn out to be my worst yet for investment performance. I've just looked at the YTD return figures for each of my investments, and it's pretty grim. Most of my investments are around +/- 2%, so pretty flat. However, there are some outliers.
The sole sparks of joy come from Independent Investment Trust (IIT), which is up 25%, and the even more heartening JP Morgan European Smaller Companies (JESC), up 29%.
However, there's a lot more gloom. Unsurprisingly, energy and natural resources are heavily down - most around 30% down. A relative bright spot is BlackRock Gold & General, down a mere 17%.
Asia has been pretty mixed. Aberdeen New Thai (ANW) down 15%, and Aberdeen Asian Smaller Companies (AAS) down a similar amount. However, Pacific Assets (PAC) and First State Asia Pacific Leaders are both flat.
All I can do now is pray to His Noodliness for a Santa Rally.
I hope all of you have done rather better.
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scooter
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Post by scooter on Dec 8, 2015 14:49:50 GMT 7
Yeah - I did better. I kept away from the SE - heh heh! But I agree - 2015 has seen a downward trend in almost everything, especially in the second half of the year. The first half wasn't too bad - the first quarter was even better, but it was easy to see how things were going quite early in the year. I was lucky and managed to stow a few 'pennies' in some good accounts, about 5 minutes before the deadline came. After that, the rates fell very quickly - and these last coupla months I ain't been too bothered about what's on offer - as there ain't really anything worth getting hot around the collar about. There's a time fer saving and a time fer spending - I'm now in the latter phase, choosing to spend any dividends on home comforts and shit. Hell, it's far more satisfying than racing around to find something that's only gonna give you 1.00 to 2.00%. Things might get better when the latest government projects kick in - but I sure as hell ain't holding my breath on that one. Too, there's the implications of a possible Fed rate hike - but I'll sit back and wait for that to happen, first. Reckon 2016 will eventually see a slight upward trend - just a personal gut feeling, nothing I can put my finger on. Hope your year turns out to be a better one! Happy investing
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Post by Fletchsmile on Dec 10, 2015 12:47:42 GMT 7
I like to play to the final whistle or when the fat lady sings, so it's a bit early for me to do my final analysis yet That said, it looks like it's going to be a poor year for me. Probably flat or even slightly down depending on what happens in next couple of weeks. Either way unless some big surprises it will have been a poor year. That's the way it goes sometimes though. Last year was an OK one, and it's the averages over long terms that count for me.UK Smaller Companies, Europe, Russia have all showed nice gains. Neil Wood put in a solid return too as usual for UK income.Poor have been Asia and Emerging markets ETFs. These I hold as "low cost" choices via Singapore. Fortunately not large exposures, as the larger exposures are in active funds that have done better. Or should I say small losses It really re-affirms my view that low cost is OK for convenience, but if you spend the time and research you can do much better, even if you pay a little moreWorst has been resource based funds. Fortunately they're again now small holdings (less than 2 or 3%) in specialist funds, as I'd already significant cut holdings.Overall more winners than losers.The thing that brings me down most though is Thailand I've a large weighting - usually 35% to 40% concentrated in Thai equities that I hold year after year. Since GFC in 2008, they'd made nice profits for 6 straight years running. Unfortunately this is unlucky number 7. They're down ball park 10%-ish this year. Can't exactly grumble though after 6 years of decent profits, up around 60% over 5 years and 200%+ over 10. If someone's investing in equities they need to accept prices fall as well as rise, and Thailand can be unexpected and difficult to call, which is generally why I don't try to call it on long term investing.On the other hand SET options trading, where I do make calls and take views, has been a very nice bright spot again. I put some safety trades in place yesterday so that come what may I'll have returned at least +40%. A nice return in a falling Thai market. If it holds around current levels that should be more like +60% profit. Could have been much brighter still except for the last 2 week's falls
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Dec 10, 2015 13:26:44 GMT 7
The thing that brings me down most though is Thailand... They're down ball park 10%-ish this year.
I presume that's accounting in THB. The SET is down 13.4%. If however, you account in GBP (as I do), it's down 18.9%. Against USD it's even worse - down 20.6%.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Dec 10, 2015 17:18:44 GMT 7
The thing that brings me down most though is Thailand... They're down ball park 10%-ish this year.
I presume that's accounting in THB. The SET is down 13.4%. If however, you account in GBP (as I do), it's down 18.9%. Against USD it's even worse - down 20.6%. I look at currencies in a lot of different ways. But yes basically when it comes to Thai equities I've very little interest in how they've performed in GBP terms and absolutely no interest how they've performed in USD terms (except maybe as a tool sometimes to compare vs other investments in different currencies). I do monitor net worth overall in different currencies though, and mentally across different levels of assets. The whole point of THB equity assets is to hedge against my THB liabilities and meet THB expenditures. eg I've several million THB left to pay in school fees (liabilities) over the next 10 years or so, which increase by about 4% p.a., before payments made, and without counting other THB expenses. Over the last year they've decreased by about 5% in GBP terms so cost less in GBP terms. But it doesn't mean much to say I owe GBP X thousand less in GBP terms for Thai school fees I'd never pay if in the UK. Similarly I'd have a 9% FX gain if revaluing these into USD, but that's even more pointless for me to do so. The only way I'm going to offset THB school fees over 10 - 15 years that grow at 4% p.a with some form of currency hedge is with a THB asset class that has potential to grow at at least the same rate. Hence the large exposure to Thai equities. By the same token if I consider the THB equity funds I hold, depending on when acquired (going back to 1990's) I've gains worth 10% - 25% on them in the strengthening of THB vs GBP to add on if I wanted to convert back to GBP. So the odd FX movement up and down each year again doesn't mean much to me. I am interested in the long term appreciation (for me) of THB vs GBP as a trend but don't bother converting these long term gains on individual investments at different points in time back to GBP terms. The GBP or THB asset allocation at overall level though is a strategic overall decision. Another element to consider in addition to assets and liabilities is funding. Generally they're also funded out of THB earnings Also I don't adjust for the 35% to 37% tax relief I've received on LTFs or RMFs, on indvidual investments, though I do some checks at overall level On the other hand there'll also by FX impacts elsewhere, eg Standard Life UK Smaller Companies was up about about +24.7% to end of November. I don't bother adding on another 5% in THB terms at individual investment level, and just leave it in GBP terms. The intention is to keep that money in the UK. I should add I do other stuff around in currencies for measurement, but not necessarily at individual investment level, more at net worth/ aggregate levels.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Dec 10, 2015 17:58:25 GMT 7
Geez that was long winded Short answer. No I'm not really interested in Thai equities performance in GBP terms, that's not the intention of holding them. Definitely not Thai equities in USD terms.
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Dec 10, 2015 18:00:51 GMT 7
Short answer. No I'm not really interested in Thai equities performance in GBP terms, and definitely not in USD terms . So do you monitor your other investments in THB? Or do you consider them totally separately and monitor in GBP?
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Post by Fletchsmile on Dec 10, 2015 18:09:54 GMT 7
Short answer. No I'm not really interested in Thai equities performance in GBP terms, and definitely not in USD terms . So do you monitor your other investments in THB? Or do you consider them totally separately and monitor in GBP? Broadly at individual investment level I monitor them in base currency. Then at portfolio level I convert to both GBP equivalent and THB equivalent. I also track the currency pairs separately (which is why I can usually cut and paste excel graphs going back around 15 years or so) Generalising further I do separate them to an extent similar to what you say: I'm most interested in money I have in the UK and it's worth in GBP, while money in Thailand it's its worth in THB that counts. Though at aggregate level I do conversions to both Then I also need to include cash and other assets. So overall this year everything thrown together, I'm up slightly in THB terms, but down slightly in GBP terms. So as you say a year to forget really {BTW Much easier looking at my mum and brother's portfolios. They're UK based and up slightly in UK terms as they simple non-expat lives and that's all that matters }
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Post by Fletchsmile on Dec 10, 2015 18:31:48 GMT 7
Short answer. No I'm not really interested in Thai equities performance in GBP terms, and definitely not in USD terms . So do you monitor your other investments in THB? Or do you consider them totally separately and monitor in GBP? I guess as you keep most of your money offshore then it's simpler to just monitor in GBP and then convert to THB for total worth? Do you think that'll ever change? Settling here for longer term and the thought I might not go back; and then adding Thai dependents were the two main reasons I changed
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Dec 10, 2015 18:37:31 GMT 7
So do you monitor your other investments in THB? Or do you consider them totally separately and monitor in GBP? I guess as you keep most of your money offshore then it's simpler to just monitor in GBP and then convert to THB for total worth? Do you think that'll ever change? Settling here for longer term and the thought I might not go back; and then adding dependents were the two main reasons I changed I only hold two non-GBP denominated investments, one in THB held onshore, and one in USD. It's much simpler for me to monitor in GBP. In fact, only recently have I started converting the grand total into THB. I was prompted by a period when the value in GBP actually fell, and converting to THB managed to cheer me up since the THB value had actually risen. I don't think I'll ever change. I'm not ever going to invest more than a few million directly in Thailand.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Dec 10, 2015 20:38:14 GMT 7
I guess as you keep most of your money offshore then it's simpler to just monitor in GBP and then convert to THB for total worth? Do you think that'll ever change? Settling here for longer term and the thought I might not go back; and then adding dependents were the two main reasons I changed I only hold two non-GBP denominated investments, one in THB held onshore, and one in USD. It's much simpler for me to monitor in GBP. In fact, only recently have I started converting the grand total into THB. I was prompted by a period when the value in GBP actually fell, and converting to THB managed to cheer me up since the THB value had actually risen. I don't think I'll ever change. I'm not ever going to invest more than a few million directly in Thailand. In my pre-Thailand days I used to also convert things to IDR, that would always cheer me up. Billionaire+ I did think about whether it would be somewhere I could settle and used to visit quite a lot. But chose Thailand instead.
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Dec 13, 2015 11:44:31 GMT 7
I'm beginning to think that my parents lied to me and Santa doesn't really exist.
On Friday FTSE closes below 6,000, down 2.2%. S&P 500 down 1.9%. SET down 1.3%.
Back in March the FTSE broke through 7,000 for the first time. Now it's back to where it was in 1998.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Dec 13, 2015 21:50:37 GMT 7
I'm beginning to think that my parents lied to me and Santa doesn't really exist. On Friday FTSE closes below 6,000, down 2.2%. S&P 500 down 1.9%. SET down 1.3%. Back in March the FTSE broke through 7,000 for the first time. Now it's back to where it was in 1998. FTSE 30-Dec-1999 was 6930 now as of 13 Dec 2015 it's 5952 that's down 14%. Worse still that's in GBP terms. GBP has also depreciated by about 9% vs THB over that period... so FTSE is down over 20% in THB terms
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Post by Fletchsmile on Dec 13, 2015 21:55:41 GMT 7
I'm beginning to think that my parents lied to me and Santa doesn't really exist. On Friday FTSE closes below 6,000, down 2.2%. S&P 500 down 1.9%. SET down 1.3%. Back in March the FTSE broke through 7,000 for the first time. Now it's back to where it was in 1998. Perhaps Santa just retired to Thailand with his mia noi: The SET index is up around 165% over since 30 Dec 1999... .....and that's of course in THB terms. In GBP terms it's worth nearly 3 times what it was back then
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Post by Fletchsmile on Dec 29, 2015 22:41:00 GMT 7
I like to play to the final whistle or when the fat lady sings, so it's a bit early for me to do my final analysis yet That said, it looks like it's going to be a poor year for me. Probably flat or even slightly down depending on what happens in next couple of weeks. Either way unless some big surprises it will have been a poor year. That's the way it goes sometimes though. Last year was an OK one, and it's the averages over long terms that count for me....... On the other hand SET options trading, where I do make calls and take views, has been a very nice bright spot again. I put some safety trades in place yesterday so that come what may I'll have returned at least +40%. A nice return in a falling Thai market. If it holds around current levels that should be more like +60% profit. Could have been much brighter still except for the last 2 week's falls Finally totted up the SET options trading for the year, as December 2015's futures and options contracts closed today. Result up +50.4% for the year on SET50 trading. Can't grumble overall for the year, given the SET 50 is down around -19% but still have a feeling of being robbed Virtually all the profit was made in the first 2 quarters. 3rd quarter was flat/ a small profit, and the 4th quarter was actually a small loss - that's my first quarterly loss in over 3 years. Not bad really as it was about -3% vs over -6% on the quarter for the index. But still a loss which was annoying Unfortunately SET and SET50 didn't hold around the levels mentioned. The 4G auctions helped contribute to hammering the indices and confidence in the market generally dipped just at the wrong time for me, with no real year-end rally on people buying LTFs/ RMFs either I wasn't expecting the 4G bidding to turn out like that, and so expensive, so it caught me a little, and my expectations were wrong for the last couple of weeks. I was glad I'd put in the safety trades though to limit downside for the quarter, and more importantly ensure a profit for the year though. Still leaves a feeling of what could have been. Was on track for a record year, but then it turned out a game of two halves
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