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Post by Fletchsmile on Mar 25, 2016 10:34:51 GMT 7
This one would be very bad news for Brits in Thailand funded themselves or holidaying with GBP only income if the scenario happened. If say USD/THB remains about 35-ish and GBP/USD does hit a messy scenario at 1.15 then the GBP/THB rate would be back to around 40 !!!! in this guy's view Great stuff, bring it on, have posted before, my next UK house is getting cheaper by the day. Since I started staying in Thailand seriously, like you I've always looked at what impact exchange rates would have on me being here. 2 of the key things I do and would suggest most people consider if they don't already are: 1) Build THB assets and THB income streams. For me as I often say, the more important question is can you afford not to invest in Thailand? than the mantra of don't invest any money in Thailand blah blah blah that we hear from some of the expat "experts" 2) I regularly look at how I'd be if the exchange rates were at certain values. I used to use a spreadsheet at least twice a year with values between GBP/THB 25 to GBP 75 and see how it would affect me, then act on it. That's where the first point came from and a conclusion I reached years back of building THB assets and income to protect me, otherwise I might have issues. These days I don't see much chance of 70 to the pound again, and only bother with between 25 to 60, as anyway above 70 wouldn't cause be problems. The other side of the coin as you say though is what you could buy / do in the UK with your Thai assets and income if it does go to 40. For our family it could be a positive factor to move back to UK. Sell some Thai assets, convert to GBP, move there and put the kids thru free UK schooling. Still a downside on UK tax and the idiots p**ing away your money, but the exchange rate would nicely compensate for the tax if that happened.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Mar 25, 2016 10:44:17 GMT 7
Luckily being in Thailand Brexit or not probably wouldn't affect me much, in the same way I try and put myself in a position so all the other mistakes the governments make don't affect me much. You simply can't rely on governments to get things right on your behalf. It's up to you.
Don't think I'll bother finding out how to vote. My voice counts for little, plus might as well leave it to the people that will be affected to choose.
My overall feeling is that the European project has gone too far, and given up too much control, with too many ludicrous bureaucrats. We'd enough bureaucrats and idiots in government in the UK to start with, without adding another layer of them.
I also think the whole issue is overrated. Both the "ins" and the "outs" exaggerate their cases and the impacts. Reality is life will change and adjust anyway so forecast impacts go out the window.
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Mar 25, 2016 11:04:38 GMT 7
1) Build THB assets and THB income streams. For me as I often sat, the more important question is can you afford not to invest in Thailand? than the mantra of don't invest any money in Thailand blah blah blah that we hear from some of the expat "experts" I would only agree with this to a certain point. It certainly makes sense, if you have the capital, to purchase a property to live in. That reduces your THB outgoings significantly. And it also makes sense to me to have 2-3 years' expenditure as cash savings (fixed term deposits, savings accounts) so one isn't forced to exchange money if the exchange rate is temporarily unfavourable. (That said, who is to know if an exchange rate is "temporarily unfavourable"? It may become even worse over time.) However, for equity investments I see the Thai market as opaque with poor accounting standards, with some companies being run primarily for the benefit of people other than the shareholders, and pretty blatant insider trading. That makes it rather unattractive to me. I certainly wouldn't want to make direct investments in individual Thai companies myself - I don't have the skills to weed out the dodgy and the outright crooked. However, it would be nice to think that using a skilled fund manager could mitigate some of the risk*. That leaves me in a situation where FX risk is best mitigated by holding investments denominated in a wide range of currencies, that way I get the "average" exchange rate between the baht and the other currencies. I certainly wouldn't want to be in the position where all my investments were denominated in a single currency, which appears to be a common situation with US expats who, having been brainwashed into "USA Number One**" invest solely in the American stock markets. * Looking at the holdings for Aberdeen New Thai, based upon the 2015 Annual Report I note that they have (or rather had) no holding in CP All or True Corp, both of which have recently been involved in insider trading scandals. They also have no holding in JAS, which could be the next scandal. Of course, this could be pure coincidence. ** I always thought that "number one" referred to wee, with "number two" being poo (or poop to Americans).
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smokie36
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Post by smokie36 on Mar 25, 2016 12:58:19 GMT 7
I saw a 4 bed detatched house with large garden for sale at £110,000 yesterday.
Some outstanding value up here.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Mar 25, 2016 13:15:43 GMT 7
1) Build THB assets and THB income streams. For me as I often sat, the more important question is can you afford not to invest in Thailand? than the mantra of don't invest any money in Thailand blah blah blah that we hear from some of the expat "experts" I would only agree with this to a certain point. It certainly makes sense, if you have the capital, to purchase a property to live in. That reduces your THB outgoings significantly. And it also makes sense to me to have 2-3 years' expenditure as cash savings (fixed term deposits, savings accounts) so one isn't forced to exchange money if the exchange rate is temporarily unfavourable. (That said, who is to know if an exchange rate is "temporarily unfavourable"? It may become even worse over time.) However, for equity investments I see the Thai market as opaque with poor accounting standards, with some companies being run primarily for the benefit of people other than the shareholders, and pretty blatant insider trading. That makes it rather unattractive to me. I certainly wouldn't want to make direct investments in individual Thai companies myself - I don't have the skills to weed out the dodgy and the outright crooked. However, it would be nice to think that using a skilled fund manager could mitigate some of the risk*. That leaves me in a situation where FX risk is best mitigated by holding investments denominated in a wide range of currencies, that way I get the "average" exchange rate between the baht and the other currencies. I certainly wouldn't want to be in the position where all my investments were denominated in a single currency, which appears to be a common situation with US expats who, having been brainwashed into "USA Number One**" invest solely in the American stock markets. * Looking at the holdings for Aberdeen New Thai, based upon the 2015 Annual Report I note that they have (or rather had) no holding in CP All or True Corp, both of which have recently been involved in insider trading scandals. They also have no holding in JAS, which could be the next scandal. Of course, this could be pure coincidence. ** I always thought that "number one" referred to wee, with "number two" being poo (or poop to Americans). Actually I'd agree with most of what you've written. For me it's not either or, but it's some THB assets and income, in addition to to some GBP assets and income and some elsewhere. Looking at "investment" in a wider sense: bringing cash here to live, buying a place to live, and even learning the language culture etc, are all investments in life here. The other side though are "experts"/people who leave all their money outside Thailand, etc as "it's not safe". Often they haven't bothered to learn invest time learning the language and culture either, which is part of the reason they think it's "not safe" I've also never been a fan of individual Thai equity investments here either, for the reasons you mention and others. I still prefer mutual funds/ unit trusts, and on top of that a little on futures/options which are based on the index. Not individual companies. I'd be at a big disadvantage compared to a Thai fund manager in Thailand if picking Thai stocks. You can have all the theoretical knowledge you want, but being close to the market, rumours, information etc is important here. JAS is probably a good recent example for anyone looking at the big moves before events are official. These elements are institutionalised, and not always in a good way. Hence picking the right fund management house has been a big factor in returns. Can't say I could quote the names of fund managers like I could in the UK, but the fund management houses and certain funds which consistently deliver (although no-one is best at everything) are there to be seen, and a good argument for active fund management. I've no doubt they're probably also well connected in the market as well
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Post by Fletchsmile on Mar 25, 2016 13:17:26 GMT 7
I saw a 4 bed detatched house with large garden for sale at £110,000 yesterday. Some outstanding value up here. Is that heavily discounted because of the neighbours
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Post by rgs2001uk on Mar 25, 2016 14:45:06 GMT 7
You really cant make this shit up, The One Eyed Clown is very good with someone elses money, isnt he the same clown who sold off our gold resereves. capx.co/now-gordon-brown-wants-uk-taxpayers-to-bail-out-big-oil/Aye comrade come the revoulution it will be the likes of you first up against the wall. A effin hypocrite champagne socialist. My father was at school with Gordon Brown...they attended the local grammar....where the teaching was very much on the superior side of anything else. Simply having been there was an open door back in those days to a better career. If you went to the crap school you had better bring your hod to the interview sonny. Just a snapshot into his teenage years....and bear in mind he came from one of the posh villages as well...silver spoon that lad from birth. Smokie, I have no problem with people attending posh grammar schools, I have no problem with people being born with silver spoons in their mouth, I have no problems with rich people. My problem is with these hypocrite socialists, see Diane Abott for details, treats the working class like mugs, but sends her kids to some posh school. Tony Benn using a tax avoidance system so his family wouldnt pay any taxes on his death, the same guy who called out the Tories for doing the same. Poor old Kier Hardie must be spinning in his grave. These same sanctimonious types who adopt the moral high ground and use derogatory phrases like, "you must understand" As if we plebs are too thick to work it out ourselves. Tony Blair, laughing not only at us, but all the way to the bank.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 25, 2016 16:46:46 GMT 7
blether you don't live here you dislike the place you speak fluent Thai of course don't you. It is amazing that you are an expert on all things Thai.Many of the''morons'' you look down upon have lived here for many years , many of them like me have even bred childredn from the local female stock too, Many of those''morons'' do not rely on income from elsewhere as they too have investment portfolios not connected to Thailand. Your constant whinging about the country and your boasting of your ''investments here in some soapy shop'' are really like you. ''Bloody boring and tedious'' The whole affair is nothing to do with you, It's all about mind over matter. Personally I don't mind how things go here so your comments in reality don't matter. Consider perhaps how hated you are as opposed to the ''morons'' you identify and categorize in your own mind. SP - you do have a habit of jumping onto the martyrs cross. In which way did you read my post as including someone like you as one of these said "morons?" You can speak Thai, you work in Thailand, and you are long established in the country with your own seed now growing up. I am referring to the ten year morons that can't utter a Thai sentence, can't count to ten in Thai, visit the Pattaya visa agents once a year with their 25 K tea money cos they don't qualify to live in the country, etc Tell me, sir - where do you fit within that description? nowhere? so why did you jump on the cross? ...................................... However, that doesn't disqualify you from the label "moron." You are clearly a moron if you believe that I, or my Thai business partner, who is also a member of this forum, are in any way involved in the "soapy shop," business demonstrates the pathetic creature you are too often capable of being.
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Mar 25, 2016 19:31:36 GMT 7
Seem to recall your boast that you had invested some 20,000 pounds or baht in a ''massage parlor'' in Chang Mai, we are all well aware of the wide range of activities the term a''massage parlour'' covers.. I enjoy being a moron as it protects me from chubby Scotsmen who are experts in what ever they claim to be doing. or within the country and area they may be in at any given moment. I always find it interesting when you throw caustic remarks around but, Oh dear when they come back to you your display of self righteous indignation is a joy to behold. If your Thai business partner is a member of this forum I am sure he or she will indeed spring to your defense and have me removed lock stock and barrel. 'Parting is such sweet sorrow that I shall say goodnight till it be morrow.' Or thereabouts
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bowie
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Post by bowie on Mar 25, 2016 22:07:54 GMT 7
Had to pay my annual health insurance last week, today my son's school fees.
Laugh if I go broke, what a joke. I should have known bletter.
Prefer when I am dead that my meager pension still provides. But happy for rgs, although I suspect my Bangkok property in my son's name is now worth fifty times the price (my wife) paid for it. Ah, to gloat!
How long is rgs , the old man, going to survive till death in his beloved England. Enjoy the day.
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bowie
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Post by bowie on Mar 25, 2016 22:34:06 GMT 7
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Post by rgs2001uk on Mar 25, 2016 23:29:02 GMT 7
Had to pay my annual health insurance last week, today my son's school fees. Laugh if I go broke, what a joke. I should have known bletter. Prefer when I am dead that my meager pension still provides. But happy for rgs, although I suspect my Bangkok property in my son's name is now worth fifty times the price (my wife) paid for it. Ah, to gloat! How long is rgs , the old man, going to survive till death in his beloved England. Enjoy the day. You are a good man bowie, nice to see you in such fine spirits tonight. I am unable to indulge you in a spat of you trolling me trolling you this fine evening, an egg and cheese sannie has just appeared in front of me. Old man, , nice one, I suspect you are older than I, never mind. Nice bit of verbal jousting.
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buhi
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Post by buhi on Mar 25, 2016 23:38:00 GMT 7
Eat your mangos
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bowie
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Post by bowie on Mar 25, 2016 23:55:23 GMT 7
I bought a new wallet today, true. Leather of the best.
I only intended to buy a purse I keep my small change in a purse. What a poof! Leather purse oh don't get me Lou Reading,and a deal for both yes I can speak Thai when I choose. Oh the money? Ah, that is a question.
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bowie
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Post by bowie on Mar 26, 2016 0:06:03 GMT 7
Side note, on "Berlin" album, Lou Reed never plays lead guitar.
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