|
Post by Fletchsmile on May 24, 2016 15:07:49 GMT 7
At the time some people thought it would be a large issue. Three years on from the 'taper tantrum', where next for bond markets?Three years ago the US Federal Reserve sent a shockwave through government bond markets with the suggestion it would ‘taper’ (gradually withdraw) its quantitative easing (QE) programme.
QE created significant demand for government bonds, which helped drive yields to record lows and prices higher. To taper QE would reverse this, or so the theory went.
What was the ‘taper tantrum’?
On 22 May 2013 Ben Bernanke, then Chairman of the Federal Reserve, hinted the US economy could survive without life support and the $85 billion pumped into the economy each month might be reduced slowly.
Bond market traders panicked and the subsequent sell-off caused yields to spike sharply higher and prices to fall. The speed and severity of the sell-off (and ultimate rebound) was akin to traders throwing their toys out of the pram – hence it was nick-named the ‘taper tantrum’.
Some commentators were keen to bang the final nail into the government bond market’s coffin and suggest a multi-decade run of generally strong performance was at an end. These predictions have been common in recent years – excessive pessimism and an eagerness to call the next crisis has been the worst mistake of many an investor since the financial crisis. contd. www.hl.co.uk/news/articles/three-years-on-from-the-taper-tantrum-where-next-for-bond-markets
|
|
|
Post by Fletchsmile on May 25, 2016 11:56:04 GMT 7
Around that time 3 years back, I did purchase some ETFs which give effective exposure to short positions in gilts, with a view to trying to profit from potential falls in prices as rates were increased. One of the ETFs I used was: XUGS:LN www.bloomberg.com/quote/XUGS:LN and XUG index.db.com/dbiqweb2/data/guides/DB_UK_Gilts_Short_Daily.pdfThe intention was then to add to positions if the trend continued. It actually worked well for a short while/ couple of months. But when I saw that all this wasn't going to pan out with significant rate rises not about to happen, I sold and took small profits. Out of curiousity I did leave 1 share invested in XUGS just to see what happened longer term, and understand better how the ETF functions in practice in case I want to use it again. As it was only about 100 quid for that one share it was just to experiment. It lost around 15% or 15 quid in the last 3 years on that one share. If and when the time looks right again for shorting gilts, this is one simple way of doing it, hence the monitoring on a very small position
|
|
|
Post by Fletchsmile on May 25, 2016 12:00:55 GMT 7
Another ETF I used was XUSS This was effectively 2x short on the daily movement in gilts. Again this made money short term, more so than XUGS. This one I closed out completely though as I don't like holding 2x and 3x ETFs longer term.
2x and 3x ETFs have their uses sometimes depending on what you're looking for, particularly if short term. But if holding long term, a negative factor to bear in mind is that it's 2x the daily movements, not 2x the movement of your holding period.
Can be useful for short term leverage. But I really don't like for longer term whether short or long positions.
|
|