Have a care brother,some here are not all they seem.

Drink more. Do more women.
On the latter subject I mentioned to an associate just this morning that a certain low bar on Soi 4 is asking 800 baht bar fine. He said nowadays that is not even unusual in Pattaya.
"if the good times are all gone, then I'm for movin' on." But to where one asks oneself.?

Another day, another strengthening Dollar story - the fear is that poor numbers from China and Europe point towards more fears about inflation and yet more interest rate rises from the Fed, that means capital outflows and a flight to safety into safe harbor USD. That's great for expats who want better ex rates, less so for equities investors and pension funds. And oil is at a 10 month high as Russia cuts supply, higher oil prices of course means higher transportation and supply costs.....that leads to inflation and rate increases yet again.

This is worrying:

The VIX index reflects the extent to which investors are sheltering their money during unsettled times. The VIX measures implied volatility in equity markets over the coming 30 days.

"In a jaw-dropping play, a trader recently shelled out $30,000 on a bet that hinges on the VIX index hitting 180 by February 2024.

As of now, the VIX, often dubbed the “fear gauge,” is trading at a mere 15, implying a staggering 1,100% surge would be needed for the bet to pay off.

Yahoo Finance data reveals that the trader purchased 5,035 VIX options with a strike price of 180 and an expiration date of Feb. 14, 2024, at a cost of $0.06 per contract".

markets.businessinsider.com/news/etf/the-biggest-short-trader-bets-30k-on-1-100-vix-spike-by-february-2024-1032614400

Just to put this in perspective, during the Great Financial Crash, the Fear Gauge peaked at 84.

The US Dollar Index fell to its lowest level in six months in July this year, after which it rose rapidly to its highest level in over a year! Why? Because in July, markets believed that inflation was being tamed and the prospect of further rate increases by the US Fed was very low, plus, the prospect of a Goldilocks landing for the economy had increased. Immediately afterwards, a clearer economic picture emerged from China and the news was not good, later the news from Europe painted a similar picture. Markets attention had finally turned from being US centric to the realisation that other major economies need to fire on all cylinders too, if the economy of this joined up world is to prosper (until globalisation well and truly ends that is).

OK, so all that's history, what about the future?

If you believe that the US economic engine is firing on all cylinders but at low revs., that bodes well for countries whose exports are dependent on the US. Except food exports are rapidly being restricted either by what's happening in the Ukraine or isolationism as countries protect their home supply and refuse to export foodstuffs abroad. Developing and Emerging Market countries are caught between a rock and a hard place here, on the one hand they need the money from exports but they also need the food for their own people plus the high value of the Dollar means it costs them more to settle export bills. And let's not forget that we're heading into an El Nino period that may last for two years or more so water supplies may be more scarce than usual, those things point towards higher priced rice (at least), less of it and lower exports.

Next up we have a trend of continued inflation, some of which is being sponsored by government give aways. One of the key attractions of the Thai economy was low government debt and near zero foreign debt, that picture is surely going to change as populist economic policies play out. The headline debt picture may not change much but bond issuances rarely get mentioned and bonds are still debt. We also have large scale refinancing of debt from high rates to lower rates, this bodes badly for income seekers but bodes well for company debt. Lastly, we have government borrowings which are out of control in many Western countries but less so in Thailand, as of today that is! In 2022, Thailand food exports totalled almost USD 40 bill. Given the water shortages from El Nino, that is almost certainly the peak for a few years.

Lastly we have tourism and the hope there will be a resurgence in Chinese tourism. But this requires tourists to have money to spend, low travel costs and low transportation costs. With hotel costs in Thailand increasing to new levels daily and with oil still being priced in USD and currently pushing towards USD 90+ pb, I wouldn’t want to bet the farm that relaxed visa rules will solve all the problems. The risk that the Thai economy could blow a gasket seems to be increasing.

The bottom line? I’m betting on USD remaining strong and that THB will have a tough time trying to recover its former glory soon. We're headed towards a US election and a weak Dollar seems unlikely if Biden wants to win, plus, what other safe haven is there!

There's some truth in the story from an investment standpoint but I'm pretty sure the message was mostly political.