chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Mar 13, 2020 17:46:10 GMT 7
And this morning (Friday) it's lost a further 10%. YTD it's down 36.5%. I don't know whether to laugh or cry. FWIW I'm very pleased to have my bond holdings which have fallen a paltry -2% as apposed to LT UK or Global at around -17%. Not as good as your index bonds but still quite reassuring, under the circumstances.
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Post by Fletchsmile on Mar 13, 2020 17:51:01 GMT 7
Personally, I wouldn't be buying this dip in Thai stocks. I think that the incompetent military government is going to be here to stifle the economy for a few more years. What particularly hurts is that my Asian investment trusts are down heavily year-to-date. SOI down 15.6%, PAC down 10.1%. On the bright side, my investment in index-linked government bonds has done well. US TIPS [TIPG] is up 6.9%, and UK index-linked Gilts [GILI] is up 8.9% YTD.
A lot of people don't really understand how TIPs and Index Linked Gilts work.
They buy them as an inflation hedge. But in reality they are more complex than that. People forget 1) they usually pay a small fixed coupon and they are safer than many other assets which is affected by interest rates 2) from a credit perspective because of the sovereign credit aspect. The inflation increase is the third one that people focus on
If we look at the 2 times in recent years index-linked bonds have delivered great returns, they had nothing to do with inflation at all. Indeed they made money when inflation was actually not happening or not going to happen So people have bought them and make money for the "wrong reasons"
1) They did well around Brexit time. Inflation was tanking and growth really under threat. Rates were cut because of deflation risks - nothing at all to do with them doing well and inflation about to start. As rates were cut the fixed coupon element becomes more attractive. Also the sovereign/ governament protection became more valuable in a more equity risk averse environment
2) Again now, because of the co-vid virus, oil etc, we are looking at slowing growth and even risks of deflation - again no gains because of inflation. Again people flee to soverign assets so prices of any government bonds increase, and again rates have been cut to try and boost growth, so the small yields are more attractive
This lack of understanding of how and when people make money for them is why many retail investors need to be careful. Often it's better left to people who understand the products in a say a managed multi asset style fund, when it comes to the average Joe investinng. It's an area that people should understand before investing themselves.
Then again sometimes it's better to be just lucky than knowledgeable.
They are making money now because inflation isn't happening, which I always find ironic knowing so many retail investors bought to hedge in case of inflation happening - they're making money because of the opposite of what they intended
They're an interesting product, but I wouldn't recommend most retail investors use them without understanding the implications in different scenarios. There's much more to it than inflation
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Mar 13, 2020 18:13:40 GMT 7
A lot of people don't really understand how TIPs and Index Linked Gilts work. So people have bought them and make money for the "wrong reasons" That pretty much describes me. I bought them in the expectation that governments would use inflation to reduce the value of their massive debts. (And I'm not alone in having thought that.) That hasn't happened, and (to be honest), I was on the verge of giving up on them. I got lucky with how they've performed recently. That said, I've sold 50% of my holdings in both TIPS and Index-linked Gilts in the last week, partly to reinvest in equities. There's also a dark cloud on the horizon for the gilts - the government is changing the index upon which the Gilts are based. This will drop returns by around 1%/year. There are no plans to compensate holders for the consequent loss - calculated as as much as 30% for the longest termed gilts.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Mar 13, 2020 21:01:00 GMT 7
And this morning (Friday) it's lost a further 10%. YTD it's down 36.5%. I don't know whether to laugh or cry. The lack of a coordinated world repsonse to this is utterly staggering, where are the G7/20, nowhere? What is the European repsonse, eff knows.. Two things I have learned over the years, and this aint my first rodeo, cash is king, whether in the form of a monthly pay cheque, or pension, and secondly, civilians do not know how to handle global epidemic, the military should have been instructed to blow the dust off the cold war manuals, and treat it as an nbc fallout. The self serving politicians will not make a desicion for fear off offending snowflakes and losing their spot at the trough. On this one, The Don was correct, now we have totally unfit for purpose EU wondering why they werent consulted, heres a hint merkel, America aint your concerm get your own back yard together first.
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rubl
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Post by rubl on Mar 13, 2020 21:13:37 GMT 7
And this morning (Friday) it's lost a further 10%. YTD it's down 36.5%. I don't know whether to laugh or cry. The lack of a coordinated world repsonse to this is utterly staggering, where are the G7/20, nowhere? What is the European repsonse, eff knows.. Two things I have learned over the years, and this aint my first rodeo, cash is king, whether in the form of a monthly pay cheque, or pension, and secondly, civilians do not know how to handle global epidemic, the military should have been instructed to blow the dust off the cold war manuals, and treat it as an nbc fallout. The self serving politicians will not make a desicion for fear off offending snowflakes and losing their spot at the trough. On this one, The Don was correct, now we have totally unfit for purpose EU wondering why they werent consulted, heres a hint merkel, America aint your concerm get your own back yard together first. That's a bit of horse manure there, my dear rgs. If the E.U. had activated the army no doubt someone here would have gone hysterical with Brussels Dictators and lots of Fourth Reich nonsense. As for your description of politicians, well I guess you're not even excluding your ow PM BoJo who has a great majority in parliament? The Don is not a fool but a coward who's only concerned with his ratings and the re-election. Nothing to do with American people. He's still lying about the effects of COVID-19 and his sycophants are not better. For better or for worse we have a globally connected economical model. There is no 'your backyard'.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Mar 13, 2020 21:21:19 GMT 7
^^^, Oh please, do you need a shovel to dig that hole you are digging for yourself any deeper?
I aint bothered about Brussels, thankfully we rid ourselves of that monkey on our back.
If the EU had turned round and said, this is not our bailiwick, I would have had more respect, lets call in the exparts.
Gawd I miss the Cold War days, when none of this would have been possible, proper leaders making descions, not managers, jobsworths and box tickers.
Pre 1990, none of this was heard of, post the wall coming down, effin ebola, sars, bird flu etc etc.
Open borders and free movement of people dont help, go into lockdown mode, and too be honest, I blame the chinese more than anyone, they like the rest of asia suffer from face syndrome, that has no place in an open borders connected world.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Mar 13, 2020 21:28:03 GMT 7
A lot of people don't really understand how TIPs and Index Linked Gilts work. So people have bought them and make money for the "wrong reasons" That pretty much describes me. I bought them in the expectation that governments would use inflation to reduce the value of their massive debts. (And I'm not alone in having thought that.) That hasn't happened, and (to be honest), I was on the verge of giving up on them. I got lucky with how they've performed recently. That said, I've sold 50% of my holdings in both TIPS and Index-linked Gilts in the last week, partly to reinvest in equities. There's also a dark cloud on the horizon for the gilts - the government is changing the index upon which the Gilts are based. This will drop returns by around 1%/year. There are no plans to compensate holders for the consequent loss - calculated as as much as 30% for the longest termed gilts. I knew exactly what I was getting into, and why I was getting into it. I am reminded of years ago when I bought a house for 35k, at one stage it was worth about 60, I sold it for less than 50, did I lose money or not? Yes, on paper, I have lost a shitload, and I mean a effin shitload, the botton line is, I am still worth more now than I was at the original purchase price. I dont need to worry about losing my job or missing mortgage repayments, too be honest, there are others in far worse off positions than me, we are at ground zero, the ripples and fallout from this hasnt yet reached the shores, this isnt going to end well.
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rubl
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Post by rubl on Mar 13, 2020 21:31:29 GMT 7
Well, back to splendid isolation for you then. Forget Global Britain. Will you tell BoJo and all his brexiteers or do you want I do that?
For your information, no I don't miss the Cold War days when at times we were very close to Nuclear Armageddon.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Mar 13, 2020 21:46:42 GMT 7
Well, back to splendid isolation for you then. Forget Global Britain. Will you tell BoJo and all his brexiteers or do you want I do that? For your information, no I don't miss the Cold War days when at times we were very close to Nuclear Armageddon. Really, when was that, you have been watching too much Hollywood BS and propoganda movies. Off the top of my head, and pre me being born was the bay of pigs fiasco, and american arrogance, not helped by the likes of Mccarthyism, I some times ask myself, which master did he serve, Rome or America?
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Post by rgs2001uk on Mar 14, 2020 0:06:46 GMT 7
Just punched some numbers, still up 14% on original purchase price, things aint as bleak as they look. As my thai friends told me, ดูยาว, its just numbers on a piece of paper, less for the mrs if I croak it.
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rubl
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Post by rubl on Mar 15, 2020 13:36:59 GMT 7
Nothing to see here except stable genius and economical miracle worker Trump of course. "‘BIGGEST STOCK MARKET RISE IN HISTORY YESTERDAY!’— President Donald Trump" "Trump touts ‘biggest stock market rise in history yesterday,’ but many investors believe worst isn’t over amid coronavirus panic Friday’s Dow gain was the largest ever on a points basis, much as Thursday, Monday and Wednesday, respectively, had delivered the blue-chip index’s largest, second largest and third largest one-day point declines That is Trump on Saturday morning, referencing the Friday surge by the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +9.36%, the S&P 500 index SPX, +9.28% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +9.34%, which constituted the major equity benchmarks’ biggest daily percentage gains since 2008. Friday’s Dow gain was the largest ever on a points basis, much as Thursday, Monday and Wednesday, respectively, had delivered the blue-chip index’s largest, second largest and third largest one-day point declines. But Friday’s rally in U.S. stocks that Trump tweeted about only recovered most of the losses suffered a day earlier, when the market saw its worst day on a percentage-loss basis since the Black Monday crash of 1987. The Dow is down about 20% from its record high. That puts it in a bear market." www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-touts-biggest-stock-market-rise-in-history-yesterday-but-some-investors-think-worst-isnt-over-amid-coronavirus-panic-2020-03-14
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Mar 15, 2020 13:50:30 GMT 7
^^^ Of course, one of the things that the orange buffoon has trumpeted as proof of his amazing talents during his presidency is the US stock market. He's never going to admit that it's been as wonderful as his own business career (i.e. major wealth destructive). Expect more of this shit from the toilet-brain of Trump. And it will only get more delusive as the November elections approach.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Mar 16, 2020 17:38:27 GMT 7
The FTSE's down 6% this morning, I'd happily see it fall 20% if it means Trump gets out of the White House.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Mar 16, 2020 20:30:49 GMT 7
The FTSE's down 6% this morning, I'd happily see it fall 20% if it means Trump gets out of the White House. , a better man than me. Who would you rather have in charge? Whats the Don not doing that you would like to see him do?
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rubl
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Post by rubl on Mar 16, 2020 20:58:15 GMT 7
The FTSE's down 6% this morning, I'd happily see it fall 20% if it means Trump gets out of the White House. , a better man than me. Who would you rather have in charge? Whats the Don not doing that you would like to see him do? Stop lying and twittering would be a nice start
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