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Post by Fletchsmile on Aug 11, 2015 22:03:10 GMT 7
Have held Apple stock for quite a few years. When it looks expensive I sell some, when cheap I buy it. Timing is never perfect, but whenever you're holding it you've the comfort level that its Apple's brand, with great products and mountains of cash. At the moment my holdings are mainly re-investment of Apple profits taken over the years. It does look tempting though at these levels. Current and forward P/E's both only 13.X - well under S&P averages. What do you think? www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US |
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Post by Fletchsmile on Aug 11, 2015 22:04:08 GMT 7
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Aug 12, 2015 9:02:34 GMT 7
A couple of points: (1) Apple has an enormous amount of long term debt, $47,419 million which is vastly more than its net current assets at $5,668 million. (2) Apple is dependent upon creating a new hit product again and again and again. It's inevitable that they are at some point going to fail, particularly as competition intensifies. They are also going to be overtaken by technology and need to move on to a different product/products. Consider the Sony Walkman. It was a great invention. Sold amazingly well. New and upgraded versions were released every few weeks. It moved with technology, from cassette tape to CD to mini-CD, to .mp3. But where is it now? Clearly Sony has survived, but then it is a much more diversified company than Apple. The shares may go a little higher, but in the long term I can only see downside. Incidentally, if you want another reason not to buy Apple, then the fact that Jim Cramer tipped it a few days ago is pretty convincing. www.thestreet.com/story/13250111/1/cramer--this-is-why-you-hold-apple-stock.html |
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Post by Fletchsmile on Aug 12, 2015 13:16:56 GMT 7
A couple of points: (1) Apple has an enormous amount of long term debt, $47,419 million which is vastly more than its net current assets at $5,668 million. (2) Apple is dependent upon creating a new hit product again and again and again. It's inevitable that they are at some point going to fail, particularly as competition intensifies. They are also going to be overtaken by technology and need to move on to a different product/products. Consider the Sony Walkman. It was a great invention. Sold amazingly well. New and upgraded versions were released every few weeks. It moved with technology, from cassette tape to CD to mini-CD, to .mp3. But where is it now? Clearly Sony has survived, but then it is a much more diversified company than Apple. The shares may go a little higher, but in the long term I can only see downside. Incidentally, if you want another reason not to buy Apple, then the fact that Jim Cramer tipped it a few days ago is pretty convincing. www.thestreet.com/story/13250111/1/cramer--this-is-why-you-hold-apple-stock.htmlAlso need to add in the long term securities. Although classified as "long term" most of them would be highly liquid. As at 27 June these are $168,145 million which dwarfs the long term debt. As per its US form 10-Q which shows the fin statements at 27 June files.shareholder.com/downloads/AAPL/555934490x0x840568/7616A2CA-9254-40E4-92BC-3815B1155018/Q3_2015_Form_10-Q_As-filed_.PDF Of that $168,145 million in investments: $40,367 million are US treasuries, $98,925 are Corporate securities, others being MBS etc The long term debt is also not that expensive - effective rate of ball park 4.X% on 30 year terms, but for 5 years it's under 1%. So basically just decent Treasury management. They were actually flush with cash so have moved money to US treasuries and corp securities for the extra yield as no point all sat in cash earning nothing. These investments are ball park 4x what they have in long term debt. Some long term debt makes sense for liquidity purposes as well as an efficient capital base, tax reasons etc. Net the long term investments (US Tsy and Corp secs) off their own long term debt and they have about $120 billion effective cash surplus from these items alone - just the way their Tsy department has managed it. (Wouldn't mind that job myself  ) |
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Post by Fletchsmile on Aug 12, 2015 13:22:58 GMT 7
I like the Jim Cramer comments. Thanks. Always find him entertaining. His quote is basically also how I look at the stock. I own it from retained profits now, then just adjust my ownership up and down a bit depending on valuations, but keeping a stake throughout. The pullback is nice for me though as I sold some last month in the 130's so can but back now in 110's |
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Post by Fletchsmile on Aug 13, 2015 22:46:41 GMT 7
So couldn't resist taking an extra bite and added some more tonight. Couldn't really resist. Current P/E 13.3 compared to rest of US valuations looks good to me... Wonder if Forrest Gump is stil holding.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Oct 29, 2015 15:38:20 GMT 7
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Post by Fletchsmile on May 10, 2017 21:16:14 GMT 7
Good year for Apple shares up 33% YTD. Market cap now $800 billion+ I've sold most of my individual US stocks these days because of the withholding tax I lose and basically I can't be bothered with individual US shares anyway. I've made an exception for Apple though and don't feel like parting with it. Especially with interest rates so low so the div rate of 1.6% exceeds what I get on US cash. Fortress balance sheet and P/E is still only around 18 current and 17 forward despite share price gains this year ============================== Apple Becomes First U.S. Company to Top $800 Billion Value-Stock hits another record on optimism for next iPhone -Shares have climbed 33 percent this year, helped by buybacks Apple Price Target Hiked to $202 by Drexel Hamilton Apple Inc. became the first U.S. company with a market value of more $800 billion as investors bet the next iPhone will spur a resurgence in sales. The stock rose 1 percent Tuesday to close at $153.99 in New York, giving it a market capitalization of about $803 billion. The shares have gained 33 percent since the start of the year, helped by a buyback program that Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook extended to total $210 billion last week, from $175 billion last year. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-09/apple-becomes-first-u-s-company-to-cross-800-billion-valuation |
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smokie36
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Post by smokie36 on May 11, 2017 5:22:17 GMT 7
I was going to say something about apple phone users but it might be dunking season on here oopsie....  Somerset arrrrrr. |
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Post by Deleted on May 11, 2017 5:53:28 GMT 7
I was going to say something about apple phone users but it might be dunking season on here oopsie.... Somerset arrrrrr. I thought you were going to say you were investing your money in apples !  |
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Post by Fletchsmile on May 11, 2017 8:52:50 GMT 7
I was going to say something about apple phone users but it might be dunking season on here oopsie.... Somerset arrrrrr. I thought you were going to say you were investing your money in apples ! Mr.Toad invests quite a bit in cider every time we go out. Does that count? |
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Post by Deleted on May 11, 2017 9:11:55 GMT 7
^ Good man ! A wonderful drink of Biblical proportions ! I vaguely remember for a time in the late seventies everyone was drinking Scrumpy cider, which came in beautiful glass bottles with a ring shape handle on one side. A great drink which I hold responsible for fogging my long term memory.  |
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Oct 10, 2022 12:46:48 GMT 7
Incidentally, if you want another reason not to buy Apple, then the fact that Jim Cramer tipped it a few days ago is pretty convincing. And now those of us who consider Cramer to be a worthless clown can invest against him. Matthew Tuttle has launched an ETF that shorts Cramer's recommendations. They previously did a similar thing betting against Kathy Wood (of ARK notoriety), and it's proved highly lucrative. Money doubled in just over a year. www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/tired-mad-money-picks-etf-shorts-jim-cramer |
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