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Post by Fletchsmile on May 26, 2015 21:13:35 GMT 7
Been a tough couple of years for the Aussie since their dollar crashed thru parity against USD. About two years ago 1 AUD was worth more than 1 USD. Today 1 AUD buys around 0.77 USD.
vs THB AUD it has gone from over 30 to around 25, picking up a little now to about 26.
So what's your thoughts? Is it Australia's turn to be driving tuk-tuks, and for Aussie tourists here to moan about the price of beer and accessories? Would there be anything worth buying in Australia if you converted your baht or bath?
Where do you think AUD is heading?
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me
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Post by me on May 26, 2015 22:11:33 GMT 7
Been a tough couple of years for the Aussie since their dollar crashed thru parity against USD. About two years ago 1 AUD was worth more than 1 USD. Today 1 AUD buys around 0.77 USD. vs THB AUD it has gone from over 30 to around 25, picking up a little now to about 26. So what's your thoughts? Is it Australia's turn to be driving tuk-tuks, and for Aussie tourists here to moan about the price of beer and accessories? Would there be anything worth buying in Australia if you converted your baht or bath? Where do you think AUD is heading? You would bring that up. I am trying to ignore it and hope it will go away.
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songhua
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Post by songhua on May 26, 2015 22:42:07 GMT 7
Yeah, me too, me. Must have hit the button just at the right minute last week though - got 26.1 on a swift transfer to Bangkok Bank. It was like Christmas.
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Post by Fletchsmile on May 28, 2015 15:11:25 GMT 7
You can tell you've been in Thailand a long time when you... regularly ignore things and hope they go away Currencies are always difficult to predict precisely despite people regularly telling you after the event how much money they made I prefer a strategy of putting myself in a situation where I don't mind where FX rates go. Protect myself against risks that would cause be problems. After that I do keep money in different currencies for diversification, opportunities etc, but by no means is it a big part of my money: mainly THB,GBP,SGD for me. Where I am, where I came from and elsewhere just in case. I do hold some AUD, and FWIW will be looking to add a bit more. cash rates are poor. So if and when I do add, I would likely be doing so to invest in blue chip Australian equities. Aussie banks are some of the best managed in the world, and pay nice divs in the region of 7%. The price earnings, P/E ratio of 3 of the big 4: NAB, ANZ and WPC are all now below 15. Both these are attractive, although they still have some risks in terms of market cycle, time of year (sell in May), and regulatory wise need ing more capital. I already hold some of each of these banks. They're long term holds though for the div income yield - particularly with cash paying next to nothing even in AUD now - and I'm not looking for quick trading profits, so am well aware there'll be ups and downs. I'm looking to add more for the div yield and currency exposure. That may mean switching from another currency though So back to the currency: I think it will go closer to 0.70 to USD, and continue weakening for a while. So likely also weaker vs THB too. When it gets closer to 0.70 vs USD I may switch and buy a bit more of the bank stocks. Not a main currency for me though
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jun 3, 2015 11:29:12 GMT 7
AUD rose a little yesterday vs USD as RBA in Australia left its interest rates on hold Looks likely there'll be another rate cut later this year, which will likely lead to a weaker AUD vs USD, so unless THB also continues to weaken vs USD, there could well be less THB for your AUD later in the year. You never know what will happen, but the risk is there ==============================================================RBA Coy on Further Rate Cut After Holding Fire; Aussie Jumpswww.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-02/australia-keeps-key-rate-unchanged-as-currency-relieves-pressureAustralia left its key interest rate unchanged at a record low and was coy on whether further cuts would be needed to boost growth, sending the currency higher. Central bank Governor Glenn Stevens and his board kept the cash rate at 2 percent in Sydney Tuesday, as predicted by traders and economists. “Monetary policy needs to be accommodative” as the economy is likely to operate with spare capacity “for some time yet,” Stevens said. Australia has had little success in stimulating industries outside housing as a decade-long mining boom winds down, with businesses planning to cut investment in the next 12 months by the most on record. Meanwhile, Sydney and part of Melbourne’s property market are in a low-rate-fueled bubble. “They’re kind of in a wait-and-see mode,” said Su-Lin Ong, head of Australian economic and fixed-income strategy at Royal Bank of Canada in Sydney. “I wouldn’t say there’s a clear easing bias, but we know from the forecasts that it is probably more implicit.” Stevens said in the final paragraph of his statement that the Reserve Bank of Australia would use data over the period ahead to determine whether its policy was correctly set to boost growth and keep inflation consistent with its target. Market Reaction The Australian dollar rose half a U.S. cent after the statement failed to chart an explicit course for policy and traded at 76.84 cents at 3:20 p.m. in Sydney, while stocks extended declines. Traders are pricing in 20 basis points of easing in the next 12 months, or less than a quarter-point cut. Australia, an engine room of the decade-long global commodity boom, forecasts a 90 percent plunge in spending on mining projects, calling time on its biggest resources bonanza since the 1850s gold rush. “With very slow growth in labor costs, inflation is forecast to remain consistent with the target over the next one to two years,” Stevens said. The nation’s economic growth probably cooled to 2.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the slowest pace since 2013, economists predicted ahead of data tomorrow. “Weak wages growth is going to keep inflation low even with a low exchange rate and that tells you quite clearly that if activity disappointed, then the labor costs-inflation story would give them room to ease further,” RBC’s Ong said.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Jun 3, 2015 22:02:54 GMT 7
If you want to see where Australia is heading, take a look at China first, . How are those Rio Tinto shares doing these days?
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jun 5, 2015 7:37:08 GMT 7
If you want to see where Australia is heading, take a look at China first, . How are those Rio Tinto shares doing these days? Hehe. I have small holdings in BHP and RIO. Along with the banking sector, which is well run, these two will be come up on the radar of people looking at Aussie stocks, as Australian stocks are have large resource and banking sectors. Both BHP and RIO have had a tough time - especially in the last year. They bring out a good point in trading/ investing: if I'm to buy, understand why I am buying and what my strategy is. The way I'v played these over time is by buying and selling within ranges. In the last 3 years or so holding these, I have sold some of each stock over 20 times when prices have reason, then buy back on pullbacks. This strategy means that realised losses taken along the way + dividends received outweighed the unrealised loss compared to if someone simply bought and hold. So basically have been range trading these rather than buy and hold investing. It's not my preferred way to do things - as in and out trading is more time consuming. But buy and hold for investment hasn't been a great way for anyone trying that in the last few years. Both also have decent yields: 7.5% BHP and 6.5% RIO, so for someone wanting AUD income, who can accept and ride out capital fluctuations and won't want to touch the capital/sell - just collect dividends long term for the income stream, now at this point they're also not too bad. The worst strategy to have been in for these would have been buy and hold medium term 2-5 years say, looking for total returns/ capital gains. Better strategies: Either dynamically trade them short term by add/reduce in/out; or hold long term for the dividend yields, accepting capital will fluctuate and tolerating the ups and downs, knowing you don't need to touch capital - the difference here you are buying the income stream as your objective rather than looking to make capital gains. So key is meeting your objectives.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Jun 8, 2015 15:33:15 GMT 7
Hold both RT and BHP, also seem to have picked up some Glencore along the way. Divi reinvested and held for the long term.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jun 8, 2015 18:51:26 GMT 7
Do you hold the UK versions or the Australia versions?
For Aussie stocks on ASX: the banks look decent value: ANZ, NAB and Westpac are 3 I hold all on P/Es of 11-13 and div yields over 8%. Will be looking to add to these. Even Commonwealth CBA now has a P/E under 15 and div yield > 7%, the only one of the Big4 Aussie bank's I don't hold
Just biding my time tho' in case of summer weakness, and further weakness of AUD - now at 0.764. Think there may be even lower entry levels, so not in a rush to add, although they are fine at these levels.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jul 8, 2015 14:21:19 GMT 7
No big surprises with RBA's interest rate decision. Unfortunately for our Aussie friends China and commodity prices are helping weaken AUD further. Dropped below 0.74 today. So around 25-ish to THB.
Still not rushing in there. As above, think it could go lower, though have added a bit to RIO and BHP holdings. Banks looking decent value too. Think will wait a bit longer before converting any other currency to AUD though. No doubt the cricket will be a welcome distraction =================================================================== RBA’s Stevens Holds Benchmark Interest Rate at 2% (Full Text)................ At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 percent. The global economy is expanding at a moderate pace, but some key commodity prices are much lower than a year ago. This trend appears largely to reflect increased supply, including from Australia. Australia’s terms of trade are falling nonetheless. ... www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-07/rba-s-stevens-holds-benchmark-interest-rate-at-2-full-text-
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Post by Fletchsmile on Aug 31, 2015 22:35:04 GMT 7
You can tell you've been in Thailand a long time when you... regularly ignore things and hope they go away Currencies are always difficult to predict precisely despite people regularly telling you after the event how much money they made I prefer a strategy of putting myself in a situation where I don't mind where FX rates go. Protect myself against risks that would cause be problems. After that I do keep money in different currencies for diversification, opportunities etc, but by no means is it a big part of my money: mainly THB,GBP,SGD for me. Where I am, where I came from and elsewhere just in case. I do hold some AUD, and FWIW will be looking to add a bit more. cash rates are poor. So if and when I do add, I would likely be doing so to invest in blue chip Australian equities. Aussie banks are some of the best managed in the world, and pay nice divs in the region of 7%. The price earnings, P/E ratio of 3 of the big 4: NAB, ANZ and WPC are all now below 15. Both these are attractive, although they still have some risks in terms of market cycle, time of year (sell in May), and regulatory wise need ing more capital. I already hold some of each of these banks. They're long term holds though for the div income yield - particularly with cash paying next to nothing even in AUD now - and I'm not looking for quick trading profits, so am well aware there'll be ups and downs. I'm looking to add more for the div yield and currency exposure. That may mean switching from another currency though So back to the currency: I think it will go closer to 0.70 to USD, and continue weakening for a while. So likely also weaker vs THB too. When it gets closer to 0.70 vs USD I may switch and buy a bit more of the bank stocks. Not a main currency for me though Well 3 months on from this and we're around AUD/USD 0.71 so close to that 0.70 mark I was looking for. Now just over 25 vs THB The China impact has also made Aussie stocks cheaper. Definitely looking interesting and will be looking closer in next few days, although very busy at the moment. But keeping an eye out for long term adding to positions
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naam
Crazy Mango
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Post by naam on Sept 3, 2015 12:35:43 GMT 7
You can tell you've been in Thailand a long time when you... regularly ignore things and hope they go away Currencies are always difficult to predict precisely despite people regularly telling you after the event how much money they made I prefer a strategy of putting myself in a situation where I don't mind where FX rates go. Protect myself against risks that would cause be problems. After that I do keep money in different currencies for diversification, opportunities etc, but by no means is it a big part of my money: mainly THB,GBP,SGD for me. Where I am, where I came from and elsewhere just in case. I do hold some AUD, and FWIW will be looking to add a bit more. cash rates are poor. So if and when I do add, I would likely be doing so to invest in blue chip Australian equities. Aussie banks are some of the best managed in the world, and pay nice divs in the region of 7%. The price earnings, P/E ratio of 3 of the big 4: NAB, ANZ and WPC are all now below 15. Both these are attractive, although they still have some risks in terms of market cycle, time of year (sell in May), and regulatory wise need ing more capital. I already hold some of each of these banks. They're long term holds though for the div income yield - particularly with cash paying next to nothing even in AUD now - and I'm not looking for quick trading profits, so am well aware there'll be ups and downs. I'm looking to add more for the div yield and currency exposure. That may mean switching from another currency though So back to the currency: I think it will go closer to 0.70 to USD, and continue weakening for a while. So likely also weaker vs THB too. When it gets closer to 0.70 vs USD I may switch and buy a bit more of the bank stocks. Not a main currency for me though Well 3 months on from this and we're around AUD/USD 0.71 so close to that 0.70 mark I was looking for. Now just over 25 vs THB The China impact has also made Aussie stocks cheaper. Definitely looking interesting and will be looking closer in next few days, although very busy at the moment. But keeping an eye out for long term adding to positions
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naam
Crazy Mango
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Post by naam on Sept 3, 2015 12:40:34 GMT 7
Well 3 months on from this and we're around AUD/USD 0.71 so close to that 0.70 mark I was looking for. Now just over 25 vs THB The China impact has also made Aussie stocks cheaper. Definitely looking interesting and will be looking closer in next few days, although very busy at the moment. But keeping an eye out for long term adding to positions yesterday i saw twice for some minutes 69.xx and vs. THB we are presently at 24.668 - but seriously... who gives a f.... except the Aussies?
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Post by rgs2001uk on Sept 3, 2015 13:46:51 GMT 7
^^^^, just when you thought they couldnt whinge any more after being battered in The Ashes, now a currency crisis, how long before we see a return to the good old days of 20 baht to the A$?
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