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Post by Fletchsmile on Oct 13, 2016 10:59:08 GMT 7
...spouse just made large deposits into his 3 local mutual funds: he thinks the stock market may be at or near a bottom...I hope he's right... Very risk call if they are Thai equity mutual funds. There's always the possibility he's right of course. But I think there's a higher probability he's not. Also if he's wrong and events really take a turn for the worse, I'd say he stands to lose more than he stands to gain at this point, short term at least. I hope your decorating budget doesn't depend on the money
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Oct 13, 2016 11:09:28 GMT 7
You mean to say the market has gone ''bottoms up.'' May not be the right timing and things for curtaintwitcher and spouse.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Oct 13, 2016 11:10:32 GMT 7
Unfortunately I missed most of yesterday's early afternoon as I was tied up elsewhere. Luckily not literally or in the type of squire attire SP is sporting Trend is downwards again this morning. Still some big risks there. On the positive side though, it's comforting to know that the market has been adjusting downwards each day. So if there is a shock event, a fair bit of the bad news is now built in. Rather than have a complete out of the blue shock with a large collapse. When articles refer to the last steep drop, that was in December 2014 when SET dropped 10% in a day without any real sort of warning and the circuit breakers kicked in to halt trade. That was also again rumours of the same "domestic factor", which proved false on that occasion. Events seem more serious this time, but at least not out of the blue.
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Oct 13, 2016 11:35:23 GMT 7
hence I and our trusty guard Gerbil are dressed thus with our standard flying. You do realise that isn't a gerbil, don't you? It's a guinea pig, and guinea pigs are useless as guards, unlike the ferocious and feared gerbil. As Wikipedia tells us "Gerbils are known to attack and often kill those carrying an unfamiliar scent".
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Oct 13, 2016 11:38:47 GMT 7
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Oct 13, 2016 11:51:48 GMT 7
Yes I know, but the bloke I bought it from said it was a Gerbil. His asking price was ''21 shillings'' that's why our gerbil then metamorphosed into a ''Guinea Pig.'' We got what we paid for, fair exchange is no robbery!!! When I were a young un in England us allus bought and sold our livestock in guinea values same as me old dad allus did with me first pony then me 'orses too www.coins-of-the-uk.co.uk/pics/g2/1g/1g45l.jpg
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curtaintwitcher
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Post by curtaintwitcher on Oct 13, 2016 12:10:09 GMT 7
...spouse just made large deposits into his 3 local mutual funds: he thinks the stock market may be at or near a bottom...I hope he's right... Very risk call if they are Thai equity mutual funds. There's always the possibility he's right of course. But I think there's a higher probability he's not. Also if he's wrong and events really take a turn for the worse, I'd say he stands to lose more than he stands to gain at this point, short term at least. I hope your decorating budget doesn't depend on the money ...spouse is in for the very long term (10+ years) and only on a buy-and-hold basis: so, no threat to fresh flowers and trendy throw pillows...
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buddahas
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Post by buddahas on Oct 13, 2016 12:36:42 GMT 7
You mean to say the market has gone ''bottoms up.'' May not be the right timing and things for curtaintwitcher and spouse. impressive. How did you know I was the ass man?
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Post by Fletchsmile on Oct 13, 2016 14:13:10 GMT 7
Yes the Bualuand Top 10 fund has been a consistenly good performer over the years. It's much narrower in focus than most Thai equity funds, but that's where their stock picking comes in. I've looked at investing in it myself. The main reason I haven't is that my current providers don't offer it, as it's only available thru Bangkok Bank/ Bualuang. Otherwise would probably hold some. The quote from the article above sticks out. There's a fair point that longer term this may look in hindsight like a buying opportunity. I think 5 years from now the market will likely be higher. I don't think we've hit real panic selling yet though. The risk is definitely difficult to measure and the outlook uncertain. Very difficult to put a number on what value the market would be when the domestic events referred to in the article actually happen. So short term I wouldn't want to be making calls on the upside. Long term I wouldn't object. As for valuations, if someone is modelling forward looking valuations, based on future earnings and expectations then they may be able to make that call. On historic valuations though, the market is overvalued in terms of P/E etc. Historic P/E ratio is more like 15. Now we are curently on 20+. So it needs those future expectations and projections to actually happen. Without them the market is vulnerable anyway. Add in the other factor mentioned...
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Oct 13, 2016 14:26:50 GMT 7
When events happen the stock market response is often not what one expects. Just looking at America:
- Hitler invades Poland: Dow up 9.5%.
- Pearl Harbour: Down down less than 3%.
- Cuban Missile Crisis: Down less than 2%.
- Also in 1962, Kennedy said he didn't like US Steel. Down almost 30%.
- September 11th: Markets fell, but made it all back within 2 months.
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Oct 13, 2016 14:42:49 GMT 7
On historic valuations though, the market is overvalued in terms of P/E etc. Historic P/E ratio is more like 15. Here's a quick chart of the SET P/E Ratio since 1975. Attachment DeletedI made it thinking it might provide some enlightenment. It doesn't, really. It just makes me wish for the days when the P/E ratio was 5. I think it's fair to say, though, that we're near peak territory. Edit: got start date hopelessly wrong. Now fixed.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Oct 13, 2016 14:46:40 GMT 7
I hear you. For me I think the latter senario of fall and then recover in a few weeks/ months is most likely.
I'm also comforted to an extent that the market has fallen over 10% already.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Oct 13, 2016 14:54:35 GMT 7
On historic valuations though, the market is overvalued in terms of P/E etc. Historic P/E ratio is more like 15. Here's a quick chart of the SET P/E Ratio since 2015. I made it thinking it might provide some enlightenment. It doesn't, really. It just makes me wish for the days when the P/E ratio was 5. I think it's fair to say, though, that we're near peak territory. For me it supports the key message of on a historic basis, P/E 20+ is expensive. Definitely clear its above the average of around 14-15. Levels above 20 aren't sustained for lengthy periods and its had quite a good run at those levels so far. So before long either earnings have to improve or there'll be further correction. Something has to give
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curtaintwitcher
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Post by curtaintwitcher on Oct 13, 2016 14:55:28 GMT 7
I'm also comforted to an extent that the market has fallen over 10% already. ...that was spouse's threshold for investment action...further declines, spouse feels, will be erased fairly rapidly once the dust has settled...sounds like a reasonable scenario to me...
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buddahas
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Post by buddahas on Oct 13, 2016 15:49:29 GMT 7
Have you discussed with a spouse that in 10 years he might not have a country?
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