smokie36
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Post by smokie36 on Aug 8, 2020 21:48:40 GMT 7
The Baht would be deserving of a goodly part of that sum, it remains a very good bet, I remain long THB and the virus hasn't changed that. I shall have to think about possible alternatives. Indeed, no need to move the money out of the uk, just open a thai baht account at the bangkok bank in london. I have been thai baht long for about 30 years, nothing has changed, as mentioned before, anything over 40 is a bonus for me. East Coast I am and so desire at least 55 really...no surprise to anyone...after all I have expensive tastes such as prawn omelettes with my krapow. No plastic flip floppers here please.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 8, 2020 22:33:06 GMT 7
Bangkok Bank London doesn't hold a retail banking license so he can't open an account there, the branch is purely for trade and commercial purposes.
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siampolee
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Post by siampolee on Aug 8, 2020 22:38:28 GMT 7
chiangmai
Speaking as a layman indeed a good tactic when one considers the bahts' performance over the last few years. But perhaps it might be wise to step back and consider possible diversification regarding some aspects of your fiscal properties and investments.
the current political and social groundswell is becoming somewhat stronger, at the moment though all is well on the surface or so it seems, but yet the X factor that hasn't yet fully come into play regarding the effects ofCovid 19 on the economy either.
Remember a week is a long time in politics, now if the current rumblings of dissent grow stronger and like or not the authorities' reactions grow stronger too along with the Covid19 economic damage all is not going to be peace and love in the not so distant future.
Might be a wise move to perhaps consider eyeing investment opportunities outside of Thailand.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 9, 2020 3:03:31 GMT 7
chiangmai Speaking as a layman indeed a good tactic when one considers the bahts' performance over the last few years. But perhaps it might be wise to step back and consider possible diversification regarding some aspects of your fiscal properties and investments. the current political and social groundswell is becoming somewhat stronger, at the moment though all is well on the surface or so it seems, but yet the X factor that hasn't yet fully come into play regarding the effects ofCovid 19 on the economy either. Remember a week is a long time in politics, now if the current rumblings of dissent grow stronger and like or not the authorities' reactions grow stronger too along with the Covid19 economic damage all is not going to be peace and love in the not so distant future. Might be a wise move to perhaps consider eyeing investment opportunities outside of Thailand. Logically and theoretically I agree with you plus it does make sense to diversify to reduce risk, which is why I suggested only a part of the sum and not the whole. In practise however, THB has not suffered in the past when political unrest has emerged, the baht at least seems able to separate its own performance from the shenanigans of coups and the like. All the long range forecasts I've ever looked at talk about THB strengthening quite considerably over time, even allowing for a 5% weakening on the back of the planned change to gold transactions don't really change that view. The state of the post covid trade world is probably the biggest risk most nations are faced with and the driver for that will be debt levels, on that basis THB still looks very promising.
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Aug 9, 2020 5:44:56 GMT 7
Vaguely remember a Thai politician (I think) who had an interesting number of suitcases under his bed. Didn't trust banks or was saving for his daughter's wedding or so. Can't find it, a link that is. You're thinking of Supoj Saplom (government official, not politician) from whom 18 million baht and 10 baht of gold were stolen whilst he attended his daughter's wedding. (He claimed only 5 million were stolen.) The thieves claimed there was between 700 million baht to 1 billion baht in cash in the house - they couldn't carry it all. He was subsequently convicted of being "unusually wealthy", and the court ordered the seizure of 46 million baht. He had been transport permanent secretary, and it was suspected that the money was associated with Bang Yai-Bang Sue line project. He served a short prison sentence. The court subsequently (earlier this year) returned 17.5 million baht to him. And now he's back in government. There are plenty of other twists to the story, but those are the key ones.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 10, 2020 9:44:07 GMT 7
I've been reading a thread across the street where posters are arguing about the value of Thai tourism and despite many prompts over time and they still don't get it.
Tourism is valued at 3 trillion baht per year, or so the article suggests. The first point to note of course is that 3 trillion is a rounded number which doesn't involve too much research, it's a thereabouts figure, an approximation for journalistic convenience so I wouldn't get too hung up on that being anything close to precise. And if for example, the real number was 3.4 trillion which had been rounded, that's an additional USD 13 billion to play with, or indeed it might be USD 13 billion less.
The next point that escapes notice is that 3 trillion baht at 30 baht per USD versus 3 trillion baht at 32 per USD is a difference of USD 6 billion, add that to the USD 13 billion mentioned above and the article may be talking about a USD total that varies by USD 19 billion or more.
So why is this important? It's just that people like to say that tourism accounts for X percentage of Thai GDP, usually, they like to make that seem like a larger amount rather than a smaller one. So when a newspaper article says that Thai GDP is worth USD 540 billion and tourism is worth THB 3 trillion, what percentage is that exactly. The answer, of course, is that you can make it be whatever suits your argument unless you use an average exchange rate for the year and a more precise, non-rounded figure for tourism revenue.
Last of all is the question, which type of tourism is the article referring to, overall tourism, domestic tourism or international tourism, who knows, the writer probably doesn't know or even care and had probably never thought about the differences.
FWIW international tourism in 2019 was valued at 11.5% of GDP using the average exchange rate for the year whilst domestic tourism was valued at 7.5% per cent of GDP. Conveniently that adds up to a nice round 19% of GDP whilst international tourism represented 20% of total exports.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Aug 10, 2020 20:27:04 GMT 7
^^^^, too be honest I personally think covid is nothing more than a red herring for a much bigger malaise Thailand has been suffering from.
Pattaya, how many tattoo parlours, coffee shops and massage parlours can one soi sustain? Popular drinking areas from 20+ years ago have been on life support for at least the last 10 years, this may be the final nail in the coffin.
Phuket, etc etc, over developed.
I read FB these days, one thing the two week millionaires and muay thai ed visa types never mention, Bang Saen, Nakon Nayok, Rayong, business as usual for all these places, you yourself mentiond khao yai on another thread, say no more.
Used to love getting an ice cream at Mikes about 4 in the afternoon and watching big mama and the jet ski scams going down, it became a tourist attraction thanks to social media, guess you can only kick a dog so many times before it turns round and bites you.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 11, 2020 4:16:16 GMT 7
Yep, absolutely, a reduction in the number of tourist related businesses and elimination of the duplication and overlap will be a very good thing for the industry and for standards, but not so good for the current owners of course who must now go find a new way to make a living - I reckon at least 20% of Pattaya businesses could close without any negative impact on tourism in the city.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Aug 11, 2020 20:49:36 GMT 7
Yep, absolutely, a reduction in the number of tourist related businesses and elimination of the duplication and overlap will be a very good thing for the industry and for standards, but not so good for the current owners of course who must now go find a new way to make a living - I reckon at least 20% of Pattaya businesses could close without any negative impact on tourism in the city. Personally, I reckon at least 50% could close, and no one would even know they were gone, I remember the days when if a bar moved to second road, it was like a death sentance, Made in Thaiand used to be a clothes market, how many bad guys go to pattaya t shirts can you sell. You know somethings not right when a well established bar of over 30 years standing is still closed. Anyway, for those who claim bangkok is dead, think again,more to bkk than asoke to nana.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Aug 11, 2020 21:15:27 GMT 7
Indeed, no need to move the money out of the uk, just open a thai baht account at the bangkok bank in london. I have been thai baht long for about 30 years, nothing has changed, as mentioned before, anything over 40 is a bonus for me. East Coast I am and so desire at least 55 really...no surprise to anyone...after all I have expensive tastes such as prawn omelettes with my krapow. No plastic flip floppers here please., heres my advice to you,
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smokie36
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Post by smokie36 on Aug 11, 2020 22:24:11 GMT 7
East Coast I am and so desire at least 55 really...no surprise to anyone...after all I have expensive tastes such as prawn omelettes with my krapow. No plastic flip floppers here please., heres my advice to you, Fook dat...40 years of sittin on me azz smokin good herb will do basss.
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Aug 12, 2020 5:25:59 GMT 7
Anyway, for those who claim bangkok is dead, think again,more to bkk than asoke to nana. Of course, those areas don't bring new money into Thailand - they simply circulate cash within the country.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 12, 2020 5:58:19 GMT 7
Anyway, for those who claim bangkok is dead, think again,more to bkk than asoke to nana. Of course, those areas don't bring new money into Thailand - they simply circulate cash within the country. There's nothing wrong with a consumer led recovery, I think some of that spend represents diverted expense. Last year Thai's spent an amount equal to 8.5% of GDP on overseas travel, a good chunk of that is money that is now being spent internally, as evidenced by my visits to Khao Yai hotels where 15k rooms were all sold out - even the humble Dusit D2 was fully booked for the weekend by the Wednesday previous.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 12, 2020 15:17:20 GMT 7
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)....as distinct from capital inflows. In 2018 the USA was the main investor with USD 11 billion, in 2019 the US didn't even make the top five and was replaced by China as the major investor with USD 8.6 billion. That switch was a function of the trade war between the US and China where some 59% of FDI was destined for Thailands Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) which became the main beneficiary. Infrastructure build-out in the eastern provinces has been fast-paced, I drove around Chonburi, Chachoengsao and Rayong last week, the first time I've driven around that area for many years and I was most impressed with the highway structures linking the port and industrial areas with Bangkok proper. What happens to this years FDI is another story but regardless, a lot of the work is already complete. Many thanks to Mr Trumnp for doing something useful albeit he didn't intend to do so, which may actually account for some of the American attitudes towards Thailand with currency manipulation allegations etc. www.benarnews.org/english/news/thai/economic-investment-01162020161823.html
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 12, 2020 16:44:38 GMT 7
The Bank of Investment is running a trade fair to try and drum up FDI interest, this might not be the ideal time but at least they are trying. www.subconthailand.com/en-us/exhibitors/exhibitorlist.aspx List of exhibitors. Here's a list of exhibitors who are deemed worthy enough to solicit overseas funds and yes, they are all Thai companies, what else would be expected of a Thai BOI FDI exhibition!
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