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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2016 9:15:24 GMT 7
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pathumseb
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
I found you at last!
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Post by pathumseb on Jun 25, 2016 9:30:20 GMT 7
Kinda lucky as I choose if I want to be paid in USD,EUR,THB or local currency. Will hold the money in Thailand before making any big decision on what to do with my very modest savings.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jun 25, 2016 16:07:56 GMT 7
My strategy was mainly to wait and see what happened, and will probably continue to do so without any major shifts in positions. From a long term investing perspective: Which is where most of my money is it's just one of those blips in my view and I don't like changing my long term strategies for short term unpredictable events that could go either way. My viewing being that the portfolios are built to withstand shocks and recover over time. From a short term trading perspective: I do take more speculative/ calculated bets on smaller amounts of money, and was prepared to make some for this. I was 75% to 80% certain that Brexit wouldn't happen so was tempted to buy UK and European equities after recent weakness. But given the 20% - 25% risk didn't want to take big positions on it. So I was waiting for the positive result and then buy into the rally. That way I wouldn't get the full gains of the expected rally but didn't have the downside either in the unlikely event Brexit didn't happen. As it didn't happen and I was wrong on the outcome, I'm happy I did that From here I'll wait a little and look for the opportunities from any possible further corrections. I'm looking to buy and add to UK and European short term positions but not yet. I think there's an opportunity and money to be made. Just too volatile and unpredictable for now. So wait and see...
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jun 25, 2016 16:20:26 GMT 7
Looking at the outcome and having just finished analysing most of the impact, I'm pretty happy with the result. My investments held up well. Particularly in GBP terms. In GBP terms the currency devaluation has meant gains on my non-UK and non-European investments. Even though many stock markets fell, the currency gains have far outweighed them. e.g. We've a large weighting to THB equities, and while the stock market fell around 2% in Thailand we gained around 8% in sterling terms. So that was a 6%-ish gain ball park One of those times where to have ignored the mantra of don't invest in Thailand has worked out really well. The condo is worth 8% more than yesterday in GBP terms. Thai equities worth around 6% more in GBP terms. In THB terms we've some small losses, as in reverse UK and European investments are worth less, as are anything where the underlying is GBP or Euro. So in THB terms we're a bit worse off than yesterday. The big positive though is that in GBP terms we're quite a bit better off than yesterday The other nice thing is knowing that after a shock event like this we're able to absorb it without any real impact on our lifestyles. Except the Mrs. saying it's now cheaper to go and live in the UK
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jun 25, 2016 16:24:57 GMT 7
Doesn't look good though for those living in Thailand but with the mantra of don't invest in Thailand, keep your money in the UK where it's "safe". They've seen their UK assets go down 8% in THB terms as well as falls on the investments themselves on top of that.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2016 20:42:40 GMT 7
Doesn't look good though for those living in Thailand but with the mantra of don't invest in Thailand, keep your money in the UK where it's "safe". They've seen their UK assets go down 8% in THB terms as well as falls on the investments themselves on top of that. I agree. A fair few folk will be sweating as they watch the currency fluctuations. To think around December the rate was 55 baht, now down to 48 and change. Painful for those on a tight budget. A British pensioner on £7000 a year would have been lifting about 32,000 a month before exchange costs - now down to 28,200. I reckon they should brace themselves for sub-25,000 a month. No meat left on that bone - And of course, with my prediction of low 40's, many people won't now qualify by income for visas. At a rate of 42, that would work in at £1550 a month to hit the 65,000 level. Most retired civil service types I know have pensions around £1350 - £1400. There's going to be a fair few one way flights to Blighty getting booked.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jun 29, 2016 15:18:51 GMT 7
Just added a little to Allianz (ALV) and AXA (CS) today, both in EUR. I've held both these for quite a few years, and now we're back to levels of a couple of years back. The way insurers have been beaten up over Brexit seems overdone to me. Allianz, German listed, and AXA French listed are solid companies and look decent value to me around these levels. Have waited for a small bounce in the last day or so to see if they stablise. Hope it's not a deadcat one , but at least it gives some comfort they're not in free fall. Even after the recent small bounce ALV is down 11% and CS is down 19%. There may well be negative impacts of Brexit for them. Uncertainties on European regulations. Lower interest rates for longer mean less return on any fixed income/bonds/gilts they hold. But I really can't see that being 10% - 20% of the companies worth. Solvency II gets mentioned as industry regulations. Crudely put that's the insurance companies equivalent to Basel II/ Basel III. Whether in UK or Europe I don't see that making much difference. Both UK and Europe are in similar steps. While they may rethink things, I can't see the UK being significantly different in the future from Europe, in the same way for Basel II/II they don't differ much. ALV now shows a 5.8% div yield on BBerg and CS 6.4%. I don't see them having to cut these. Single digit P/Es on Bberg now of 7 to 8 ish. So even if it is a short term bumpy ride and I may have missed the bottom on the way up, or it goes down further, long term I don't mind holding a bit more of these. Especially in the low interest environment we're in with low yields on EUR cash. I don't hold many individual European shares, but do hold these two. So given the recent opportunity am happy and comfortable to add.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jul 8, 2016 14:07:38 GMT 7
Hargreaves Lansdown have started a small collections of articles following Brexit. Probably worth a read for anyone interested: Brexit investment plan www.hl.co.uk/referendum
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jul 8, 2016 14:10:04 GMT 7
from there... None of the 5 below particularly appeal to me. But then these days that's partly because I'm trying to hold less individual shares and use funds to simplify life Five share ideas for a post-referendum portfolioSteve Clayton | 1 July 2016 | A A A Britain’s decision to leave the EU is a major change in direction for all of us and the implications will take a long time to become clear. In short, no-one knows for sure how significant the impact of Brexit will be, or even whether it will end up as a positive or a negative for the UK. Navigating the investment landscape becomes ever more challenging when such uncertainties abound. Consequences might be debatable, but the share price moves since the vote are observable and some of these are very severe. Banks, builders, airlines, retail and leisure companies have all seen sharp falls. On the other hand, the sharp fall in the value of the pound has seen overseas earners like pharmaceutical companies enjoying share price increases. Where price movements have been greatest, there may be opportunity. Those hit by economic uncertainty may benefit if the outcome is better than expected. Businesses with large overseas earnings may find the impact of Brexit, good or bad, to be immaterial. So I’ve been looking for shares that I think could have been unfairly treated in the aftermath of the vote and those that look to be fairly immune to its consequences. No recommendation No news or research item is a personal recommendation to deal. All investments can fall as well as rise in value so you could get back less than you invest. Bargains or basket cases? contd... www.hl.co.uk/news/articles/five-share-ideas-for-a-post-referendum-portfolio
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Post by Skywalker69 on Jul 9, 2016 12:35:23 GMT 7
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