chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Nov 18, 2020 8:39:37 GMT 7
On the plus side there are several coid19 vaccines that are almost ready for distribution, that should begin to herald an upturn in global business, over time, which should support market activity. Also in this camp, the US must surely be on the cusp of agreeing a stimulus which should also support markets growth. Finally there's Brexit and the announcement that trade deals have been agreed must surely come at the last moment, that should spawn a collective sigh of relief and stimulate markets further.
On the downside, there's a lot of new debt around, valuations are super high/frothy and most significantly, AyG said he didn't expect to see a market crash for about 12 to 18 months, but that was about 12 months ago! And there's an increasing number of expert market commentators and expert experts who suggest it will be wise to take money off the table at the end of the year, it's worth pointing out that approximately 50% of such people get it wrong, as a quick google search will confirm!
So what to do, twist or fold....and your view is?
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Nov 18, 2020 8:51:20 GMT 7
Any "expert" who says to rotate to cash based upon market conditions is no expert. It is not possible to time markets. Period.
So, I'll be staying invested and making no changes. I will simply continue with my existing approach, which includes avoiding overpriced tech and biotech stocks. My wealth hasn't recently shot up as much as people who've heavily backed these sectors, but neither will it fall as much when the markets return to their senses on valuation. However, on returning to their senses, I am reminded of the quotation, attributed to Maynard Keynes that "markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
I will also continue to avoid old, dying markets such as coal and oil.
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Nov 18, 2020 9:03:37 GMT 7
"the US must surely be on the cusp of agreeing a stimulus which should also support markets growth."
Possibly. However, there are a few aspects of a Biden presidency that will detract from market growth:
(1) higher taxation of corporates (reversing Trump's tax cuts) (2) taxation on global corporate income (so reducing tax outrageous tax avoiding schemes) (3) higher taxation of wealthy individuals (though these individuals will probably find ways around that, so I'm no so confident of its impact) (4) breaking up of monopolies such as Amazon and Google.
On the plus side, I expect there (at last) to be substantial investment in America's crumbling infrastructure which should help support markets.
As I wrote in my previous post, I will continue to avoid old, dying markets, and for me that includes the American Empire, an Empire that will eventually crumble, just as they all do.
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chiangmai
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Markets
Nov 18, 2020 20:29:42 GMT 7
Post by chiangmai on Nov 18, 2020 20:29:42 GMT 7
The expression "time the markets" implies investors attempt to move in when markets are rising and somehow escape before they fall, that is of course not possible to do on a consistent basis. But perhaps taking a break from markets when they are exceptionally frothy or unnaturally extended might be less about attempting to time markets and more about exercising good judgment and reducing risk. Rises and falls of 5% are seen as business as usual but falls of 20%+ are exceptional events that happen only infrequently, trying to avoid them is hardly timing the market. "Since 1920, the S&P 500 Index has—on average—recorded a 5% pullback three times a year, a 10% correction once every 16 months, and a 20% plunge every seven years, according to Fidelity Investments".
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rubl
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The wondering type
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Markets
Nov 28, 2020 10:25:33 GMT 7
Post by rubl on Nov 28, 2020 10:25:33 GMT 7
Apart from wishful thinking and optimism is there a solid economical reason for the surge at the Stock exchanges? Yjey'd didn't really drop much with the Cobid, and now 15 to 20% past pre-covid heights. To me it only suggests that a few people got rich(er) and most just stay poor. 2020-11-28 Stock market news live updates: Wall Street notches slim gains; Nasdaq, S&P 500 set new records Wall Street rose on Friday, with stocks posting marginal new highs in thin, post-Thanksgiving trading, as hopes for a COVID-19 vaccine momentarily counterbalance soaring infection rates. The New York Stock Exchange closed early for the Thanksgiving holiday. Stocks are consolidated their gains after the Dow Jones Industrial Average was catapulted above 30,000 for the first time ever on Tuesday, with an increasing number of investors encouraged by expectations that a vaccine will be rolled out by early next year, if not sooner. “In the US, we expect the first available doses to go to high-risk groups from mid-December onwards, leading to significant public health benefits from [the first quarter of 2021] onwards, followed by widespread vaccination commencing in April,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a research note on Friday. “While the exact timeline remains quite uncertain, this analysis reinforces our baseline forecast that widespread immunization should drive a sharp pickup in global growth starting in Q2,” the bank added. finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-november-27-2020-125155418.html
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Nov 28, 2020 10:44:18 GMT 7
[The markets are] now 15 to 20% past pre-covid heights.
Not sure that's true. The S&P has gone from a peak of 3386 back in February to 3638. That's a 7.4% rise. Year to date my own portfolio is up 8.2%. It looks like this year is going to turn out to be a middling one for the markets. Of course, market prices are based upon what people expect from companies in the future, rather than what they are doing today, so to me that suggests that the expectation is that things are going to get back to normal in the not too distant future.
On the other hand, things are complicated by different economies. New economy stocks have done particularly well with people under lock down, whilst traditional retailers are going to the wall. The net rise is a balance of the two economies. (Of course, when the retailers eventually go bankrupt and drop out of the indices, then the indices will rise.)
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chiangmai
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Markets
Nov 28, 2020 10:46:26 GMT 7
Post by chiangmai on Nov 28, 2020 10:46:26 GMT 7
Apart from wishful thinking and optimism is there a solid economical reason for the surge at the Stock exchanges? Yes of course, do you really think we're that stupid that we would remain invested without good reason, good grief rubl, I'm shocked that you don't know why, you being a numbers man and all. But I can't disclose the secret Rubl unless I have been properly remunerated first........bank transfers will be perfectly acceptable, PM for details.
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rubl
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The wondering type
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Markets
Nov 28, 2020 10:55:49 GMT 7
Post by rubl on Nov 28, 2020 10:55:49 GMT 7
Apart from wishful thinking and optimism is there a solid economical reason for the surge at the Stock exchanges? Yes of course, do you really think we're that stupid that we would remain invested without good reason, good grief rubl, I'm shocked that you don't know why, you being a numbers man and all. But I can't disclose the secret Rubl unless I have been properly remunerated first........bank transfers will be perfectly acceptable, PM for details. Losses have been written off, tax deducted. staff sacked or on lower pay / pension. CEOs stimulated with share and other packages. Increase of stock market by simple Trump or Biden win. Etc., etc. PS I work in IT. I don't need you to give me your details, allegedly of course
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chiangmai
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
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Post by chiangmai on Nov 28, 2020 12:32:40 GMT 7
Yes of course, do you really think we're that stupid that we would remain invested without good reason, good grief rubl, I'm shocked that you don't know why, you being a numbers man and all. But I can't disclose the secret Rubl unless I have been properly remunerated first........bank transfers will be perfectly acceptable, PM for details. Losses have been written off, tax deducted. staff sacked or on lower pay / pension. CEOs stimulated with share and other packages. Increase of stock market by simple Trump or Biden win. Etc., etc. PS I work in IT. I don't need you to give me your details, allegedly of course The real answer of course is........increased certainty.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Dec 1, 2020 21:06:48 GMT 7
On the plus side there are several coid19 vaccines that are almost ready for distribution, that should begin to herald an upturn in global business, over time, which should support market activity. Also in this camp, the US must surely be on the cusp of agreeing a stimulus which should also support markets growth. Finally there's Brexit and the announcement that trade deals have been agreed must surely come at the last moment, that should spawn a collective sigh of relief and stimulate markets further. On the downside, there's a lot of new debt around, valuations are super high/frothy and most significantly, AyG said he didn't expect to see a market crash for about 12 to 18 months, but that was about 12 months ago! And there's an increasing number of expert market commentators and expert experts who suggest it will be wise to take money off the table at the end of the year, it's worth pointing out that approximately 50% of such people get it wrong, as a quick google search will confirm! So what to do, twist or fold....and your view is? My view is. If you are cashing in to take advantage of exchange rates, go for it. If you are cashing in to build up cash reserves held in reserve to tide you over for the next X years, go for it. If you are able to take advantage of firesale prices on property etc etc, go for it. Personally, I have never cashed in, leave it in the market, divis reinvested, if I sell anything due to poor performance, it is reinvested.
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