chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Dec 13, 2020 10:20:11 GMT 7
I read it twice and still didn't understand it, it was, ahem, double Dutch. Sorry.
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rubl
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Post by rubl on Dec 13, 2020 11:25:24 GMT 7
The article was published by The Consumentenbond ("Consumers' League", a Dutch non-profit organization which promotes consumer protection). So don't worry. I would think that even the British sister organisation wouldn't really concern itself with people with worries as expressed here
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Dec 14, 2020 9:25:46 GMT 7
NPL's are in the press once again, Thai banks saying they will develop them rather than sell on bad loans. But what I thought was striking was the proportion of bad loans by bank, Partially foreign owned banks (TMB (ING) and BAY(Bank Mitusbishi)) being quite low whilst all Thai owned banks being very high:
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rubl
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Post by rubl on Dec 14, 2020 10:34:13 GMT 7
NPL's are in the press once again, Thai banks saying they will develop them rather than sell on bad loans. But what I thought was striking was the proportion of bad loans by bank, Partially foreign owned banks (TMB (ING) and BAY(Bank Mitusbishi)) being quite low whilst all Thai owned banks being very high: I think apart from absolute numbers you should also look at the relation to the size of the banks and the %% of NPLs.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Dec 14, 2020 13:18:05 GMT 7
NPL's are in the press once again, Thai banks saying they will develop them rather than sell on bad loans. But what I thought was striking was the proportion of bad loans by bank, Partially foreign owned banks (TMB (ING) and BAY(Bank Mitusbishi)) being quite low whilst all Thai owned banks being very high: I think apart from absolute numbers you should also look at the relation to the size of the banks and the %% of NPLs. Yes of course, there are a number of ways to look at NPL's, I just thought it was strikingly coincidental (perhaps) that the two lowest NPL figures were from partially foreign owned banks.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Dec 14, 2020 21:00:36 GMT 7
To be honest, why should it affect you? I thought like me you held cash reserves in Thailand. I do not transfer money or pensions (which I dont yet get) on a monthly or yearly basis. As mentioned before, 40 is the benchmark for me, anything over is a bonus. You like me have enough to keep you going for the next X years in Thailand, giving UK investments time to recover. As mentioned before, these days I would rather invest in the UK and take a hit on exchange rates in return for better UK v Thai performance. Gulp is about right, irrespective of what you read elsewhere, in 1990 most expats I know would have bitten your hand off for 40 baht to the pommie peso. Yes, I'm OK for living expenses for quite a few years but when you get into your 70's you begin to think in terms of estate planning and the value of the assets you will leave your wife etc., a low exchange rate alters that picture because I still have UK property and an investment account that are denominated in GBP. I'm also building up quite a wodge in my UK account that is sat doing sod all, I doubt that negative interest rates will see consumer accounts charged for holding cash but they just might, if they're over a certain level. That leaves me with the option to convert to Baht at a low rate or increase my risk by opening a second investment account and putting the funds into the markets. Again, at 70+ I'm not sure I want to increase my investment risk, especially not under current conditions. I think 40 is still a good bench mark although without a no-deal Brexit I might have expected to stem the Baht's rise against USD which could mean 45 ish against GBP But if no-deal becomes reality we'll be very hard pressed to hold at 40, even if BOT does act. Good man, I remember our situations were similair. I dont think about exchange rates, i think more about the capital sum that will be transferred.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Dec 14, 2020 21:01:59 GMT 7
I think apart from absolute numbers you should also look at the relation to the size of the banks and the %% of NPLs. Yes of course, there are a number of ways to look at NPL's, I just thought it was strikingly coincidental (perhaps) that the two lowest NPL figures were from partially foreign owned banks. A prime example of farang not understand thai, .
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Dec 16, 2020 15:50:34 GMT 7
The currency manipulation issue just won't go away, what's a poor third world country to do... www.bangkokpost.com/business/2036339/thailand-among-countries-at-risk-in-us-treasurys-currency-reportTo say this is currency manipulation is very unfair and a misnomer at best, the truth is that the US doesn't like it when other countries have a trade surplus, especially when they themselves have a very large trade deficit (the US trade deficit is around USD 470 bill., it makes Thailands paltry USD 20 bill. surplus seem, well, paltry!) And then there's the way the surplus is calculated. A trade surplus in THB at 35 baht per USD is 17% less than when the baht is worth 30, is it really Thailands fault that the USD is going down the pan. Why are they weakening it, isn't that currency manipulation also? If Thailand took that USD 20 bill. surplus and bought something with it, would that really alter the exchange rates that much, I doubt it. But it would make the label go away, especially if the money was spent on buying US stuff. It all smells like blackmail to me.
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rubl
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Post by rubl on Dec 16, 2020 20:56:39 GMT 7
I think this is for 2017. USA trade gap with Thailand wasn't in the top 10. Here are the 10 countries with the highest trade imbalance: China (-375,576) Mexico (-70,953) Japan (-68,876) Germany (-63,678) Vietnam (-38,355) Ireland (-38,089) Italy (-31,513) Malaysia (-24,432) South Korea (-23,118) India (-22,914) worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/us-trade-deficit-by-countryBTW The other side of the medaly Countries America has the largest trade surplus with #25. Afghanistan - Surplus: $1.2 billion (exports to U.S.: $0 billion; imports from U.S.: $1.2 billion) #24. Colombia - Surplus: $1.2 billion (exports to U.S.: $13.8 billion; imports from U.S.: $15 billion) #23. Lebanon - Surplus: $1.2 billion (exports to U.S.: $0.1 billion; imports from U.S.: $1.3 billion) #22. Gibraltar - Surplus: $1.3 billion (exports to U.S.: $0 billion; imports from U.S.: $1.3 billion) #21. Morocco - Surplus: $1.4 billion (exports to U.S.: $1.6 billion; imports from U.S.: $2.9 billion) #20. Costa Rica - Surplus: $1.5 billion (exports to U.S.: $4.9 billion; imports from U.S.: $6.3 billion) #19. Peru - Surplus: $1.8 billion (exports to U.S.: $7.9 billion; imports from U.S.: $9.6 billion) #18. Paraguay - Surplus: $2.2 billion (exports to U.S.: $0.1 billion; imports from U.S.: $2.4 billion) #17. Jamaica - Surplus: $2.3 billion (exports to U.S.: $0.4 billion; imports from U.S.: $2.7 billion) #16. Guatemala - Surplus: $2.4 billion (exports to U.S.: $4.2 billion; imports from U.S.: $6.6 billion) #15. Egypt - Surplus: $2.6 billion (exports to U.S.: $2.5 billion; imports from U.S.: $5.1 billion) #14. Bahamas - Surplus: $2.7 billion (exports to U.S.: $0.4 billion; imports from U.S.: $3.1 billion) #13. Qatar - Surplus: $2.9 billion (exports to U.S.: $1.6 billion; imports from U.S.: $4.4 billion) #12. Dominican Republic - Surplus: $3.3 billion (imports to U.S.: $5.3 billion; exports from U.S.: $8.6 billion) #11. Chile - Surplus: $4 billion (imports to U.S.: $11.4 billion; exports from U.S.: $15.3 billion) #10. Argentina - Surplus: $5.1 billion (exports to U.S.: $4.9 billion; imports from U.S.: $9.9 billion) #9. United Kingdom - Surplus: $5.4 billion (exports to U.S.: $60.8 billion; imports from U.S.: $66.2 billion) #8. Singapore - Surplus: $5.9 billion (exports to U.S.: $27.3 billion; imports from U.S.: $33.1 billion) #7. Panama - Surplus: $6.4 billion (exports to U.S.: $0.5 billion; imports from U.S.: $6.9 billion) #6. Brazil - Surplus: $8.3 billion (exports to U.S.: $31.2 billion; imports from U.S.: $39.5 billion) #5. Belgium - Surplus: $14.2 billion (exports to U.S.: $17.2 billion; imports from U.S.: $31.4 billion) #4. United Arab Emirates - Surplus: $14.5 billion (exports to U.S.: $5 billion; imports from U.S.: $19.5 billion) #3. Australia - Surplus: $15.2 billion (exports to U.S.: $10.1 billion; imports from U.S.: $25.3 billion) #2. Netherlands - Surplus: $24.8 billion (exports to U.S.: $24.6 billion; imports from U.S.: $49.4 billion) #1. Hong Kong - Surplus: $31.1 billion (exports to U.S.: $6.3 billion; imports from U.S.: $37.5 billion) stacker.com/stories/3090/countries-america-has-largest-trade-surplus
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Dec 17, 2020 5:47:14 GMT 7
I think this is for 2017. USA trade gap with Thailand wasn't in the top 10. That's because in 2017. USD/THB was at 35, not 30 and whose fault was that!
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Dec 17, 2020 6:15:09 GMT 7
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Dec 17, 2020 7:18:23 GMT 7
Some fascinating economic trends trivia with which to entertain/bore your friends over Xmas drinks: Since 2010, Thailands GDP has seen the contribution made by Agriculture shrink from 11% to 8%, industry shrink from 44% to 33% but Services has increased from 49% to 59%. What are those services you ask, well, they include Government, Education, Transportation, Finance, Health, Trade and almost anything where there is no physical or tangible output product. Just to join up the dots here, think.... the hub of health care and dual pricing; the near-monopoly on banking; the push to sell insurance products; travel services think hotels and tourism. So when they tell us that exports are down but GDP is up, services is a good part of the answer. Except Tourism is an export hence many Services are dependent on it, the dual whammy of falling exports and no International Tourism is the real economic killer. www.statista.com/statistics/331893/share-of-economic-sectors-in-the-gdp-in-thailand/#:~:text=Share%20of%20economic%20sectors%20in%20the%20GDP%20in%20Thailand%202019&text=In%202019%2C%20the%20share%20of,sector%20contributed%20about%2058.59%20percent. data.worldbank.org/indicator/BG.GSR.NFSV.GD.ZS?locations=TH
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Post by rgs2001uk on Dec 17, 2020 21:46:32 GMT 7
The currency manipulation issue just won't go away, what's a poor third world country to do... www.bangkokpost.com/business/2036339/thailand-among-countries-at-risk-in-us-treasurys-currency-reportTo say this is currency manipulation is very unfair and a misnomer at best, the truth is that the US doesn't like it when other countries have a trade surplus, especially when they themselves have a very large trade deficit (the US trade deficit is around USD 470 bill., it makes Thailands paltry USD 20 bill. surplus seem, well, paltry!) And then there's the way the surplus is calculated. A trade surplus in THB at 35 baht per USD is 17% less than when the baht is worth 30, is it really Thailands fault that the USD is going down the pan. Why are they weakening it, isn't that currency manipulation also? If Thailand took that USD 20 bill. surplus and bought something with it, would that really alter the exchange rates that much, I doubt it. But it would make the label go away, especially if the money was spent on buying US stuff. It all smells like blackmail to me. Lets not mention QE. I sometimes wonder if the Fed Reserve isnt the greatest ponzi scheme ever invented, kick the can down the road. When was the last time an independant team of auditors carried out a check on the gold reserves? From memory itas not that long ago the frogs almost brought uncle sam to his knees. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exorbitant_privilegewww.huffpost.com/entry/august-15-1971_b_4284327
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Dec 18, 2020 7:34:12 GMT 7
There are problems of the usual kind at SAM: SAM is the country's second-largest state-owned asset management company of distressed assets with NPLs under management of 340 billion baht and 20 billion worth of NPA from 3,600 assets as of Oct 31. Established in 2000, SAM was founded in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian financial crisis as a state-backed asset management company. Ronaldo Numnonda, deputy governor for financial institutions stability at the Bank of Thailand and director of the Financial Institutions Development Fund (FIDF) and a major shareholder in SAM, said SAM has appointed an investigative subcommittee to investigate the company's management of irregular transactions. www.bangkokpost.com/business/2037191/bot-begins-probe-into-sams-npa-and-npl-salesCommercial banks issue loans, some become NPL's or their assets become NPA's so they get sold to the likes of SAM where presumably and by some accounts, may get sold yet again to sharp-eyed people in the know, presumably at satang on the Baht.....nice, I'd like a job like that.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Dec 18, 2020 21:11:41 GMT 7
^^^, , reminds me of the subprime crisis from the good ole us of a about 2008, Fanny mae and freddy mac, was anyone ever jailed over that?
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