AyG
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
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Post by AyG on Jun 29, 2019 11:28:05 GMT 7
Just finished my monthly review of the performance of my investments, which I do in Sterling. I was gratified to see that pretty much everything was up. My Thai mutual funds were particularly rewarding, all up more than 10%. Overall, up 4.4%. A good month.
Then I rebased to baht. The 4.4% disappeared, and I was basically flat (down 0.04%).
In the last month the FX rate I use* has gone from 40.27 to 38.5525 (down 4.26%).
Ah well, the euphoria was nice whilst it lasted.
* Bangkok Bank TT buying rate.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jun 29, 2019 12:44:41 GMT 7
Just finished my monthly review of the performance of my investments, which I do in Sterling. I was gratified to see that pretty much everything was up. My Thai mutual funds were particularly rewarding, all up more than 10%. Overall, up 4.4%. A good month. Then I rebased to baht. The 4.4% disappeared, and I was basically flat (down 0.04%). In the last month the FX rate I use* has gone from 40.27 to 38.5525 (down 4.26%). Ah well, the euphoria was nice whilst it lasted. * Bangkok Bank TT buying rate. You've always had a knack for spotting the cloud in every silver lining 
GBP and THB are the two most common currencies I also track in. Once I look at one I then look at the other. Over shorter periods in particular it often goes that way for me as well.
That said MTD I only track the individual investments in original currency, and just make a mental note of the FX rates either way.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jun 29, 2019 14:54:42 GMT 7
Just starting to look at my month-end stuff. In terms of net worth, we've never had it so good in GBP terms, with the way sterling's been crushed in the last few years. Raises serious thoughts of moving my early retirement to a 3rd world country like the UK . Free schooling to boot. Although we might have to accept a drop in quality for that, and not just schooling |
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jun 29, 2019 19:40:47 GMT 7
Just finished my monthly review of the performance of my investments, which I do in Sterling. I was gratified to see that pretty much everything was up. My Thai mutual funds were particularly rewarding, all up more than 10%. Overall, up 4.4%. A good month. Then I rebased to baht. The 4.4% disappeared, and I was basically flat (down 0.04%). In the last month the FX rate I use* has gone from 40.27 to 38.5525 (down 4.26%). Ah well, the euphoria was nice whilst it lasted. * Bangkok Bank TT buying rate.
It might put a smile back on your face to look at a less volatile rate.
You're right to use an onshore rate. I appreciate BBL may be who you transact through, but that FX rate movement looks odd to me. Could be just your May m/e rate
If you look at BoT's page it gives an average buying rate for commercial banks. I prefer this to any one bank as it smooths out distortions
31 May GBP/THB 39.6499
28 June GBP/THB 38.5568
so decrease of only 2.76% and you're profitable now
(BTW: I only use the BOT onshore USD/THB interbank rate from that page, and BBerg for all other currencies pairs except THB, then the implied FCY/THB pairs )
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chiangmai
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
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Post by chiangmai on Jun 29, 2019 20:30:19 GMT 7
The value of THB is making the UK look increasingly attractive. We're here for the summer and are constantly converting prices to THB to make comparisons and I can tell you that the UK is cheap currently, by comparison, so much so that it's hard to imagine me ever sending GBP to Thailand again at these levels, it seems plain crazy. So it might just be that the THB stays in Thailand and the GBP stays in the UK, it's nice to be in that position because many don't have a choice.
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Post by butterfly on Jun 29, 2019 21:17:35 GMT 7
Thailand has become expensive, everything is cheaper now in Europe, even in the UK
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Post by butterfly on Jun 29, 2019 21:22:45 GMT 7
Just finished my monthly review of the performance of my investments, which I do in Sterling. I was gratified to see that pretty much everything was up. My Thai mutual funds were particularly rewarding, all up more than 10%. Overall, up 4.4%. A good month. Then I rebased to baht. The 4.4% disappeared, and I was basically flat (down 0.04%). In the last month the FX rate I use* has gone from 40.27 to 38.5525 (down 4.26%). Ah well, the euphoria was nice whilst it lasted. * Bangkok Bank TT buying rate. you should try to buy FX Swaps in THB/GBP to lock-in your rate, or Call options on THB FX Rates or combination of PUTs, whatever you are trying to achieve in terms of lock-in those strategies are well documented publicly, so you might have tutorials online to do that precisely just saying, |
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chiangmai
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
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Post by chiangmai on Jun 30, 2019 12:43:01 GMT 7
Talking of being happy for a moment:
What's going on with Nick Train Global, he used to be the star performer consistently most months, now he's the laggard in the pack, even Baillie Gifford Int has him beat, odd.
But JMP EM did well this past month, up nearly 7.5%, happy days.
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AyG
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
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Post by AyG on Jun 30, 2019 12:57:45 GMT 7
What's going on with Nick Train Global, he used to be the star performer consistently most months, now he's the laggard in the pack, even Baillie Gifford Int has him beat, odd. But JMP EM did well this past month, up nearly 7.5%, happy days. Uh? Year to date Lindsell Train Global has returned 21.2%. BG International has returned 21.1%. (Source: Morningstar.) Nothing for Mr. Train to be ashamed of there. If JPM EM refers to the investment trust, then it has done really well over the last month. However, Europe seems to have done better. HNE is up 8.02% and JESC is up 7.98%. |
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chiangmai
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
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Post by chiangmai on Jun 30, 2019 13:24:25 GMT 7
What's going on with Nick Train Global, he used to be the star performer consistently most months, now he's the laggard in the pack, even Baillie Gifford Int has him beat, odd. But JMP EM did well this past month, up nearly 7.5%, happy days. Uh? Year to date Lindsell Train Global has returned 21.2%. BG International has returned 21.1%. (Source: Morningstar.) Nothing for Mr. Train to be ashamed of there. If JPM EM refers to the investment trust, then it has done really well over the last month. However, Europe seems to have done better. HNE is up 8.02% and JESC is up 7.98%. I referred to NT Global in the month of June, HL shows he's up only 1.7% for the month whereas everything else I hold is up substantial more, unusual I thought because his monthly performance is usually stellar and really stands out. |
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Post by rgs2001uk on Jul 5, 2019 22:08:10 GMT 7
Thailand has become expensive, everything is cheaper now in Europe, even in the UK I picked up a jar of coffee today, it dawned on me after a quick calculation, it was costing 10 pommie pounds for something I could buy all day long in jolly ole blighty for about a fiver. The other week, couldnt believe it, gillette shaving gel, in the paki pound shops, a quid, over here, 9 quid. |
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Post by rgs2001uk on Jul 5, 2019 22:10:44 GMT 7
Just finished my monthly review of the performance of my investments, which I do in Sterling. I was gratified to see that pretty much everything was up. My Thai mutual funds were particularly rewarding, all up more than 10%. Overall, up 4.4%. A good month. Then I rebased to baht. The 4.4% disappeared, and I was basically flat (down 0.04%). In the last month the FX rate I use* has gone from 40.27 to 38.5525 (down 4.26%). Ah well, the euphoria was nice whilst it lasted. * Bangkok Bank TT buying rate. Just checked my uk holdings from this time last year, all up, in fact up more than the drop in the exchange rate, so, I actually hold more in baht terms than i did this time last year, rule brittania. |
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Post by Fletchsmile on Jul 6, 2019 2:33:34 GMT 7
Just finished my monthly review of the performance of my investments, which I do in Sterling. I was gratified to see that pretty much everything was up. My Thai mutual funds were particularly rewarding, all up more than 10%. Overall, up 4.4%. A good month. Then I rebased to baht. The 4.4% disappeared, and I was basically flat (down 0.04%). In the last month the FX rate I use* has gone from 40.27 to 38.5525 (down 4.26%). Ah well, the euphoria was nice whilst it lasted. * Bangkok Bank TT buying rate. you should try to buy FX Swaps in THB/GBP to lock-in your rate, or Call options on THB FX Rates or combination of PUTs, whatever you are trying to achieve in terms of lock-in those strategies are well documented publicly, so you might have tutorials online to do that precisely just saying, It's a nice idea in theory, but not really that practical for retail investors out of Thailand.
The ideal would be TFEX so you could trade online on a recognised Thai exchange. But they don't offer currency options only SET50 equity index and single stock options. The only currency futures are USD/THB i.e. no GBP and they don't go out that far, only usually next 3 months and following quarter, so usually only around 6 months. USDZ19 is the longest at the mo and that is December 2019
Aside from financial institutions, companies/ corporates often need a trade underlying to contract. BoT are less inclined still to let individuals trade currencies or speculate on them (aside from TFEX). Though I believe it's possible
If an individual can get a financial institution to get them thru the red tape, they'll likely get creamed by the FI on any derivative products, so the FI can make it worth their while  Currency options are also not a particularly good use of capital for banks these days, under all the capital adequacy rules, so not much incentive for them without fat margins.
Offshore, no-one is particularly interested in THB for retail clients. Plus any retail client also runs the risk of something happening between the onshore/offshore rates. Like 2006 when the government imposed currency restrictions and the onshore offshore THB rate gap widened to around 10%. Low risk these days, but possible.
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Currency options are also not a particularly good use of capital for banks these days, under all the capital adequacy rules, so not much incentive for them without fat margins.
