ATF
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Post by ATF on Apr 7, 2015 7:39:36 GMT 7
There is some confusion here Greece getting kicked out of the EU that isn't on the cards and it's definitely something Greece couldn't handle or want. The issue at stake is whether Greece will be allowed to continue to use the EUR as currency which is looking more likely that it won't be able to by the day. How will they stop Greece using the Euro? I use Euros, and I defy anyone in the Eurozone from stopping me. As posted above, everyone in Greece will continue using the Euro, except perhaps for the government, who may use tap washers or cowrie shells, but whatever real economy remains will use the Euro. In or out of the Euro, how will Greece's creditors enforce their collection? Who will be the bailiffs? If they cannot enforce the debt, then what benefit will pushing them into the informal Euro zone have? SC Easy the EU will stop Greece accessing EUR this will obligate Greece to print their own currency which will be worth toilet paper or maybe slightly less. So all pensions, government officials, the cops and military will get paid in the new Drachma. Greece will not be able to issue EUR denominated bonds and I can't see anyone being foolish enough to buy Drachma bonds. The EUR will probably end up being a shadow if not the main currency in Greece as you say and the benefit to the EU will be that they don't have to keep pouring money into a bottomless pit. However again as you mention debt recovery from Greece is going to be pie in the sky and this really applies whether or not they are forced to ditch the EUR. They will still be in the European Union but with their own currency just like the UK, Denmark etc. Russia will not be setting up bases in Greece and invading Europe. Russia wants to lend money to Greece because the RUB is worth shite too and they probably see a good rate of return. Maybe cheap holidays for Russians. Who knows what goes through Putin's mind? It would also be a good way for the Oligarchs to get cash out of Russia. |
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Post by paddyjenkins on Apr 7, 2015 8:42:22 GMT 7
Greece wont have any EURs to use. That's the problem, they are broke, shut out of the markets, unable to issue bonds basically because nobody trusts them. So if they leave they will need their own currency but that currency will be extremely weak. That's why they will be vulnerable to the Russians and the Chinese, who will seek to exploit this weakness, providing lending in exchange for leverage within Europe. The involvement of Russia could lead to military conflict within Europe.
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ATF
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Post by ATF on Apr 7, 2015 9:08:15 GMT 7
Greece wont have any EURs to use. That's the problem, they are broke, shut out of the markets, unable to issue bonds basically because nobody trusts them. So if they leave they will need their own currency but that currency will be extremely weak. That's why they will be vulnerable to the Russians and the Chinese, who will seek to exploit this weakness, providing lending in exchange for leverage within Europe. The involvement of Russia could lead to military conflict within Europe. That would not be possible unless Greece left the EU which would be suicide. Greeks would no longer be able to travel and work freely in Europe. Staying in the EU Greece will still be subject to EU regulations and it would be impossible for China and Russia to leverage Europe using Greece as a tool. The Greeks have to back down and drastically reduce Government spending and collect more tax otherwise the future is very bleak. Greek GDP is only around 2% of EU GDP so the EU is holding all the cards. |
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naam
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Post by naam on Apr 7, 2015 14:55:32 GMT 7
Greece wont have any EURs to use. That's the problem, they are broke, shut out of the markets, unable to issue bonds basically because nobody trusts them. So if they leave they will need their own currency but that currency will be extremely weak. That's why they will be vulnerable to the Russians and the Chinese, who will seek to exploit this weakness, providing lending in exchange for leverage within Europe. The involvement of Russia could lead to military conflict within Europe. That would not be possible unless Greece left the EU which would be suicide. Greeks would no longer be able to travel and work freely in Europe. Staying in the EU Greece will still be subject to EU regulations and it would be impossible for China and Russia to leverage Europe using Greece as a tool. The Greeks have to back down and drastically reduce Government spending and collect more tax otherwise the future is very bleak. Greek GDP is only around 2% of EU GDP so the EU is holding all the cards. |
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ATF
Crazy Mango
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Post by ATF on Apr 7, 2015 17:34:53 GMT 7
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Morakot
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Post by Morakot on Apr 8, 2015 16:29:42 GMT 7
... all Euro banknotes with Greek letters will be worthless!  |
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SirToad
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Post by SirToad on Apr 8, 2015 16:40:20 GMT 7
Have they lost their marbles?
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ATF
Crazy Mango
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Post by ATF on Apr 8, 2015 19:13:31 GMT 7
Have they lost their marbles? Yes they have the Greek PM is in Russia now stirring up thaivisa |
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SirToad
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Post by SirToad on Apr 8, 2015 19:14:49 GMT 7
Never trust a Greek bearing gifts, they are from thaivisa
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bbaker
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Post by bbaker on Apr 9, 2015 4:43:05 GMT 7
I guess some people don't know that Greece has been offered a new 300 billion Euro bailout. All they have to do is email their bank details to this guy in Kenya.
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Post by streetcowboy on Apr 9, 2015 5:19:12 GMT 7
Have they lost their marbles? Insults are like sex - it's nice if you can do it without them noticing, better if you get a good reaction, but best of all when they realise half way through |
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Post by Fletchsmile on Apr 14, 2015 12:44:47 GMT 7
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Post by thaiatheart on Apr 16, 2015 1:59:11 GMT 7
The only way out for Greece is a massive default or to leave the euro. They will never be able to pay back this level of debt.
If they leave, eventually the euro will strengthen because it is weighed down by the basket cases of Greece and others. This of course would kill German industry who have a vested interest in keeping these poorer countries in, hence Merkel being willing to lend to keep them in. Germany is basically forcing Greece to suffer where they could undergo a 97 style devaluation and trade their way out.
Money would flood in if they went back to the drachma for fdi.
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The Arrow
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Post by The Arrow on Apr 16, 2015 6:46:26 GMT 7
Greece in new downgrade by S&P for "unsustainable" commitmentsRatings agency S&P has downgraded Greece's credit rating again, saying it expects its debt and other financial commitments will be "unsustainable".It has dropped long and short-term sovereign credit ratings to CCC+/C from B-/B and says its outlook is negative. www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32326547
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Post by paddyjenkins on Apr 16, 2015 19:27:37 GMT 7
The consensus is getting very negative now on Greece leaving. But there are solutions, assuming Tsipras and Varoufakis are capable of acting reasonably. Restructuring their debt into a form of perpetual bond with coupon fixed to nominal GDP, assuming a floor, would allow Greece to stay in and save face, Europe to save face and creditors to have some chance of recovering their money over time. Assuming a very low or even zero coupon to start with Greece would have a chance of recovering over time. The devil would be in the detail of ensuring GDP to be calculated independently and their books audited. In the event of Greece acting dishonestly then some kind of collateral claim on Greek assets may be needed to satisfy creditors.
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