Post by rgs2001uk on Feb 12, 2020 20:29:36 GMT 7
Bear in mind, a lot of these stocks are doing well because of their american exposure, putting politics aside, its something that cannot last
(2) I don't think that politics can be ignored. US stocks have done well under Trump. Should he win this year's election (which in my sad opinion is increasingly likely) US stocks should continue to do well under his "leadership". Under the Democrats things are unlikely to be so rosy (which is ironic because the US has done so well because of the Obama-era policies - not because of Trump). After the election Trump is likely (well, as likely as anything can be under his inconsistent and capricious hand) to stoke up war with China (and other countries) again, harming China and linked economies and their associated share prices. Given the failed impeachment process he now considers himself above the law and believes he can act as a self-serving, reckless and ruthless tinpot dictator with impunity. (And he's probably right.) More generally, the correlation between US and global stock markets has increased, meaning that what happens in the US has a greater impact upon other markets than what it used to.
So, at the moment things probably remain good for US markets for a few years yet.
First problem is defining what exactly are EMs?
If I was to reinvest in EMs, this is the only one I would consider, I held them years ago and offloaded them for better returns elsewhere.
www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/j/jpmorgan-emerging-markets-it-plc-ord-25p
By investing in global ITs, I can still get exposure to Asia etc etc.
asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/30-years-since-Japan-s-stock-market-peaked-climb-back-continues
As for the land of the free, the shining city on the hill, well I for one dont buy into american exceptionalism, but I willconcede, when america sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold, this is the same country and system that gave us the dot com bubble and the GFC, the laughable thing is, they locked old Bernie up for running a ponzi scheme, ha ha ha.
For your closing sentence, I concur, I expect the run to contine of a few more years, 4 more years I can hear you shouting in the background, , after that, all bets are off.
As has been mentioned on here before, check out the years 1999 to 2008.
www.statista.com/statistics/261713/changes-of-the-sundp-500-during-the-us-election-years-since-1928/