rubl
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
The wondering type
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Post by rubl on Aug 1, 2020 18:35:10 GMT 7
As for the US$, America still prints its own debt in dollars. Very convenient. "U.S. Gets a Debt Warning From Fitch as Stimulus Battle Rages One of the world’s major credit-rating companies fired a warning shot regarding the U.S.’s worsening public finances on Friday, just as lawmakers in Washington contemplate spending more to combat the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. Fitch Ratings revised its outlook on the country’s credit score to negative from stable, citing a “deterioration in the U.S. public finances and the absence of a credible fiscal consolidation plan.” The country’s ranking remains AAA." finance.yahoo.com/news/united-states-outlook-revised-negative-203448506.html
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 2, 2020 5:36:37 GMT 7
An article that says Q2 GDP contracted by 13% YoY, the worst since 2Q98 following the crash. By comparison, the US dropped 33% on an annualised basis and Japan 22%. It is said that "exports and imports excluding gold, domestic consumption, private investment and the manufacturing index displayed improvements in June" and that as a result BOT may revise higher its annual forecast from -8.1% which would be excellent news. There is also anecdotal evidence to suggest that domestic tourism is picking up and that money intended for overseas travel is being diverted towards domestic travel, there will be pent up demand I believe....even I'm going on holiday to the islands! It's difficult for me to imagine the country will want to or even needs to open up to foreign tourists next month, especially given the virus situation in Vietnam, Europe and the US, keep playing the xenophobia card I say. There will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth over at the other place as simpletons and the mindless try to reconcile a fall of 33% with an improvement from -8.1%, how can that be they will ask, they're lying again, the numbers are being manipulated they will cry...oh well! Look for the official 2Q20 results on 17 August. www.bangkokpost.com/business/1960679/q2-contraction-poised-to-hit-13-
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 2, 2020 5:40:05 GMT 7
As for the US$, America still prints its own debt in dollars. Very convenient. "U.S. Gets a Debt Warning From Fitch as Stimulus Battle Rages One of the world’s major credit-rating companies fired a warning shot regarding the U.S.’s worsening public finances on Friday, just as lawmakers in Washington contemplate spending more to combat the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. Fitch Ratings revised its outlook on the country’s credit score to negative from stable, citing a “deterioration in the U.S. public finances and the absence of a credible fiscal consolidation plan.” The country’s ranking remains AAA." finance.yahoo.com/news/united-states-outlook-revised-negative-203448506.htmlIn practise this doesn't mean much, what will everyone do as a result, stop buying US T'bills?......I don't think so. But what it might do is support the case for USD weakening even further, as if there aren't already enough reasons.
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rubl
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
The wondering type
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Post by rubl on Aug 2, 2020 10:15:31 GMT 7
As for the US$, America still prints its own debt in dollars. Very convenient. "U.S. Gets a Debt Warning From Fitch as Stimulus Battle Rages One of the world’s major credit-rating companies fired a warning shot regarding the U.S.’s worsening public finances on Friday, just as lawmakers in Washington contemplate spending more to combat the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. Fitch Ratings revised its outlook on the country’s credit score to negative from stable, citing a “deterioration in the U.S. public finances and the absence of a credible fiscal consolidation plan.” The country’s ranking remains AAA." finance.yahoo.com/news/united-states-outlook-revised-negative-203448506.htmlIn practise this doesn't mean much, what will everyone do as a result, stop buying US T'bills?......I don't think so. But what it might do is support the case for USD weakening even further, as if there aren't already enough reasons. About 55% of the US National Budget is allocated to the Ministry of Defence with an unknown extra for 'you have no reason to know' projects. One might say that 55% is the budget is spent on non-productive items, unless you manage to export lots of 'war' stuff. Doesn't seem healthy either short and certainly neither long term. Also it doesn't help the population in America much. IMHO
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 2, 2020 14:05:02 GMT 7
In practise this doesn't mean much, what will everyone do as a result, stop buying US T'bills?......I don't think so. But what it might do is support the case for USD weakening even further, as if there aren't already enough reasons. About 55% of the US National Budget is allocated to the Ministry of Defence with an unknown extra for 'you have no reason to know' projects. One might say that 55% is the budget is spent on non-productive items, unless you manage to export lots of 'war' stuff. Doesn't seem healthy either short and certainly neither long term. Also it doesn't help the population in America much. IMHO Indeed....but let's try and keep the focus of this on the Thai economy, I think what that means is a continued weaker USD which may just keep pace with a weakening THB, ergo, little or no exchange rate impact.
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rubl
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
The wondering type
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Post by rubl on Aug 2, 2020 14:31:43 GMT 7
About 55% of the US National Budget is allocated to the Ministry of Defence with an unknown extra for 'you have no reason to know' projects. One might say that 55% is the budget is spent on non-productive items, unless you manage to export lots of 'war' stuff. Doesn't seem healthy either short and certainly neither long term. Also it doesn't help the population in America much. IMHO Indeed....but let's try and keep the focus of this on the Thai economy, I think what that means is a continued weaker USD which may just keep pace with a weakening THB, ergo, little or no exchange rate impact. Wasn't trying to distract. Just wondering where/when the 'direct' relation in the US$/THB exchange rate will be abandoned. Mind you with the USA a larger part of the World Economy any problem there will surely have effect elsewhere (or should that be everywhere?). One may wonder where the GBP/THB and Euro/THB top will be in that case.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 2, 2020 15:52:48 GMT 7
Indeed....but let's try and keep the focus of this on the Thai economy, I think what that means is a continued weaker USD which may just keep pace with a weakening THB, ergo, little or no exchange rate impact. Wasn't trying to distract. Just wondering where/when the 'direct' relation in the US$/THB exchange rate will be abandoned. Mind you with the USA a larger part of the World Economy any problem there will surely have effect elsewhere (or should that be everywhere?). One may wonder where the GBP/THB and Euro/THB top will be in that case. There is no direct relationship between THB and USD per se. BOT operates a managed floating peg system of currency control, it's known as the cheaters peg because it allows BOT and the other 81 countries on the same system, to intervene in the FOREX market whenever they wish! The real linkage between USD and THB exists in the form of export bills which are settled in USD, at least 60% of them are and since Thailand is an export driven economy, that means they exchange a lot of Dollars for Baht. But another driver exists and that is BOT's need to keep THB within 5% of a basket of ASEAN currencies also, many of which are linked more directly to USD. The direct or indirect link to USD will be abandoned whenever there is a viable alternative, currency swaps between exporting nations is one such alternative and these are increasingly deployed between Thailand and China. An alternative trading currency such as the one imagined by the Asian Development Bank is another and Thailand is a founding member that has Special Drawing Rights (SDR's). SDR's allow one member country to exchange their SDR's for the currency of another member country, without exchanging hard currency. The value of GBP/THB will take its lead almost exclusively from USD/GBP with some minor adjustments resulting from GBP dependent factors such as Brexit trade agreements and UK debt. Ditto the value of THB will also adjust based on Thai independent factors such as debt levels and the plan to exclude gold related currency transactions from the FOREX. The way it appears to me is that USD will continue a downward trend until either a vaccine is released, US debt levels will demand that, or until there is a major event such as a change in the US leadership which offers meaningful hope and direction. Thai debt levels are miniscule by comparison and there are early indications that the economy may exit the pandemic in better shape than most large economies, I'll be very surprised if THB weakens beyond the low to mid 40's against the Pound.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Aug 2, 2020 20:25:51 GMT 7
As for the US$, America still prints its own debt in dollars. Very convenient."U.S. Gets a Debt Warning From Fitch as Stimulus Battle Rages One of the world’s major credit-rating companies fired a warning shot regarding the U.S.’s worsening public finances on Friday, just as lawmakers in Washington contemplate spending more to combat the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. Fitch Ratings revised its outlook on the country’s credit score to negative from stable, citing a “deterioration in the U.S. public finances and the absence of a credible fiscal consolidation plan.” The country’s ranking remains AAA." finance.yahoo.com/news/united-states-outlook-revised-negative-203448506.html The greatest ponzi scheme ever, to think they locked good old Bernie up for doing the same thing, you couldnt make this shit up if you tried.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Aug 4, 2020 20:52:16 GMT 7
^^^ Whilst I look at it and I see it reaching a resistance level of ~41 (as it has done six times previously this year and not broken through), and it will now go down. And in the fullness of time, the prophecy was revealed.
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Aug 7, 2020 15:46:10 GMT 7
I rather suspect that the mentally retarded orange buffoon doesn't even know the difference between Thailand and Taiwan, given that he believes Finland is part of Russia and that Venezuela is “really part of the United States”. Geography is not his strong point. (But then, what is?) It would appear he also doesn't know the difference between Thailand and Thighland (wherever that may be). Still probably not quite as ludicrous as Yo! Semite! National Park which happens to be in the country which has the misfortune to have the clueless moron as Cheeto-in-Chief. www.mediaite.com/trump/trump-gets-roasted-for-totally-butchering-pronunciation-of-yosemite-video/
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smokie36
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Post by smokie36 on Aug 8, 2020 2:25:58 GMT 7
If I were to ask where a certain smokie were to lay out a six figure sum in sterling to move it somewhere ummm....outwith the UK...where would one leave it?
Please don't mention her indoors....she'll waste it on property or shoes!!
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Post by rgs2001uk on Aug 8, 2020 20:22:46 GMT 7
If I were to ask where a certain smokie were to lay out a six figure sum in sterling to move it somewhere ummm....outwith the UK...where would one leave it? Please don't mention her indoors....she'll waste it on property or shoes!! Next time you are out this way, just toss it in a william lows plastic bag, give it to Fletch, and he will store it under his bed for you. They tell me, under Fletchs bed is safer than Fort Knox. PS, Fletch says, make sure to bring proper english pounds notes and not your nicola sturgeon rubbish.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Aug 8, 2020 20:26:33 GMT 7
The Baht would be deserving of a goodly part of that sum, it remains a very good bet, I remain long THB and the virus hasn't changed that.
I shall have to think about possible alternatives.
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rubl
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
The wondering type
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Post by rubl on Aug 8, 2020 20:47:48 GMT 7
If I were to ask where a certain smokie were to lay out a six figure sum in sterling to move it somewhere ummm....outwith the UK...where would one leave it? Please don't mention her indoors....she'll waste it on property or shoes!! Next time you are out this way, just toss it in a william lows plastic bag, give it to Fletch, and he will store it under his bed for you. They tell me, under Fletchs bed is safer than Fort Knox. PS, Fletch says, make sure to bring proper english pounds notes and not your nicola sturgeon rubbish. Vaguely remember a Thai politician (I think) who had an interesting number of suitcases under his bed. Didn't trust banks or was saving for his daughter's wedding or so. Can't find it, a link that is. BTW tried to search a bit and found a remark that a normal size suitcase can fit US$ 2 million in 100 dollar bills. Didn't check but imagine that a full suitcase isn't something you would walk around wish for more than a few minutes.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Aug 8, 2020 20:59:33 GMT 7
The Baht would be deserving of a goodly part of that sum, it remains a very good bet, I remain long THB and the virus hasn't changed that. I shall have to think about possible alternatives. Indeed, no need to move the money out of the uk, just open a thai baht account at the bangkok bank in london. I have been thai baht long for about 30 years, nothing has changed, as mentioned before, anything over 40 is a bonus for me.
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