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Climate change 'will create world's biggest refugee crisis' - Experts warn refugees could number tens of millions in the next decade, and call for a new legal framework to protect the most vulnerable

Tens of millions of people will be forced from their homes by climate change in the next decade, creating the biggest refugee crisis the world has ever seen, according to a new report.

Senior US military and security experts have told the Environmental Justice Foundation (EJF) study that the number of climate refugees will dwarf those that have fled the Syrian conflict, bringing huge challenges to Europe.

“If Europe thinks they have a problem with migration today … wait 20 years,” said retired US military corps brigadier general Stephen Cheney. “See what happens when climate change drives people out of Africa – the Sahel [sub-Saharan area] especially – and we’re talking now not just one or two million, but 10 or 20 [million]. They are not going to south Africa, they are going across the Mediterranean.”: www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/02/climate-change-will-create-worlds-biggest-refugee-crisis

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Climate change and extreme weather driving migration - For the first time, a University of Otago researcher has shown that not only are the effects of climate change influencing people's decision to migrate, it is actually a more important driver than income and political freedom at the origin country.

Dr Wesselbaum is particularly interested in the effects of temperature and weather-related disasters, and how migration responds over time to changes in its driving forces. Including temperatures and disasters is important, as research has shown that people understand the effects of climate change through changes in local weather patterns rather than from changes in temperature.

"This gives a valuable insight into whether climate change does influence immigration, and by how much; looking at these figures over a long time period is the key to understanding the effects of climate change," he says.

Dr Wesselbaum amassed data from each country on significant weather events and temperatures and data on immigration from 1980 to 2014, then modelled immigration flows over that time to determine patterns and identify significant factors.

That work showed events like storms, floods, heatwaves and droughts have different effects on migration. In particular, temperature rise is having a major influence in immigration decisions – intuitively, people are moving away from the negative effects of climate change. He has also shown that single or unforeseen events, such as storms, can have a long-lasting impact on a country's immigration figure. Most interestingly, after an increase in temperatures, migration decreases for roughly four years before it increases for about 10 years.: phys.org/news/2017-10-climate-extreme-weather-migration.html

I don't agree with your pensioner comment.  UK pensioners are doing well.  Even my proto-communist Tory hating pensioner uncle agreed with that a couple of weeks ago, along with every other pensioner in the room. 

We do need to support ex-servicemen better.  They should be given priority for jobs in the prison service, NHS etc, as well as priority housing. 

I fear the recent veterans are far more psychologically damaged than anticipated. That has to be looked at too 

I believe a lot, especially when told by an Australian Immigration Official sitting next to you on a long flight, followed by extrapolation based on the 'insider' info.

Still, maybe the figures are a wee bit 'expanded'. Anyway, shows why not bombing too many parts of the Middle East might be helpful, some dedicated and maybe even enforced local education in Africa to keep people there. Fence off Brexit, uhm, urh, Britain I mean. Will all help to keep numbers down.

Tongue-in-cheeky