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Post by rgs2001uk on Apr 11, 2015 0:09:11 GMT 7
Hi. Insult all you want, I probably deserve it.
Value is hard to find these days. But the US seems out of favour for now, international better. Maybe parts of Asia. My question about Russia is do they have any good companies to own? Also, did the Micex really fall in Ruble terms? Id rather pick up local Russian govt bonds if they fall again. I bought Korea recently but sold a couple of days ago. Seems to me this a market where you buy dips and sell spikes, stay nimble. If it crashes then buy and hold again.
Or/and, renormalize what value means? Maybe pre QE PEs now mean very little.
Today is FOMC mins...I will watch for a word or two out of place and see if tbond bonds get a point or two cheaper...shallow dips are all I need. When you look at Russian funds, a lot of the same names come up like: Gazprom, Lukoil, Magnet, certain banks, often a high concentration in their top 10 holdings. Some of these are tradeable via American ADRs or other exchanges, but on the whole not easy to trade individually, which is why I went the fund route. You're right that MICEX denominated in rouble went down only about 7% last calendar year. From peak to trough though the drop was quite substantial. Also when you factor in the exchange rate if you bought a fund in another currency other than roubles - most people - you got hit hard in currency terms. Hence the perception of higher losses. I bought for longer term, but after further falls initially - was always going to be difficult to time - they're now in positive territory. Another interesting point is that while the Russian economy is having a lot of hassles, many of the resource / oil sector have their revenue mainly in USD, given oil is priced and traded in USD. So although the price of a barrel of oil halved, their revenue in rouble terms held up much better, because of the depreciation vs USD. i.e revenue fell in USD terms, but wasn't hit as badly in rouble terms as USD bought more roubles. For those that then have cost bases mainly in roubles/ local currencies they still hold up well as companies. This is something the US in particular fails to mention when they are trying to put down and isolate Russia, they don't want people believing maybe it isn't so bad. Another key point is debt levels, those having borrowed in USD from global markets will get hit hard on currency conversions to finance the debt - again the US focuses on this - those without though probably still just as sound, so with USD income, rouble cost base and low debt, should be some good companies still. BTW On Thai bonds, I don't think the yields are attractive anyway, even on corporates. One area that's a bit better though is newer Basel III Tier2 sub-debt from Thai banks. Domestically yields over 5% for say 10 yr NC5. Not fantastic but an improvement on Thai treasuries or bank interest. Sure there are higher yields in other countries, but often higher risk too. Cheers Fletch Sure there are higher yields in other countries, but often higher risk too.I remember years ago an expat telling me he was going to retire to some Mickey Mouse country paying 15% pa on his interest, what he failed to understand, his currency had lost mega %%%%%. I hear Zimbabwe is the place to be,
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Post by Fletchsmile on Apr 20, 2015 19:41:15 GMT 7
StanChart Singapore's weekly market views 17 April 2015, including stocks, currencies etc, below: Global equities’ breakout to record high suggests rally likely to extend. The broadest measure of global stocks broke out into a record high over the past week as China stocks joined in the rally. We expect the rally to continue. China’s Hong Kong-listed shares are likely to outperform in the coming weeks, erasing their 20% discount to mainland peers, after authorities made it easier for China’s mutual funds to buy HK shares. Other markets highly dependent on China also rebounded, with South Korea’s KOSPI Index rising to its highest since 2011 and Brazil’s benchmark gaining 12% in the past month. An 11% surge in oil prices boosted energy stocks. We continue to prefer DM stocks, especially in Europe and Japan (FX-hedged). In Asia, we prefer China (H-shares), India, Taiwan and Thailand. European equities to get earnings boost. European equity valuations have risen to a 10-year high of around 17-times expected 2015 earnings as the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index set a new record. However, we are starting to see signs of positive earnings revisions. European companies have significant scope to boost profit margins as revenue picks up with improving growth. EUR weakness continues to be a tailwind. www.sc.com/priority/en/documents/Weekly-Market-View-17-Apr-2015-PrB.pdf
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Post by Fletchsmile on Apr 21, 2015 16:56:27 GMT 7
When you look at Russian funds, a lot of the same names come up like: Gazprom, Lukoil, Magnet, certain banks, often a high concentration in their top 10 holdings. Some of these are tradeable via American ADRs or other exchanges, but on the whole not easy to trade individually, which is why I went the fund route. You're right that MICEX denominated in rouble went down only about 7% last calendar year. From peak to trough though the drop was quite substantial. Also when you factor in the exchange rate if you bought a fund in another currency other than roubles - most people - you got hit hard in currency terms. Hence the perception of higher losses. I bought for longer term, but after further falls initially - was always going to be difficult to time - they're now in positive territory. Another interesting point is that while the Russian economy is having a lot of hassles, many of the resource / oil sector have their revenue mainly in USD, given oil is priced and traded in USD. So although the price of a barrel of oil halved, their revenue in rouble terms held up much better, because of the depreciation vs USD. i.e revenue fell in USD terms, but wasn't hit as badly in rouble terms as USD bought more roubles. For those that then have cost bases mainly in roubles/ local currencies they still hold up well as companies. This is something the US in particular fails to mention when they are trying to put down and isolate Russia, they don't want people believing maybe it isn't so bad. Another key point is debt levels, those having borrowed in USD from global markets will get hit hard on currency conversions to finance the debt - again the US focuses on this - those without though probably still just as sound, so with USD income, rouble cost base and low debt, should be some good companies still. BTW On Thai bonds, I don't think the yields are attractive anyway, even on corporates. One area that's a bit better though is newer Basel III Tier2 sub-debt from Thai banks. Domestically yields over 5% for say 10 yr NC5. Not fantastic but an improvement on Thai treasuries or bank interest. Sure there are higher yields in other countries, but often higher risk too. Cheers Fletch Sure there are higher yields in other countries, but often higher risk too.I remember years ago an expat telling me he was going to retire to some Mickey Mouse country paying 15% pa on his interest, what he failed to understand, his currency had lost mega %%%%%. I hear Zimbabwe is the place to be, Perhaps he moved on to Greece with their cartoon characters? Hercules, Ariel etc, looking at today's Bloomberg: Greece’s three-year yield jumped 193 basis points, or 1.93 percentage points, to 28.7 percent yesterday. Credit-default swaps suggested about an 81 percent chance of Greece being unable to repay its debt in five years, compared with about 67 percent at the start of March, according to CMA data.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Apr 21, 2015 16:59:10 GMT 7
Have to say many of the resource stocks I hold have took a beating. looks like interest is picking up in them though, as worried about other markets being overvalued people are looking around for companies that might be undervalued: ------------------------------------------- Investors Who See ‘Froth’ in Market Go All In for OilJoseph Gladbach and his fellow bankers at Jefferies Group field three to five calls a day from investors eager to park their millions in energy stocks or bonds in the worst down cycle in 30 years. They’re no dummies, Gladbach says. One of the biggest mysteries of the oil market crash is why the money hasn’t dried up. The collapse in crude prices was supposed to devastate companies and spook investors after wiping more than $200 billion off the balance sheets of U.S. and Canadian producers. It didn’t. As industry luminaries gather at the IHS CeraWeek Energy Conference in Houston this week to ponder the implications of $50-a-barrel crude, the money keeps piling into oil, with hedge funds, buyout firms and asset managers rushing to claim a spot at the table. “There is just so much money,” said Gladbach, who noted that more than $100 billion has been raised and set aside for energy investments by the likes of Blackstone Group LP and Carlyle Group LP. continues www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-20/investors-who-see-froth-in-market-go-all-in-for-oil
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