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Post by Fletchsmile on Dec 14, 2018 16:51:33 GMT 7
The Thai equity market has been a bit frustrating and disappointing this year. SET is down around 8%. True. Down 8.16% according to Bloomberg. However, I'm pretty sure the SET is not a "total return" index, so things are a bit better than that. Probably down around 5% overall. You're spot on. SET is not a total return index. Dividend yield is currently a bit above 3%
They did introduce some total return indices a few years back for each of the main indices.
You rarely hear them referred to though. Fund managers in particular seem to like to quote and benchmark the returns on their funds (usually accumulation units) vs the basic index - omitting to tell you the index they quote excludes divs whereas their funds return includes them.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Dec 14, 2018 21:33:14 GMT 7
For every looser there's a winner somewhere, one of them is Thailand....here's what Bloomberg has to say: - Thailand has posted current-account surpluses every month since the end of September 2014. As a percentage of gross domestic product, the third-quarter balance of 7.7 percent is among the highest in Asia and compares with Taiwan’s 13 percent. - Customs exports also posted gains every months but two in 2017 and 2018, supporting demand for the Thai currency. Despite some signs of a slowdown, the tourism sector remains a major driver. Exports of goods and services account for about two-thirds of Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy. - Foreign reserves are at about $203 billion, more than twice the amount the International Monetary Fund deems as adequate. - Speculation that the Bank of Thailand next week will deliver its first interest-rate increase since 2011 has also bolstered the baht; the central bank’s monetary policy committee discussed "conditions and appropriate timing to begin normalizing monetary policy in the future," according to the minutes of the Nov. 14 rate decision. - A combination of economic recovery and benign inflation was also supportive, with fund inflows to the bond market at $9.2 billion this year through Dec. 11. The finance ministry predicts economic growth of 4.5 percent for 2018, following 3.9 percent expansion in 2017. Inflation was 0.94 percent in November, with the commerce ministry saying a rate of about 1 percent is right for the economy.
So when expats in Thailand talk about investments, many seem to ignore the obvious currency investment that's right on their doorstep, after all, if you spend Baht you need to hold Baht. Instead most seem to prefer to continbue to hold Pounds or whatevers and are too afraid to trust the Baht of Thai banks, citing political uncertainty, fabricated numbers and the safety of the FDIC over the DPA.....it's absolutely crazy.
There's nothing new in the above that hasn't been repeated publically many many times over the past couple of years, trying to get expats/westerners to believe it however is a different matter entirely!www.bloomberg.com/asiaI suppose it depends on how Bloomberg define expats. Heres a few examples of what I have obsereved in Thailand over the years, 1, fixed contract guys, here to complete a project and move on elsewhere, working for LMCs, 3-5 years tops. 2, Young Turks, sent out here as part of a fast track career scheme, cut their teeth in SE Asia before moving on. 3, firefighters and troubleshooters, sent over here to rectify internal problems and move on elsewhere to repeat the same. Call them expats or not, they all had one thing in common, they worked for LMCs and have no intention of living here, they all were paid in their home country and lived on COLA here. 4, FIFO guys, they may be married or not, they live and work overseas and holiday in Thailand for tax reasons. 5, Digital Gypsies, they seem to bounce around Asia from one country to another, never staying long enough in one country to be taxed, all employed by overseas companies. 6, single guys working here, never more than at most 7 days away from getting the flick if they lose their job. 7,guys like me,never more than 1 year away from getting the flick. I know guys who have been here for years, they all have one thing in common, they all have at the least, PR, or in some cases Thai citizenship, best of luck to them. For someone like myself, I prefer to keep the majority of my funds out of Thailand, reasons include, choice of funds available, tax reasons, ease of communication. Onto Thailand, I witnessed the Tom Yam Gung crisis and its effects, 10 years later, the country started to recover. I have seen people who lived in condos in On Nut move into 10 million baht houses in Pattanakarn, Izuzu MU 7 drivers now driving BMW X1s, Nissan March drivers now driving Honda CRVs. etc etc. I know within my heart, I wont die in this country, unless knocked down by a bus tomorrow or heart attack. I have witnessed to way people die here, and it aint for me, this country is great in your 20s 30s and 40s, it aint no place for people in their 70s and 80s, I now understand why people jump from condos.
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chiangmai
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
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Post by chiangmai on Dec 15, 2018 0:15:19 GMT 7
I define an expat in this context as somebody who lives here, for whatever reason, for however long, the simple truth is that if you're going to stay here you need local currency in order to live - if people don't mind being subject to the rises and falls of exchange rates, AND, they have sufficient capital or income to where say a 40% loss of income in local terms is still OK, exchanging currency on an as need basis or every month is OK I suppose. But it seems very odd that a person would do that and then spend lots of time and effort managing investments in their home market because the potential gain on one side merely cancels out the losses on the other, (equity/bond gains offsetting forex losses), that's especially true since the rxchange rate losses against The Pound against THB have pretty much been a one way bet for some years. Each to their own however.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Dec 15, 2018 17:45:45 GMT 7
^^^^^^^ I agree with what you say and would others to heed your sage advice.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Dec 15, 2018 21:00:13 GMT 7
Hate typing on i pads, that should read, would urge others to heed ......
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