tbv
Crazy Mango
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Post by tbv on Jan 23, 2019 10:39:02 GMT 7
Hello all. I just migrated over from, i wont even say it. I have gotten great, fruitful investment advice from fletchsmile in the past, and he steered me over here. I am happy to leave that other place in the rear view mirror seeing the vibe over here. And the pages actually load up on my ipad, how convenient.
We are looking to purchase our second condo within the next year and the bulk of our money is in US banks. I just have this concern on when or how to transfer considering the current low rate. I would say i will need most of our US funds within two years. Nobody knows right, rate could get worse, could get better, but anyone have any advice? I suppose if this shutdown remains in effect long term that is not going to be good.
Thanks!
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AyG
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
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Post by AyG on Jan 23, 2019 11:15:13 GMT 7
The baht has traded in the range 29 to 36 for more than 10 years now, and probably will continue to do so unless there's some sort of crisis. (Of course, having a psychopathic baboon in the White House could be considered a crisis.) At 31.7 it's pretty much in the middle of that range, so I wouldn't say "considering the current low rate". My approach would be to transfer now. That protects you against a crash in the value of the Yankee peso, and if there's a crash in the baht, well, you won't have lost anything - just missed a possible opportunity to be baht-richer.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jan 23, 2019 17:51:51 GMT 7
Given the choice, I'd prefer the psychopathic baboon any day of the week.
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Jan 23, 2019 19:13:09 GMT 7
Given the choice, I'd prefer the psychopathic baboon any day of the week. Then you are a moron. |
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jan 23, 2019 20:00:08 GMT 7
Given the choice, I'd prefer the psychopathic baboon any day of the week. Then you are a moron. Trump or a physco baboon, there can be no choice, the baboon is the better choice. |
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Post by rgs2001uk on Jan 24, 2019 21:06:24 GMT 7
What are you thinking in, US$ terms or Thai baht terms?
The cost in $ terms will be how much you wish to transfer, tx 100k$ to Thailand, the only difference is, how many baht will it buy, the cost in $ terms will be the same.
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siampolee
Detective
Alive alive O
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Post by siampolee on Jan 25, 2019 7:07:27 GMT 7
Looking at the not too distant near future it could or will be interesting to see just how the Thai Baht and the financial markets may possibly react should there be a change in the ruling administration.
Could be worth waiting a day or two to see just how many baht one may get to the assorted foreign currency incomes many here have.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jan 25, 2019 17:15:42 GMT 7
Looking at the not too distant near future it could or will be interesting to see just how the Thai Baht and the financial markets may possibly react should there be a change in the ruling administration. Could be worth waiting a day or two to see just how many baht one may get to the assorted foreign currency incomes many here have. I don't see any change in the administration as having a meaningful impact on the value of THB, except perhaps on capital inflows. The strength of THB is typically determined by the value of exports and tourism numbers rather than politics. Decemeber exports were the second lowest of the year, the trade war is taking its toll so I guess any signs of that comming to an end may help matters. As for tourist numbers....it depends who you want to believe, TAT or the man in the street, my money is on tourist numbers remaining robust. |
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jan 25, 2019 18:11:05 GMT 7
Welcome tbv. I haven't been on the other place for about a year now. Just lost interest in the direction it went  As for USD/THB and where it's heading, as you say no-one knows for certain. I prefer to put myself in a situation where, whatever an exchange rate, I can still live the life I want. As well as not basing plans around needing a particular exchange rate to go in your favour, it also means thinking about what you'd do if the rate moved significantly against you. If I wanted money for a condo I was pretty sure I was going to purchase in the next year and I had enough money now at today's exchange rate, then I'd bring that money in now. For me, no point taking risks for a bit more here or there. I'd rather focus on making money in other ways, than have to make the right call in FX. Peace of mind is worth a lot as well. If USD suddenly tanks or THB strengthens, then how would you feel if you can't buy that condo? If you made a little extra by waiting would it make that much difference to life? So, I'd tend towards bringing the money in now. Do a SWIFT transfer to get the best rate. If a large amount, talk to your bank that it's coming in and ask if they'll call you on the rate, to get the best rate. Transfer in USD and convert to THB in Thailand, as the rates you'll get here will be better than overseas. Then think about where you're going to park the money. Choose one of the stronger banks like BBL, SCB, Kasikorn, Krungsri or even a second tier like TMB where you could likely get a bit higher interest. These should be reasonably safe. Check out the deposit protection act, amounts. These are due to change this year: www.dpa.or.th/ewt_news.php?nid=320&filename=index___ENSo first rely on the bank's strength itself. Then secondly the deposit protection guarantee. I would probably consider splitting the money over more than one bank. Given changes, I would probably limit it to putting no more than THB 5 million per name per bank, for any period of time. The risk is small, but spreading your money can make it smaller. Don'y forget on transferring in, to state on your transfer form at the originating bank that the money is to purchase property. This will be needed later in the buying process. Also get a confirmation / transfer form from your receiving bank that shows the money coming in and the purpose. Will make any purchase easier later. Cheers Fletch  |
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jan 25, 2019 18:18:23 GMT 7
As mentioned I'd rather just bring the funds in and not worry too much about the FX rate. There are few occasions where it looks like it makes sense to wait for uncertainty to be cleared, or for a better rate. This doesn't scream out to me as being one of them now. For what it's worth I also think the trend going forward will be for USD to weaken vs THB over the next few years. This would also make me more likely to act now if I had the funds, but not the deciding factor. There will be ups and downs though and short term USD may well strengthen (or not) so you might get a better rate. That view is based on a lot of things, including Looking further out, reasons I think USD/THB will weaken include USD having been strong in recent years, and that only game in town is changing. Thailand is starting to sort itself out (politically for now). Elections should help, and bring more money into Thailand for investment etc. THB has already shown itself as strengthening this year and has momentum in that direction I wouldn't put my house (or condo) on it though Cheers Fletch |
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