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Post by Fletchsmile on Mar 24, 2016 16:43:41 GMT 7
Some thoughts and stats on where the pound may be heading. The quote below jumped out... 55% chance of hitting it's lowest level since 1985 Pound's $16 Billion of Option Trades Envisage Drop to 1980s LowsBets placed on drop roughly equal to size of Iceland's economy Three-month volatility options now span the referendum day As Britain ponders its future in the European Union, investors are betting an amount almost the size of Iceland’s economy on the pound falling to levels last seen in the 1980s. At least 11 billion pounds ($15.5 billion) has been wagered this year on options that would profit if sterling fell to or below $1.3502, about a 4 percent drop from current levels, after the June 23 referendum, data compiled by Bloomberg show. More than half of the positions were placed since the date of the vote was set on Feb. 20. contd. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-23/pound-s-16-billion-of-option-trades-envisage-drop-to-1980s-lows |
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Post by Fletchsmile on Mar 24, 2016 16:49:38 GMT 7
This one would be very bad news for Brits in Thailand funded themselves or holidaying with GBP only income if the scenario happened.
If say USD/THB remains about 35-ish and GBP/USD does hit a messy scenario at 1.15 then the GBP/THB rate would be back to around 40 !!!! in this guy's view
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 24, 2016 19:40:42 GMT 7
I posted about a month ago that I thought that 49 was the lowest the baht would go, so far, so good.
That was based not believing that Brexit would win - and I'm astonished that it's now a strong possibility.
In the event of a Brexit win, or several polls indicating that they will win by a margin, the markets will recalibrate as they always do. I can see the second half of the year bringing carnage - and while I think 40 is low, I think 43 - 45 is on the cards.
If it goes to 40 for any length of time, and to be honest, it doesn't even need to be that low, it will cause serious financial distress to many people. Many Thai pensioner Brexit turkeys will end up voting for christmas.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Mar 24, 2016 21:13:06 GMT 7
I have posted on here and elsewhere many a time, anything over 40 is a bonus, thats from one who has seen it as low as 36 and 38.
Its the Johnny Come lately two week millionaires Bobs Yer Uncle types that will suffer, the same idiots who should have stayed in Benidorm, at least they have free healthcare and their pension isnt frozen.
For those reading, Thailand, was not, is not and never will be a cheap place to retire to.
Dont know why I bother typing or wasting my time, there is always some mug who knows better, never mind the fact he cant string a sentence together in Thai or even write his name.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Mar 24, 2016 21:14:41 GMT 7
This one would be very bad news for Brits in Thailand funded themselves or holidaying with GBP only income if the scenario happened. If say USD/THB remains about 35-ish and GBP/USD does hit a messy scenario at 1.15 then the GBP/THB rate would be back to around 40 !!!! in this guy's view Great stuff, bring it on, have posted before, my next UK house is getting cheaper by the day. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 24, 2016 21:36:52 GMT 7
I have posted on here and elsewhere many a time, anything over 40 is a bonus, thats from one who has seen it as low as 36 and 38. Its the Johnny Come lately two week millionaires Bobs Yer Uncle types that will suffer, the same idiots who should have stayed in Benidorm, at least they have free healthcare and their pension isnt frozen. For those reading, Thailand, was not, is not and never will be a cheap place to retire to. Dont know why I bother typing or wasting my time, there is always some mug who knows better, never mind the fact he cant string a sentence together in Thai or even write his name. That's true - way too many people that shouldn't be in the country. Idiots that can't speak Thai after ten years and break visa regulations year after year, then go online complaining about illegal immigration to the UK. It's about time the Thai authorities brought in a language qualification for retirement to the country. If you can't speak basic Thai after five years retirement, see ya! That would force a lot of these morons into having to put the effort in, and it it would be a good thing for them in the end, as they wouldn't feel as isolated in Thailand. On the downside, they'd end up understanding how hated they really are. Anyway, I'm not bothered, my Thai investments are producing enough for me to live on if I choose to stay there ( never ). Broad basket investments can handle many individual crisis. |
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Post by rgs2001uk on Mar 24, 2016 21:49:05 GMT 7
^^^^ The sad reality for many even if they dont know it, their wife doesnt want them learning Thai, they are led from their Golden Cage (farang macmansion) to Big C or Tesco/Lotus once a month for the monthly shopping and ATM visit. Their rent a wife from Pattaya despises farangs that can speak Thai, and doesnt want their husbands anywhere near us, we might explain the real costs etc etc. Even better,  , these idiots look down their long farang nose at us who can speak Thai and accuse us of going native. The very same farangs who vent their spleen and spew their bile about effin immigrants who refuse to learn Engerlish in the UK. If it wasnt so laughable it would be pathetic, in actual fact, pathetic just about sums up these tossers. |
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siampolee
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Alive alive O
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Post by siampolee on Mar 24, 2016 22:01:39 GMT 7
blether you don't live here you dislike the place you speak fluent Thai of course don't you. It is amazing that you are an expert on all things Thai.Many of the''morons'' you look down upon have lived here for many years , many of them like me have even bred childredn from the local female stock too, Many of those''morons'' do not rely on income from elsewhere as they too have investment portfolios not connected to Thailand.
Your constant whinging about the country and your boasting of your ''investments here in some soapy shop'' are really like you. ''Bloody boring and tedious''
The whole affair is nothing to do with you, It's all about mind over matter.
Personally I don't mind how things go here so your comments in reality don't matter.
Consider perhaps how hated you are as opposed to the ''morons'' you identify and categorize in your own mind.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Mar 24, 2016 22:32:39 GMT 7
As one who lives in Thailand, I am voting for a BrExit, let the pikeys pay for it themselves.
Those arrogant effing French farmers, wine lakes and butter mountains, never mind the olive grower scams and lazy Greeks.
Too be perfectly honest I feel sorry for my German friends, who will be left to pick up the tab for the workshy.
Ben upcountry (German) if you are reading this, you are a good man, we have more in common than The Socialist Party of Northern Europe would have us realise.
Moved half way round the world to meet up with fellow travellers, as for the effin PC leftie brigade, please stop shoving this German apologist BS down our throat
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Post by Deleted on Mar 24, 2016 22:45:38 GMT 7
As one who lives in Thailand, I am voting for a BrExit, let the pikeys pay for it themselves. Those arrogant effing French farmers, wine lakes and butter mountains, never mind the olive grower scams and lazy Greeks. Too be perfectly honest I feel sorry for my German friends, who will be left to pick up the tab for the workshy. Ben upcountry (German) if you are reading this, you are a good man, we have more in common than The Socialist Party of Northern Europe would have us realise. Moved half way round the world to meet up with fellow travellers, as for the effin PC leftie brigade, please stop shoving this German apologist BS down our throat I'm voting stay as the Common Market/EU has been successful in it's primary goal - no war in Europe. I can't be bothered will all the drivel about Yugoslavia and Ukraine, these countries were not part of the EU. The children of the Greatest Generation were the first to benefit from peace in Europe between the three major western powers. They are also the first to forget the horrors of war. Oh, they'll wrap themselves in the flag of patriotism and look on solemnly at the various war commemorations. They'll rush out the door to buy a poppy and go mad when others reject the symbolism. Then they'll vote us out of the mechanism that ensured no further war in Europe. And I consider that to be be shameful. |
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Post by rgs2001uk on Mar 24, 2016 23:06:02 GMT 7
I am not European, I dont share their socialist values.
I dont care for the European Court of Human Rights, I support the death penalty.
I really dont care about Europe, too be honest I dont know or understand how we were ever dragged into it in the first place.
European problem, let them sort it out, some ArchDuke gets shot in Serbia, not my problem.
40 years later, Hitler annexes the Sudetenland, see previous war for details.
20 plus million lose their lives, at the end of which, Poland is still occupied.
Eisenhower was correct with his Miltitary Indusrtrial Complex, from 1945-1990, no wars in Europe.
Post the, tear down this wall Mr Gorbachev, Georgia, Ukraine, Chechnya (not my backyard) and I sure as heck dont need Star Wars in my backyard.
There is a guy about to be sentenced in the Hauge today, in some other times or countries he would be seen and hailed as a freedom fighter, patriot and national hero.
The PC leftie brigade dont allow us to think such thoughts, so we suffer in silence.
As for Europe, has Herr Sturgeon been on an economics course latley?
Or is she quite happy to drag the Jocks in to Euro LaLa land to satisfy her own personal ego.
Great stuff they will be lighting bonfires in Coatbridge tonight, free Bucky in the free state, at someone elses expense as usual.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Mar 24, 2016 23:26:15 GMT 7
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Post by rgs2001uk on Mar 24, 2016 23:30:27 GMT 7
You really cant make this shit up, The One Eyed Clown is very good with someone elses money, isnt he the same clown who sold off our gold resereves. capx.co/now-gordon-brown-wants-uk-taxpayers-to-bail-out-big-oil/Aye comrade come the revoulution it will be the likes of you first up against the wall. A effin hypocrite champagne socialist. |
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smokie36
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Post by smokie36 on Mar 25, 2016 1:58:24 GMT 7
You really cant make this shit up, The One Eyed Clown is very good with someone elses money, isnt he the same clown who sold off our gold resereves. capx.co/now-gordon-brown-wants-uk-taxpayers-to-bail-out-big-oil/Aye comrade come the revoulution it will be the likes of you first up against the wall. A effin hypocrite champagne socialist. My father was at school with Gordon Brown...they attended the local grammar....where the teaching was very much on the superior side of anything else. Simply having been there was an open door back in those days to a better career. If you went to the crap school you had better bring your hod to the interview sonny. Just a snapshot into his teenage years....and bear in mind he came from one of the posh villages as well...silver spoon that lad from birth. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 25, 2016 6:06:19 GMT 7
This one would be very bad news for Brits in Thailand funded themselves or holidaying with GBP only income if the scenario happened. If say USD/THB remains about 35-ish and GBP/USD does hit a messy scenario at 1.15 then the GBP/THB rate would be back to around 40 !!!! in this guy's view Great stuff, bring it on, have posted before, my next UK house is getting cheaper by the day. It's not in Jaywick is it? Been watching a program the last 2 weeks, I've seen some shitty areas full of scrotes but this is on another level. If you can get UK channel 5 online watch it, I have pets with more brains than its residents. www.radiotimes.com/programme/dpg74f/benefits-by-the-sea-jaywick |
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, these idiots look down their long farang nose at us who can speak Thai and accuse us of going native.
