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Post by paddyjenkins on Apr 5, 2015 10:17:08 GMT 7
Any ideas, questions on good stocks to buy or sell, or general comments on markets?
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ATF
Crazy Mango
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Post by ATF on Apr 5, 2015 10:29:21 GMT 7
Any ideas, questions on good stocks to buy or sell, or general comments on markets? What markets interest you? Do you have an online trading account? The only trading action I see ATM is Forex.
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Post by paddyjenkins on Apr 5, 2015 13:55:00 GMT 7
Hi, I have many accounts. I trade stocks and bonds, sometimes commodities, sometimes FX. Most of the markets I look at are developed, not really EM.
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The Arrow
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Post by The Arrow on Apr 5, 2015 14:16:46 GMT 7
I've still got my bank account I had when I was at school. Had a cheque book once.
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ATF
Crazy Mango
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Post by ATF on Apr 5, 2015 14:41:55 GMT 7
Hi, I have many accounts. I trade stocks and bonds, sometimes commodities, sometimes FX. Most of the markets I look at are developed, not really EM. There is a lot of risk attached to Europe and the US now. I think the US will become a good short sell but not just now. Europe one the other hand should become a good buy but there is the EUR risk. Personally I'm waiting for GBP to hit $1.43 and then buying.
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Post by paddyjenkins on Apr 5, 2015 15:12:19 GMT 7
Big election risks in the UK, so its possible you will get your level. Im short GBP calls. Agree risks of an equity sell off in the US, but I would rather buy if it falls than short. what I don't like about Europe is its a consensus buy, but I do like some of the big European companies like Nestle, Novartis, BMW etc. I am beginning to like some soft commodities, because USD is strong enough and droughts in the US etc.
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ATF
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Post by ATF on Apr 5, 2015 16:47:44 GMT 7
Commodities are at the mercy of the USD. Banks from the PIIGS interest me like Bank of Ireland and Banco Popular among others. The bigger companies are mostly priced in.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2015 1:27:25 GMT 7
For more long term keep your eyes on LED manufacturers such as Cree or Phillips (or which ever sister company makes the LED cells for Phillips, that you will have to research..could be general electric I'm not too sure).
These new high powered cells are as bright as halogen and use roughly 1/10th of the power and don't generate nowhere near as much heat.
They will be EVERYWHERE in the not too distant future from streetlights, football stadiums, to aircraft.
The 2 companys above are the leaders in this technology.
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Post by paddyjenkins on Apr 6, 2015 16:27:30 GMT 7
Philips is very big....will this LED thing be able to make a big difference?
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ATF
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Post by ATF on Apr 6, 2015 17:39:06 GMT 7
Philips is very big....will this LED thing be able to make a big difference? I agree with you there Paddy whilst LED biz should be good these companies are so big it's a drop in the ocean.
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Post by paddyjenkins on Apr 6, 2015 21:02:02 GMT 7
Its good to think about all possibilities...thats how to find that needle in the haystack
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Post by Fletchsmile on Apr 7, 2015 21:53:43 GMT 7
Hey a thread from Paddyjenkins. Does that mean I can insult you this time round? Have been a bit quiet on the investment front myself. I did just close a pleasant quarter on SET50 options though. Last month I also maxed out my RMFs to reduce my Thai tax. For shares, I've continued to ease off for UK and US. US in particular looks overvalued, so I've reduced my holdings back down to mainly long term holdings of a US index tracker fund, a small companies fund, and a few decent yielding blue chip shares to collect the dividend yields. So nothing new added. UK was just a bit of profit taking, and nothing new added as the markets were hitting all time highs. Doesn't look as overly valued as US. Have to say I like the look of Russia though. Still unpopular, but picking up a bit, and one of the best performers this year after a very poor 2014. While other markets have too much good news built in with little more to add Russia has a lot of bad news in, so something good has to happen at some point. I dipped my toes in last year and bought some of JPM's Russia securities investment trust. It's been a rocky ride and will continue to be. Never going to be easy timing that, but with a P/E of around 7 or so, there's some good long term value in there for patient people who can ride out the ups and downs. Anyway, nice to see you around on here Cheers Fletch
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Post by paddyjenkins on Apr 8, 2015 18:49:36 GMT 7
Hi. Insult all you want, I probably deserve it.
Value is hard to find these days. But the US seems out of favour for now, international better. Maybe parts of Asia. My question about Russia is do they have any good companies to own? Also, did the Micex really fall in Ruble terms? Id rather pick up local Russian govt bonds if they fall again. I bought Korea recently but sold a couple of days ago. Seems to me this a market where you buy dips and sell spikes, stay nimble. If it crashes then buy and hold again.
Or/and, renormalize what value means? Maybe pre QE PEs now mean very little.
Today is FOMC mins...I will watch for a word or two out of place and see if tbond bonds get a point or two cheaper...shallow dips are all I need.
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ATF
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Post by ATF on Apr 8, 2015 19:11:37 GMT 7
Paddy the only sure game in town are currencies ATM. They are moving by 0.50-1% per day.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Apr 10, 2015 23:19:26 GMT 7
Hi. Insult all you want, I probably deserve it.
Value is hard to find these days. But the US seems out of favour for now, international better. Maybe parts of Asia. My question about Russia is do they have any good companies to own? Also, did the Micex really fall in Ruble terms? Id rather pick up local Russian govt bonds if they fall again. I bought Korea recently but sold a couple of days ago. Seems to me this a market where you buy dips and sell spikes, stay nimble. If it crashes then buy and hold again.
Or/and, renormalize what value means? Maybe pre QE PEs now mean very little.
Today is FOMC mins...I will watch for a word or two out of place and see if tbond bonds get a point or two cheaper...shallow dips are all I need. When you look at Russian funds, a lot of the same names come up like: Gazprom, Lukoil, Magnet, certain banks, often a high concentration in their top 10 holdings. Some of these are tradeable via American ADRs or other exchanges, but on the whole not easy to trade individually, which is why I went the fund route. You're right that MICEX denominated in rouble went down only about 7% last calendar year. From peak to trough though the drop was quite substantial. Also when you factor in the exchange rate if you bought a fund in another currency other than roubles - most people - you got hit hard in currency terms. Hence the perception of higher losses. I bought for longer term, but after further falls initially - was always going to be difficult to time - they're now in positive territory. Another interesting point is that while the Russian economy is having a lot of hassles, many of the resource / oil sector have their revenue mainly in USD, given oil is priced and traded in USD. So although the price of a barrel of oil halved, their revenue in rouble terms held up much better, because of the depreciation vs USD. i.e revenue fell in USD terms, but wasn't hit as badly in rouble terms as USD bought more roubles. For those that then have cost bases mainly in roubles/ local currencies they still hold up well as companies. This is something the US in particular fails to mention when they are trying to put down and isolate Russia, they don't want people believing maybe it isn't so bad. Another key point is debt levels, those having borrowed in USD from global markets will get hit hard on currency conversions to finance the debt - again the US focuses on this - those without though probably still just as sound, so with USD income, rouble cost base and low debt, should be some good companies still. BTW On Thai bonds, I don't think the yields are attractive anyway, even on corporates. One area that's a bit better though is newer Basel III Tier2 sub-debt from Thai banks. Domestically yields over 5% for say 10 yr NC5. Not fantastic but an improvement on Thai treasuries or bank interest. Sure there are higher yields in other countries, but often higher risk too. Cheers Fletch
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