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Post by mangomoney on May 24, 2016 11:50:45 GMT 7
Is your money safe in Thai banks? Moody's investor service's view: Announcement: Moody's: Thai banking system stable over the next 12-18 months; strong loss buffers and steady profitGlobal Credit Research - 23 May 2016
Singapore, May 23, 2016 -- Moody's Investors Service says that the outlook for Thailand's banking system is stable over the next 12-18 months, and reflects primarily the banks' strong loss absorption buffers."The banks' high provisions and strong capitalization levels—against the backdrop of the slow credit growth environment—will allow them to maintain their credit profiles over the next 12-18 months," says Alka Anbarasu, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst."However, weak economic growth will remain the system's key operating challenge," adds Anbarasu.Moody's conclusions were contained in its just-released report on Thai banks, entitled, "Strong Loss Buffers and Steady Profits Support Stable Outlook," and is authored by Anbarasu.The stable outlook is based on Moody's assessment of five drivers: Operating Environment (stable); Asset Quality and Capital (deteriorating); Funding and Liquidity (stable); Profitability and Efficiency (stable); and Systemic Support (stable).more.... www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Thai-banking-system-stable-over-the-next-12-18--PR_349355
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AyG
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
Posts: 5,871
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Post by AyG on May 24, 2016 12:11:02 GMT 7
Is your money safe in Thai banks? Moody's investor service's view: Sorry to be boring, but you're completely misrepresenting what Moody's wrote. They were writing about the stability of the banks vis-a-vis the security of bond repayments. That's what Moody's does. As for retail investors, for the vast majority their money is safe given the DPA's deposit protection scheme, even if the bank goes under.
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Post by mangomoney on May 24, 2016 14:22:50 GMT 7
That's not wholly accurate. This is a general research paper on the banking industry. Their papers are also not all specific to the credit rating and security of bond repayments alone. As an example they will issue long term ratings for banks that don't have bonds outstanding. What you're referring to is "Capital Markets Research" and "ratings on (bond) issues". Here they are referring to credit risk generally not just security of bond repayments. This is "industry outlook" research. The different types of research are listed on their website, here: www.moodys.com/researchandratings/research-type/homeEven in the notes and disclaimers on the original page it says credit ratings are their opinions of relative future credit risk of entities, credit commitments or debt securities etc, i.e. is not specific to bonds repayments only.
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Post by Fletchsmile on May 24, 2016 14:34:52 GMT 7
As for retail investors, for the vast majority their money is safe given the DPA's deposit protection scheme, even if the bank goes under. The interesting bit with the DPA is that the DPA scheme itself probably doesn't have enough funds to cover one of the large 4 banks if they default. They probably have enough for a mid-size bank only. In the event of multiple bank defaults at the same time, their funds would definitely be inadequate. Of the 47 basis points they collect on deposits these days, only one basis point actually goes into the fund that the DPA would pay out of. The rest going into paying off previous debts. The government or related ministry would probably step in though, and I'd say reasonably safe in THB terms if they did go under. For me the Moody's ratings are just another factor to consider in the whole picture, and as a general rule a better rating means they would less likely hit a credit event, whether that be a bond default or other credit default, so less likely to need the DPA to kick in and less likely for the government to need to bail out the DPA if insufficient. They're all just probabilities. I'd say no bank in the world is 100% safe though, even with deposit guarantees and government guarantees etc.
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