Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2017 17:13:50 GMT 7
I'm anti-Brexit however I don't agree that the pound will be as weak as lannabirth suggests for that long. I do reckon we are in trouble until around 2021. Macron has his hands full with France, and a few other European Socialist Republics will face a reckoning soon. The UK has absorbed millions of young Europeans which has benefited these republic's. Without the UK their youth unemployment figure would be at revolution stages. What's mental about Brexit is the elderly voted against allowing hard-working youngsters into the country. Contrary to opinion, we are taking the cream out of the European youth pool - the genuine "on yer bike," types. They will drive our economy while the elderly retire to care homes or the grave. Presumably you picked 2021 to allow the balance to begin to shift between younger and older age groups? If we're going to Brexit and it seems we will, our economy will shrink by some figure up to or around 20% and that wont do anything positive for our ability to service existing debt nor eliminate the deficit - reducing the ratio of old to young will help relieve strain on social services and NHS and also increase GDP marginally but it still only like changing from eighth to seventh gear when you're still half way up the mountain. By 2021 the markets will have taken a sustainable position on post-Brexit Britain. The shocks should be worked out by then . By 2030 the UK will overtake Germany in economic terms. ONLY IF - we have freedom of movement. The majority of EUROPE states are crapping themselves about BREXIT. Don't be kidded, the UK is the employment engine of Europe. Countries like Spain can'take do without us. |
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Mosha
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Post by Mosha on Jun 28, 2017 18:54:31 GMT 7
My strategy and what I'd suggest to others is to try and put yourself in a position where the exchange rate isn't that important to you and won't cause you problems if it goes against you. That likely includes building some THB assets. Then if it goes in your favour that's just a bonus Short term is always difficult to call. So many factors - some foreseen others often not - it becomes something of a lottery. Everyone will tell you though after the event how they "saw it coming" and it was "obviously" undervalued/overvalued or range bound  Mid-Long term I'd say GBP will continue to weaken vs THB but there'll be bumps along the way. A couple of weeks back we transferred some GBP to Thailand in connection with our house purchase. First time in ages I've transferred GBP here. Rate was just over THB 43, and that was after asking the bank to see if they could improve on the standard TT rate they first offered, which they usually do and did again this time. Now if I compare that to the 70-ish we got 10 years or so back when we also bought property, I'm happy to have got the long term trend right. But at the same time 43+ feels a poor rate The rate we got on the day was just that to me though. The rate on the day. I didn't think it worth the hassle of trying to wait for a bit better rate, as it could just as easily go against. Just bite the bullet and go for it. Peace of mind and certainty on what we're getting rather than hope and see. A lot to be said for just doing it and moving on. On the other hand waiting to see for 44 and watching it go to 42,41,40,39... could be stressful knowing what you should have done. I'd also add that GBP was less than 10% of the property we bought. Most of the money will be from THB or SGD anyway, which again goes back to trying to put yourself in the situation where it doesn't matter too much. It made it so we could be confident of just bring in the GBP when needed and without too much worry on the rate at the time. Would have preferred 44 or 50 but that's life  I self identify as a 66 year old, now give me my state pension. |
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Post by Soutpeel on Jun 28, 2017 19:31:26 GMT 7
Presumably you picked 2021 to allow the balance to begin to shift between younger and older age groups? If we're going to Brexit and it seems we will, our economy will shrink by some figure up to or around 20% and that wont do anything positive for our ability to service existing debt nor eliminate the deficit - reducing the ratio of old to young will help relieve strain on social services and NHS and also increase GDP marginally but it still only like changing from eighth to seventh gear when you're still half way up the mountain. By 2021 the markets will have taken a sustainable position on post-Brexit Britain. The shocks should be worked out by then . By 2030 the UK will overtake Germany in economic terms. ONLY IF - we have freedom of movement. The majority of EUROPE states are crapping themselves about BREXIT. Don't be kidded, the UK is the employment engine of Europe. Countries like Spain can'take do without us. I would suggest the UK cant do with out the Spanish...one can never have enough Spanish waiters from Barcelona to slap around |
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Mosha
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Post by Mosha on Jun 29, 2017 20:05:21 GMT 7
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jun 29, 2017 22:01:09 GMT 7
Urgh, messy! The Pound strengthens on the forecast of an imminent rate rise, logically it should have weakened on that news since any rate increase will also increase borrowing costs for everyone, including government. So the UK consumer thinks that interest rates are going to rise tomorrow therefore they borrow more today, hence the (small) surge in mortgage lending (at the lower rate). But credit card lending is odd, unless that's just Joe Consumer borrowing off plastic to get by? But banks have been warned to increase their tier one reserves hence the pressure is going to build on existing loan books, especially if Joe Consumer doesn't get a pay increase, and why would they. It's all jolly exciting, is it not! |
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Post by rgs2001uk on Jun 29, 2017 23:02:16 GMT 7
^^^ I was under the impression, the pommie peso rose because investors may get a better return on their money, and money would flow into the UK, ergo pommie peso is more attractive.
Anyway to discuss the title of this thread, what exactly is a "weak pound"?
As an expat who has spent more years outside of the Nanny State than in it, its just one of those things we have to endure, if you cant handle it, head back to the bosom of mother england, where a quid is still a quid.
For weak pound, I remember the days of 36 baht to the pommie peso, the other day i noticed 45 baht, weakness what weakness?
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jun 30, 2017 4:06:04 GMT 7
^^^ I was under the impression, the pommie peso rose because investors may get a better return on their money, and money would flow into the UK, ergo pommie peso is more attractive. Anyway to discuss the title of this thread, what exactly is a "weak pound"? As an expat who has spent more years outside of the Nanny State than in it, its just one of those things we have to endure, if you cant handle it, head back to the bosom of mother england, where a quid is still a quid. For weak pound, I remember the days of 36 baht to the pommie peso, the other day i noticed 45 baht, weakness what weakness? That's the theory true enough.as rates go up new investment money will just pour in. But you have to wonder if investors will really do that given that an uncertain outcome from Brexit is looming and USD investments are looking so much more certain. And whilst investment money is always useful it doesn't help the man in the street with his borrowing costs nor the government with theirs. |
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smokie36
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Post by smokie36 on Jun 30, 2017 4:06:53 GMT 7
I decided to up my pay by 40% in the end since the scum tories thought they would screw over all the health workers.
A middle finger to them all.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jun 30, 2017 16:40:13 GMT 7
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2017 18:04:33 GMT 7
Aye, terrible. Without researching, I wonder how much cash is being hoarded these days And I wonder if the savings rate is being affected by the mountain of money being used to buy properties with cash. A staggering amount of new properties are being bought outright because the interest rate on savings is so low. |
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jun 30, 2017 18:44:12 GMT 7
Indeed there is no real reason for banks to increase interest rates to attract funds because they have an oversupply already, thanks to QE around the world. The only reason to increase rates is to cool a heated economy and to stem inflation.
But I'm not sure if that mountain of money used for cash property purchases is regarded as savings, I think it must be something else otherwise the savings numbers would be much higher, more likely it's regarded as investment funds I would think.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Jun 30, 2017 21:33:24 GMT 7
^^^^ I know a guy and his mrs used to come to Thailand every year with the interest paid on their savings.
Rates from the bank plunged, better returns to be had in the housing market, couple of BTL purchases made.
Guy and his mrs no longer come to these shores, houses bought have doubled in value and still pick up a healthy income in rent.
Bottom line, newbees cant get on the housing ladder.
Whether its regarded as savings or a regular income is another issue.
These days I aint concerned about capital growth, I want capital protection and a regular income stream.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2017 18:20:20 GMT 7
Indeed there is no real reason for banks to increase interest rates to attract funds because they have an oversupply already, thanks to QE around the world. The only reason to increase rates is to cool a heated economy and to stem inflation. But I'm not sure if that mountain of money used for cash property purchases is regarded as savings, I think it must be something else otherwise the savings numbers would be much higher, more likely it's regarded as investment funds I would think. To clarify, my point is that the savings rate is artificially low as people are removing cash from banks and putting it into property. www.ft.com/content/807ea5ee-34a4-11e7-99bd-13beb0903fa3?mhq5j=e1 A lot of this money is flowing out of banks as it's diminishing in real terms. According to an article I read earlier, 40% of houses are being paid in cash. |
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Post by rgs2001uk on Jul 1, 2017 22:46:16 GMT 7
Indeed there is no real reason for banks to increase interest rates to attract funds because they have an oversupply already, thanks to QE around the world. The only reason to increase rates is to cool a heated economy and to stem inflation. But I'm not sure if that mountain of money used for cash property purchases is regarded as savings, I think it must be something else otherwise the savings numbers would be much higher, more likely it's regarded as investment funds I would think. To clarify, my point is that the savings rate is artificially low as people are removing cash from banks and putting it into property. www.ft.com/content/807ea5ee-34a4-11e7-99bd-13beb0903fa3?mhq5j=e1 A lot of this money is flowing out of banks as it's diminishing in real terms. According to an article I read earlier, 40% of houses are being paid in cash. As I mentioned earlier, its money that isnt flowing into the economy. Bars etc shut up shop in Thailand, no tourists, bars in the UK going out of business every week, no customers. Make your own pension arrangements, in whom do you place your trust?, for me it for sure aint the UK Gov't or bankers |
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 2, 2017 6:19:31 GMT 7
Indeed there is no real reason for banks to increase interest rates to attract funds because they have an oversupply already, thanks to QE around the world. The only reason to increase rates is to cool a heated economy and to stem inflation. But I'm not sure if that mountain of money used for cash property purchases is regarded as savings, I think it must be something else otherwise the savings numbers would be much higher, more likely it's regarded as investment funds I would think. To clarify, my point is that the savings rate is artificially low as people are removing cash from banks and putting it into property. www.ft.com/content/807ea5ee-34a4-11e7-99bd-13beb0903fa3?mhq5j=e1 A lot of this money is flowing out of banks as it's diminishing in real terms. According to an article I read earlier, 40% of houses are being paid in cash. Yes agreed, the value of money sitting in bank accounts today in the UK AND in Thailand is being eroded by inflation. As a result people are being forced to take on more risk and do things with that money they wouldn't ordinarily do, buy a house, invest in the stock market, spend it etc., the alternative is to see it become worthless over time. But (to be clear also) that is because of the effect of low savings rates and is not a direct cause of them. Of course it's true that banks have less incentive to offer higher savings rates when they are already awash with cash but generally speaking savings rates are a reflection of central bank rates which in turn is a reflection of the state of an economy at any point in time. I do think people today are more wary about keeping money in banks and at times such as now when the impetus for a crash is quite high, people will simply spend that money. Another part of that mindset is people think they will be able to borrow at low rates forever hence if they need money they can always get a loan. There's two things wrong with that thinking, the first is that people get older and become less able to borrow at attractive rates and secondly, rates wont stay low forever - I took out my first UK mortgage in 1985 at a whopping 18%. |
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