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Post by Fletchsmile on Jul 6, 2016 11:06:13 GMT 7
So we're just past the half way mark in 2016. Quite a bumpy road so far with a few surprises along the way.
So what's worked for you in the last 6 months and what's not so far?
... and will it really be a game of two halves / what you expecting for 2H 2016?
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jul 6, 2016 11:07:46 GMT 7
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Jul 6, 2016 11:42:12 GMT 7
Accounting in Sterling, my best performers have been, YTD:
BlackRock Gold & General +123% BlackRock World Mining Trust +56% JP Morgan Natural Resources +50%
Having considered selling out of these earlier in the year, I'm now glad I didn't.
Just behind was a surprise for me:
First State Global Listed Infrastructure +30%
(Lazard Global Listed Infrastructure, which had previously been significantly outperforming the First State fund has been a laggard this year, is only up 3%.)
And then there's Aberdeen New Thai (investment trust) +39%.
Of course, the fall of the value of the pound has inflated these figures.
Looking across all my investments (including cash) to the end of June, I was up 9.4% in GBP, but down 3.5% in THB.
Biggest losers: Independent IT -7% (but that's after a fantastic year or so - 3 years annualised return is 15.9%, even after the recent fall), and Henderson European Focus Trust -14.0%.
In Sterling, I've got 5 losers YTD out of 30 holdings, so, given the circumstances, mustn't grumble.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jul 7, 2016 10:33:31 GMT 7
It's been an eventful and unexpected first half for me. I feel like I got quite a few individual calls wrong in terms of what I thought would happen, eg: - Was surprised at the Brexit result - Thought resources and commodities stocks might pick up in 2nd Half 2016, not 1H 2015 - Didn't think gold would rise so much etc But in terms of investment I feel like the big picture is fine and done OK. Most of my investment portfolios (as opposed to trading) are mainly focused long term, with diversication to reduce risk and increase the chances that things go wrong in some areas, other areas compensate. To 30 June: Best performers are all gold related (in GBP terms): Pan Africa Resources Shares (PAF) +239% (excl divs) Junior Gold Trust +166% Blackrock Gold & General +105% I actually sold PAF as I feel it no longer fits the way I want to do things long term, and would rather just have funds of gold producers than individual shares. Since I sold the price has gone up further - sod's law if I'd have waited another week or so the YTD gain would have been more like 300%. It was basically held as a recovery play, high risk. As the object has been met I sold - albeit rather earlier than I should have done with hindsight it seems Resource related funds have also done OK - First State Global Resources +22% (in SGD terms) Gold ETFs have also done quite well, including those held in Thailand: -TMB gold, MFC gold, Krungrsi Gold all up around 20% in THB terms. -If I measure in GBP terms they be up over 30%, given GBP has depreciated by about 12% vs THB -Krungrsi is also in an RMF so I've had tax relief on top of that for the new money this year Emerging Markets funds have all done well (in GBP terms) boosted in part by the weaker pound - JPM Russian IT +25% (excl divs) - IEER Eastern European IT +23% (excl divs) - Stewart Investors GEM (previously First State) +20% Losers: Mainly UK equities Standard Life UK equity -18% LWI - Lowland IT -11% Standard Life UK Smaller Co.s -10% To be honest while I like Emerging Markets and they're a larger part of my portfolio than most people would have (living in one), the commodity, resources and gold are not areas I particularly like. I hold them for diversification and balance, and glad I have done. Overall I was up about 13% to 30 June in GBP terms, but up only around 1% in THB terms
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Jul 7, 2016 10:47:37 GMT 7
To be honest while I like Emerging Markets and they're a larger part of my portfolio than most people would have (living in one) Fletch, I'm curious: (1) Do you view emerging markets as a whole? Or do you bias your investments towards certain countries/continents? Perhaps tilting towards Thailand and Asia to match your home economy? (2) How do you feel about the fact that emerging markets have basically gone nowhere in the last 5 years? With the gift of hindsight, would you still have been overweight over this period? And for how much longer do you think poor performance will continue?
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jul 7, 2016 10:48:02 GMT 7
BTW On Blackrock and General Fund I think my fund is a same version to AYGs. The reason I have a 105% gain and he has 124% gain isn't down to Thai double pricing I think he's done YTD to 4/5 July whereas I did to 30 June. It rose from 1169 at 30 June to 1282-ish at 4 July looking at the graph. Yesterday was up another 3% again Regardless of the date here or there, the fund really has had a stellar year so far. It's one of the few resource/ commodity related funds I could see myself keeping long term. I don't really like specialist resource funds any more and would prefer them to be just part of a wider equity fund which can access resources. For gold producers though, my thinking is a little different because of the way gold behaves and the gold element. I'm slowly phasing out any individual gold producer shares but Blackrock and possibly Junior Gold for the juniors may be where that money ends up.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jul 7, 2016 11:52:39 GMT 7
To be honest while I like Emerging Markets and they're a larger part of my portfolio than most people would have (living in one) Fletch, I'm curious: (1) Do you view emerging markets as a whole? Or do you bias your investments towards certain countries/continents? Perhaps tilting towards Thailand and Asia to match your home economy? (2) How do you feel about the fact that emerging markets have basically gone nowhere in the last 5 years? With the gift of hindsight, would you still have been overweight over this period? And for how much longer do you think poor performance will continue? My own view is that that EMs can be quite different in nature. Talking about them I do generalise though and use the term generically a lot, when referring to them as an asset class. Mainly as it's a convenient term just to talk about developing countries and growth potential. When it comes to investment though, like yourself, I think people need to realise more these are not homogenous countries, that are interchangeable. Even if the country is the same it seems some analysts and investors forget that at the end of the day there are also sectors and these are real companies. Not just a big basket of EMs. One fund may favour financials in say Thailand, another favour commodities in Thailand or someone else. Grouping them all as EMs or even a country totally overlooks this. These are reasons why I don't like index ETFs and tracker funds. I prefer active management. I've a few ways I've experimented with both active/ passive: Individual country funds. This is time consuming though. Nice when you get it right, but as the markets can be volatile and unpredictable that's not easy. Another difficulty is no place to hide when its not good. You either have to sell or hold. Vietnam is one of the few countries I still hold a fund for, and Russia another. These days I prefer to avoid this approach, but I do occasionally think there's an opportunity like Russia has been. ETF and index trackers. I've dipped my toes into in small amounts. Generally though I find they do less well than when I really do my research and pick the right fund managers. Exactly your implied point that they not all a nice single basket. The dogs can significantly drag down the quality. Some of the EMs can be basket cases so having a stake in them just because they are in an index makes little sense to me. Overall, my largest holdings and preferred strategy that's worked best for me is to try and highlight the fund managers who consistently over long periods do well vs the index and the sector and who deliver the sort of GBP and THB returns I'm looking for. People like First State/Stewart Investors and Aberdeen. I leave the country choice, segment choices to them. I take comfort that they overweight some markets and avoid others if they think they are poor value. I don't want closet trackers. They get it wrong from time to time as everyone does - perhaps more so than other markets because of unexpected events and uncertainties First State/Stewart Investors and Aberdeen have consistently outperformed over longer time frames. Aberdeen for example has had a couple of tough years. First State more consistent. bigmango.boards.net/thread/5958/aberdeen-emerging-markets-equity-researchIn terms of generalising, though I do prefer Asia EMs to other EMs. A few reasons: - That's where I think on the whole more of the opportunities are. But there are also good and bad in Asia too. Stan Chart for example market themselves as Asia, Africa and Middle East. I've watched how for years their best returns have come from Asia - I probably understand here better and have more experience and familiar with them, having lived and worked in Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Korea (not sure I would say is EM really( etc. Also they link better with the bigger developed Asian markets like Singapore, HK - Because I'm Thailand based Asia performance is more relevant to me. A sort of variation on why I have a higher weighting to Thai equities. Like a European should probably have a higher weighting to Euroland. So overall there isn't a single factor. I prefer active to passive, Asia to other EM, but those are massive generalisations.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jul 7, 2016 12:07:04 GMT 7
Some of my views on the last 5 years and looking forward: As for the poor performance over the last 5 years. I'm not that bothered. I'd like all my markets to go up every year. It's just time to recognise cycles again.
I don't think the EM story has gone away. Perhaps not as strong as people who got involved in the hype assumed. But longer term, generalising the growth is there.
For me I'm perhaps biased a bit thru great returns in the 2000's. The first decade of this century US and UK etc went nowhere. I had a very good decade out of Thailand and EMs. I'd very little US expsoure in the first decade of this century, and more in EMs.
Perhaps it shouldn't be the case in an ideal world, but perspectives always seem different if an investment has served you well in the past, there's that comfort sector emotionally.
With the benefit of hindsight, it would have been better to have less in EMs in the last 5 years. Sod's law though if I had reduced my expsoures they'd have done better.
Short to medium term is always difficult to call for EMs.
Looking forward there's also a comfort EMs have had a difficult time, so many markets are not in bubbles. I think we've perhaps past the worst of a bad period for many markets, and there are some good opportunities there. So while not out of the woods a generalised feeling is the worst is over (unless another GFC flares up) and I don't expect poor performance to continue much longer for several markets.
I think we're already seeing signs this year of things picking up. e.g Russia is one example. But on the other hand I don't like China though and not comfortable with too much China exposure. Again an example of how I view them differently.
Brexit and UK/European problems make EMs relatively more attractive to UK and Europe than they were. Even though globally it might be negative for both, I think relatively EMs will fare better while the confusion and uncertainty drags on.
Very wide topic though.
My short answer is they make sense. So generally we should find the right active funds/ managers to go wherever is needed and whenever. Then supplement a little for personal views as an option
What are your thoughts and views?
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Jul 8, 2016 8:24:51 GMT 7
I agree with a lot of what you say. Certain emerging markets are very much a resources/energy play, for which I have a separate allocation in my asset allocation model, so I prefer to avoid funds with a high allocation, in particular, to South America.
Of course, the heavyweights in emerging markets are China and India. I find it bothersome that some managers heavily favour one, others, the other. Surely one must be a more attractive market than the other, and the fund managers should know.
Russia is a market I try to avoid: too corrupt. Far too great a chance of Putin or one of his allies seizing a company you've invested in.
I too prefer active to passive management for Emerging Markets, though I do hold one ETF, EMCR (traded in New York). It has a very different country allocation from the EM funds/trust I hold. It's largest country allocation is South Africa, and it doesn't invest in Korea or Taiwan (now considered "developed"), unlike the Aberdeen and Stewart funds. Unfortunately, its performance has been unspectacular - down 2% since launch in 2012. (However, that's in USD, so accounting in GBP it's not so bad.)
In terms of asset allocation, I'm a firm advocate of avoiding home country bias and of weighting one's investments to the local economy. My asset allocation model therefore has 8% in Thailand (5% "normal" equities, 3% property shares [though part of that 3% is actually invested in Singapore property]). I then have 13% in Asia-Pacific and a further 13% in Emerging Markets - though there's a fair bit of overlap between the two. And I have 3% in an Emerging Market bonds ETF, purely for diversification purposes (and a decent 4.9% yield). So, in all, that's 37% in Asia-Pacific and Emerging Markets, plus some indirect exposure through my Natural Resources investments.
Emerging Markets are definitely overdue for a bounce back in my opinion. However, until the US drops its "innovative" (read: ridiculous) fiscal policies and some semblance of normality is restored, EM values will remain depressed. But I guess that isn't going to happen this year, and probably not even next.
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naam
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Post by naam on Jul 9, 2016 19:31:34 GMT 7
9% SRLEV NV NOTES VARIABLE RATE REG-S SUBORD. 2011-15.04.2041 XS0616936372 +3.12%6% GOTHAER ALLGEMEINE VERSICHERUNG AG MEDIUM TERM NOTES FIXED TO FLOATING RATE 2015-30.10.2045 DE000A168478 +4.58%9.5% MARFRIG OVERSEAS LTD NOTES GTD REG-S 2010-04.05.2020 USG5814RAB45 +9.00%6.75% IAMGOLD CORP NOTES SENIOR REG-S 2012-01.10.2020 USC4535AAA81 +9.19%12.75% PETROLEOS DE VENEZUELA SA PDVSA NOTES SENIOR REG-S 2011-17.02.2022 USP7807HAM71 +22.42%RUSSIAN STANDARD LTD 15/22 REG-S 2015-27.10.2022 XS1117280625 +4.23%8.75% YPF SA NOTES SENIOR REG-S 2014-04.04.2024 USP989MJAY76 +13.44%7.5% BOMBARDIER INC NOTES SENIOR REG-S 2015-15.03.2025 USC10602BA41 +1.49%9.625% PROVINCE OF BUENOS AIRES NOTES REG-S 2007-18.04.2028 XS0290125391 +14.27%6.875% VALE CAPITAL LTD NOTES GTD 2009-10.11.2039 US91911TAK97 +47.50%6.875% PETROBRAS INTERNATIONAL FINANCE COMPANY LTD NOTES SR GTD UNSECD 2009-20.01.2040 US71645WAQ42 +12.35%5.625% BRAZIL NOTES 2009-07.01.2041 US105756BR01 +24.59%10% GP INVESTMENTS LTD REG-S NOTES 2007-WITHOUT FIXED MATURITY XS0282340230 +4.96%6.5% PRUDENTIAL PLC 2003-PERPETUAL XS0170488992 +2.68%7.625% JC PENNEY CO INC DEBS. 1997-01.03.2097 US708160BL99 +3.82%8.375% PROVINCE OF MENDOZA NOTES REG-S 2016-19.05.2024 USP6480JAG24 not applicable 6.5% PETROLEOS MEXICANOS PEMEX NOTES GTD SENIOR 2011-02.06.2041 US71654QAZ54 not applicable 9.5% VTB EURASIA LIMITED REGD.NOTES FLOATING RATE 2012-WITHOUT FIXED MATURITY XS0810596832 +13.56%YTD 2016 = 12.44% Read more: bigmango.boards.net/thread/3641/where-investing-2016#ixzz4DugJ4iZx
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smokie36
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Post by smokie36 on Jul 9, 2016 20:04:44 GMT 7
When are you going to open a Big Mango Fund Naam?
I'm definitely in when you do!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2016 20:05:23 GMT 7
First the good news - Glencore + 31% HSS + 41% Now the bad news, Mosman Oil and Gas - It's that bad I'm not telling you.
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naam
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Post by naam on Jul 9, 2016 20:28:34 GMT 7
When are you going to open a Big Mango Fund Naam? I'm definitely in when you do! i have to disappoint you. i am handling since 26 years the financial affairs of three friends and the burden gets heavier every year especially in an interest rate environment we are facing now and which i think will go on. 15 years ago i wouldn't have touched a subordinate bond or a single B rate debtor if the yield was less than 20% and the outlook positive. today i have to buy risky crap to achieve yields of 8-9%. my YTD performance 2016 is not representative!
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naam
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Post by naam on Oct 30, 2016 18:29:00 GMT 7
another trading day and dangerous october is "ober"
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buddahas
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Post by buddahas on Oct 30, 2016 18:35:13 GMT 7
another trading day and dangerous october is "ober" Oh, you post here?
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