chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Dec 4, 2020 4:36:52 GMT 7
USD continues to weaken, the Dollar Index is on the verge of breaching 90 and heading further South. It's not good news for Thai exporters although I find it difficult to blame BOT for a problem that originates in the US. Sadly there are those who will continue to blame Thailand and tell us the overly strong Baht is to blame, regardless of the real cause. www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Dec 12, 2020 5:34:02 GMT 7
The Deal/No Deal rhetoric from both sides is strong and the decision is going down to the wire, both parties seem entrenched in their opposing positions. If there is no deal markets will take a hit but the big one appears to be the Pound which could easily fall below USD 1.20, bearing in mind USD is already weak and still on a downward slope. Against THB things look messy for holders of GBP, that includes me, I was betting that there would be plenty of brinkmanship in the run-up to the decision but that a deal would be agreed at the last minute, maybe it still will but it's looking increasingly less likely.
Meanwhile, of course, we have Thailand's BOT struggling to contain the rising value of the Baht against a falling Dollar, a totally opposite position to that of Sterling.....gulp! Will somebody please set the dial on the way back machine for 1990, please?
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Dec 12, 2020 6:10:59 GMT 7
A couple of points to note from the above (courtesy The Nation), I think: Whilst Thai GDP is below the ASEAN average, inflation is also well below all other countries, this is one of the trade-offs which I think is often lost when people start to spout Vietnams growth rate etc. And Thailand drop in GDP was greater than all countries, other than India, it follows that their complete recovery might also take a bit longer. www.nationthailand.com/
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Dec 12, 2020 6:17:05 GMT 7
It would appear you're not alone in your thinking about the UK. www.theguardian.com/business/2020/dec/11/no-deal-brexit-bank-of-england-warns-of-market-instability-and-financial-disruptionJust a few of my own thoughts: (1) Markets have already factored in a lot of the negative scenarios, so may not fall too much further. (2) With the FTSE 100 most of the companies derive most of their income from overseas, so it shouldn't be as has hit as the FTSE 250 the companies of which are more domestically orientated. (3) Markets hate uncertainty. A final decision, in or out, would increase certainty, so the markets may even rise. (4) I know I'll be highly relieved when there is a final decision, whichever way it goes (but preferably out). These years of not knowing what's going to happen have been very boring. The news has been dominated by Brexit, Trump and Covid for far too long. I look forward to more interesting news.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Dec 12, 2020 7:09:20 GMT 7
Indeed, good points especially about FTSE o/s income. I don't claim any great insight or foresight but I did mostly get out of the UK market a few months ago, I think I hold less than 8% currently. It was mostly that I felt Asia and EM offered better scope for improved returns and that worked out well for me, as did (my long held) Baillie Gifford International which is now up 42%.
I'm also warming to the Guardian which in the past I've only read casually from time to time, I've absolutely had it with the Torygraph!
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Dec 12, 2020 16:46:33 GMT 7
Malaysia has the same problem as Thailand, their currency has strengthened on the back of a weakening Dollar and as capital inflows eat up their bond market. Bloomberg writes: “A weaker dollar is a key part of the ringgit’s strength, with the strong run in the Chinese yuan also helping to lift the currency as well given the strong historical correlation,” ANZ’s head of Asia research Khoon Goh said before the ringgit hit the high. “An improving global outlook has led to an improvement in oil prices.” While the currency’s strength may be viewed as a vote of confidence, it also risks hurting Malaysia’s export-reliant economy which is slowly recovering from its biggest contraction in over two decades. A revival in bond inflows could add to the ringgit’s upward trajectory as a search for yield lures global funds to emerging Asian debt". www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/ringgit-erases-covid-19-losses-to-rise-to-strongest-since-2018
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Post by rgs2001uk on Dec 12, 2020 20:51:27 GMT 7
Indeed, good points especially about FTSE o/s income. I don't claim any great insight or foresight but I did mostly get out of the UK market a few months ago, I think I hold less than 8% currently. It was mostly that I felt Asia and EM offered better scope for improved returns and that worked out well for me, as did (my long held) Baillie Gifford International which is now up 42%. I'm also warming to the Guardian which in the past I've only read casually from time to time, I've absolutely had it with the Torygraph! You must be Mystic Meg in disguise, . an excerpt from recent correspondane with my stockbroker, "How have global stock markets reacted? The US stock market shrugged off the worst of the uncertainty in March and bounced back strongly, led by a handful of tech stocks. We have also had the real-life soap opera that was the Presidential Election this year. The US market has broadly welcomed the result, even if President Trump may be dragging his feet on the way out of the White House. This year, UK focused investments have been the laggards. We have seen numerous UK companies cutting dividends to provide themselves with a financial buffer to get through the economic uncertainty. There are green shoots emerging, with some companies beginning to reinstate dividends cancelled during the first national lockdown. More recently, stronger than expected outcomes from three vaccine programmes have helped investor sentiment and raised hopes for a return to some form of normality during 2021. The ongoing Brexit saga continues to rumble on. It remains to be seen how this will develop and how economies will be impacted as a result. Over the last decade, we have been gradually adjusting portfolios to be ever more international, investing in the best quality international companies wherever they are domiciled. We now have a core industry advantage of deeper and wider research capabilities that have helped us with this. From January, we will be adjusting to more broad and international benchmarks for portfolios to better reflect this portfolio evolution. There will be more to follow on this topic in the Quarterly Report." Highlighted in bold is my quick assesment. As for BG, you could damned near build a portfolio from them, America, Europe, International, and take your pick from either Monks or Edinburgh.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Dec 12, 2020 20:54:14 GMT 7
^^^ carrying on from above, a quick snap shot as of yesterday.
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Dec 12, 2020 21:04:04 GMT 7
"As for BG, you could damned near build a portfolio from them"
And then come seriously unstuck when their style stops being the fashion du jour.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Dec 12, 2020 21:13:58 GMT 7
"As for BG, you could damned near build a portfolio from them" And then come seriously unstuck when their style stops being the fashion du jour. As a committed Brexiter I strongly object to the use of frog lingo, . Horses for courses old chap, capital growth or regular income? I do however speak enough frog lingo to understand the need to diversify.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Dec 12, 2020 21:23:24 GMT 7
The Deal/No Deal rhetoric from both sides is strong and the decision is going down to the wire, both parties seem entrenched in their opposing positions. If there is no deal markets will take a hit but the big one appears to be the Pound which could easily fall below USD 1.20, bearing in mind USD is already weak and still on a downward slope. Against THB things look messy for holders of GBP, that includes me, I was betting that there would be plenty of brinkmanship in the run-up to the decision but that a deal would be agreed at the last minute, maybe it still will but it's looking increasingly less likely. Meanwhile, of course, we have Thailand's BOT struggling to contain the rising value of the Baht against a falling Dollar, a totally opposite position to that of Sterling.....gulp! Will somebody please set the dial on the way back machine for 1990, please? To be honest, why should it affect you? I thought like me you held cash reserves in Thailand. I do not transfer money or pensions (which I dont yet get) on a monthly or yearly basis. As mentioned before, 40 is the benchmark for me, anything over is a bonus. You like me have enough to keep you going for the next X years in Thailand, giving UK investments time to recover. As mentioned before, these days I would rather invest in the UK and take a hit on exchange rates in return for better UK v Thai performance. Gulp is about right, irrespective of what you read elsewhere, in 1990 most expats I know would have bitten your hand off for 40 baht to the pommie peso.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Dec 12, 2020 22:01:36 GMT 7
^^^ CM, carrying on from above, the memories come flooding back, you dont often hear these tales of woe being posted or talked about online.
A former colleague took out an international mortgage to buy a 2 million baht farang macmansion in Lat Prao, cost at the time, 50k pommie pesos, he was crying into his bia chang a year later, when the baht nosedived, and he could have bought the same house for less than a years wages or 20k pommie pesos.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Dec 13, 2020 4:13:47 GMT 7
The Deal/No Deal rhetoric from both sides is strong and the decision is going down to the wire, both parties seem entrenched in their opposing positions. If there is no deal markets will take a hit but the big one appears to be the Pound which could easily fall below USD 1.20, bearing in mind USD is already weak and still on a downward slope. Against THB things look messy for holders of GBP, that includes me, I was betting that there would be plenty of brinkmanship in the run-up to the decision but that a deal would be agreed at the last minute, maybe it still will but it's looking increasingly less likely. Meanwhile, of course, we have Thailand's BOT struggling to contain the rising value of the Baht against a falling Dollar, a totally opposite position to that of Sterling.....gulp! Will somebody please set the dial on the way back machine for 1990, please? To be honest, why should it affect you? I thought like me you held cash reserves in Thailand. I do not transfer money or pensions (which I dont yet get) on a monthly or yearly basis. As mentioned before, 40 is the benchmark for me, anything over is a bonus. You like me have enough to keep you going for the next X years in Thailand, giving UK investments time to recover. As mentioned before, these days I would rather invest in the UK and take a hit on exchange rates in return for better UK v Thai performance. Gulp is about right, irrespective of what you read elsewhere, in 1990 most expats I know would have bitten your hand off for 40 baht to the pommie peso. Yes, I'm OK for living expenses for quite a few years but when you get into your 70's you begin to think in terms of estate planning and the value of the assets you will leave your wife etc., a low exchange rate alters that picture because I still have UK property and an investment account that are denominated in GBP. I'm also building up quite a wodge in my UK account that is sat doing sod all, I doubt that negative interest rates will see consumer accounts charged for holding cash but they just might, if they're over a certain level. That leaves me with the option to convert to Baht at a low rate or increase my risk by opening a second investment account and putting the funds into the markets. Again, at 70+ I'm not sure I want to increase my investment risk, especially not under current conditions. I think 40 is still a good bench mark although without a no-deal Brexit I might have expected to stem the Baht's rise against USD which could mean 45 ish against GBP But if no-deal becomes reality we'll be very hard pressed to hold at 40, even if BOT does act.
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rubl
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Post by rubl on Dec 13, 2020 8:35:56 GMT 7
Negative interest per 2021-01-01, in the Netherlands. Interesting is also the graph. 20% of persons asked said to have withdrawn their money to keep the cash at home, 21% switched banks, 21% did nothing or didn't have enough money to worry about such mundane things like negative interest. h Bank Bedraggrens en kosten Rente ABN Amro €500.000 -0,5% ASN Bank €250.000 (v.a. 1-3-2021) -0,5% Bunq Vanaf €100.000 rekent Bunq €0,03 per €1000 nvt ING €250.000 -0,5% Knab €250.000 (v.a. 1-2-2021) -0,5% Rabobank €250.000 -0,5% Regiobank €250.000 (v.a. 1-3-2021) -0,5% SNS €250.000 (v.a. 1-3-2021) -0,5% Triodos Bank €100.000 + €2 per maand boven de 18 jaar -0,5% Van Lanschot €2,5 miljoen -0,2% peildatum: 01-01-2021 www.consumentenbond.nl/sparen/negatieve-spaarrente
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Dec 13, 2020 8:54:03 GMT 7
^^^ I don't read Dutch, but the 20% of persons bit, based upon Google Vertalen, it's "We asked 7,000 panel members what they would do in the event of a negative savings interest." In other words, it's purely speculative. I wonder just how many of those 7,000 have those sorts of sums of money on deposit, anyway, so the responses aren't particularly meaningful.
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