AyG
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
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Post by AyG on Mar 3, 2021 12:43:15 GMT 7
You're 55 years old, you can have only one fund, it's your last 10,000 Pounds, you can't afford to lose the money.....what will you buy? A bottle of the finest whisky and a cyanide pill.
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TTFT
Fricken Tiger
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Post by TTFT on Mar 3, 2021 14:00:34 GMT 7
You're 55 years old, you can have only one fund, it's your last 10,000 Pounds, you can't afford to lose the money.....what will you buy? A bottle of the finest whisky and a cyanide pill. Brilliant answer AYG and so true. However, you did manage to spell Whisk ey wrong.
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AyG
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
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Post by AyG on Mar 3, 2021 14:24:43 GMT 7
A bottle of the finest whisky and a cyanide pill. Brilliant answer AYG and so true. However, you did manage to spell Whisk ey wrong. No way. My choice of suicide whisky would probably be Ardbeg Corryvreckan. Not an "e" in whisky at all.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Mar 3, 2021 21:34:59 GMT 7
You're 55 years old, you can have only one fund, it's your last 10,000 Pounds, you can't afford to lose the money.....what will you buy? A bottle of the finest whisky and a cyanide pill. , I concur, with those funds, he is probably stretching it to reach Hong Thong or Blend 285 status. Must be a TEFLr.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Mar 3, 2021 21:36:06 GMT 7
Brilliant answer AYG and so true. However, you did manage to spell Whisk ey wrong. No way. My choice of suicide whisky would probably be Ardbeg Corryvreckan. Not an "e" in whisky at all. Nice choice, more of a Highland Park man myself.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Mar 11, 2021 8:44:34 GMT 7
Martin Currie didn't jump out of the technology space and the value of their fund suffered as a result, unlike many of their counterparts, 24% tech. holding at last glance...is that a concern for anyone?
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AyG
Crazy Mango Extraordinaire
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Post by AyG on Mar 11, 2021 9:31:58 GMT 7
Martin Currie didn't jump out of the technology space and the value of their fund suffered as a result, unlike many of their counterparts, 24% tech. holding at last glance...is that a concern for anyone? You need to look deeper, into the actual holdings. They have avoided the likes of Tesla, Facebook, Netflix, Amazon, Alphabet because they know they are way too expensive. Consequently, I don't see any reason for concern.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Mar 12, 2021 19:23:28 GMT 7
"We think the U.S. 10-year yield has further room to go and could reach 1.80%,” said Sebastien Galy, a senior macro strategist at Nordea Investment Funds. “Growth stocks maintain a high sensitivity to rates, which continues to suggest that they are quite overvalued.”
Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water.
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Post by rgs2001uk on Mar 12, 2021 20:58:48 GMT 7
"We think the U.S. 10-year yield has further room to go and could reach 1.80%,” said Sebastien Galy, a senior macro strategist at Nordea Investment Funds. “Growth stocks maintain a high sensitivity to rates, which continues to suggest that they are quite overvalued.” Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water. , I will take my chances elsewhere.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Mar 13, 2021 8:36:15 GMT 7
After I bought back my LT Global at a lower price I put considerable effort into understanding the true geographic allocation, here's what the percentages look like now:
Cash 14 NA 31 UK 11 Dev Asia 7 EM 12 Japan 5 EU 6 scandi. 2 Aus 1
For the record, I have agreed with investopedia that certain countries should be included under EM and Dev. Asia. Where I have been unable to find out the definitive list of countries each fund invests in I have used my definitions. Dev Asia includes HK, Singapore, S. Korea, Taiwan. Japan is Japan. China and India are EM.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Mar 19, 2021 5:12:40 GMT 7
The 10 year bond hit 1.75% and the Nasdaq cratered, I made $24.36 yesterday, can anyone beat that?
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Mar 20, 2021 5:43:52 GMT 7
I see the discussions surrounding investing and markets hs ground to halt, is everyone hiding under the couch or crying in their beer?
Another day and the 10-year bond creeps higher, it's now flat at 1.72% and markets have fallen yet again. I suppose many people must be asking when this will stop, I'm down 6% from the peak, I'm sure others must be down more, especially those holding SM and similar. The Fed made dovish sounds and told the world that inflation is not a risk but the markets know better! Next, they said they are prepared to let the US economy run hot....that's Fed-speak for keeping interest rates low whilst inflation gorges its way through your pile of cash.
The US Dollar Index is down slightly at 91.74, it climbed at the end of February but is now essentially flat. If you were the Fed today, would you really want everyone buying USD and making it stronger, of course not, that would be a real downer for recovery and exports? Markets say interest rates will rise, the Fed says they won't until after 2023, if the 10 yield continues to climb the markets will win, if it doesn't the Fed will win. I'm betting the markets will win and the 10 year will keep climbing and we all know what that won't be good for rates or equities, unfortunately. It might just be that whilst everyone is wary of a markets crash, what happens instead is a gradual and sustained loss of value over time, a slow market crash, that a scary thought.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Mar 20, 2021 7:09:34 GMT 7
Here's an interesting graph, the average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 over time. The mean is 15.91 but we haven't been anywhere near that since 2011, what does that tell you!
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AyG
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Post by AyG on Mar 20, 2021 7:38:55 GMT 7
It tells me that the yield on equities listed on the S&P 500 has fallen significantly. A P/E ratio of 15.91 implies a yield of 6.3%. 39.84 implies 2.5%. This (a) makes it harder for pensioners to live on the income from their investments, (b) means that investors are now poorly compensated for the extra risk of investing in equities on the S&P 500. (A proper analysis of (b) would require a comparison of equity yields versus, say, US Treasury Bills.)
There's been a lot of academic research on mean reversion of P/E ratios. The conclusions have been mixed. The chart, however, doesn't in itself make me doubt that mean reversion will happen in the longer term.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Mar 20, 2021 8:08:03 GMT 7
In order for your point (b) above to become a risk and become something that will cause the herd to stampede, investors will need an alternative to equities and at present that doesn't really exist......but it may exist in another 50 basis points or so.
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