Can I just point out that the US DI is where it was nine months ago, USD/THB is the same and the S&P500 is where it was a year ago, this doesn't feel like progress.

It looks like El Nino may not be a concern after all. I read today that the government has set up a committee to deal with the matter, I'm so relieved, that was a close call.

You buy newspapers? How quaint.

Er, no. Neither the Chair of the Federal Reserve nor the head of the Chinese Central Bank have called me this morning to share their various tidbits of information so I presume there's not much going on of interest, you'll just have to make do with the shite the journo's invent.

BTW, it's worth watching the oil price, it's now over 90, this is seriously not good for anyone apart from the towel heads.

Jerome called and said I should remind everyone that Friday is a triple witching day, rather than bore you with long unfamiliar words I'll just post a link here for you to read at your leisure. Be warned however, there will be a quiz about this later and woe betide anyone who fluffs the answers:

www.marketwatch.com/story/triple-witching-day-analysts-brace-for-volatility-as-3-4-trillion-in-stock-options-set-to-expire-friday-a61dcbd

What a difference between when I went to bed and when I woke up. Yesterday evening the markets were at peace, China was improving and even though the US inflation numbers came in hotter than expected, markets began to rise....happy days are here again, I thought. And sure enough, when I woke up my investment had gained, it was a +1% day, wheeee, break out the bolly. But 'ang on a mo'., the S&P is still open and own 1.4%, what's that about I wonder? It seems that out of boredom perhaps or because there was nothing else to worry about, markets undecided their previous decided view on the inflation numbers and redecided that would be a problem so sell sell sell, twats! 

I think, in truth, this might just be a case of weekend worry, it's Friday night and investors are afraid to hold open or long positions over the weekend in these trying times, lest they get raped on Monday morning and US investors can't do anything because their market is closed. US markets are the last to close on Friday night but also the last to open on Monday and bad things often get announced over weekends. I'm sure that''s what it must be because the VIX didn't soar meaningfully.  That said, oil is still pushing North of 90, it's up to 91.30 now but USD is down very slightly. BTW the Fed is meeting next week and the overwhelming view (97%) is they will hold rates as is. That is not to say Jerome wont speak and say something that will unsettle markets, I shall call Jerome and remind him to keep is zipped.

In other news, brought to you today by The Reliant Motor Company, makers of fine touring vehicles, and Twinings, purveyors of tea leaves made specifically for reading:

I see the Gov. at the BoT is letting it be known loudly that any stimulus plan along current lines of thinking will be ill advised, it will take up to 30 years to pay down the debt and gov. borrowings will grow from 60+%+ to 70%+......it's just not a good move he reckons and he does know his stuff. Oh yes, and that increase from 60% to 70% will require a change to fiscal discipline rules and approval by the Parliament and I don't think the opposition is in favor.....stay tuned.

Meanwhile, the hotel industry is recording an uptick in business caused by gov. depts. spending their remaining budget on conferences and jollies, ahead of the end of the budget year......use it or lose it they say. Here's an abstract thought, what if you don't fret it away on nonsense stuff and instead hold it over for next years budget, that way the central budget and the country's economy will be in far better shape? No? Too avant garde? I thought so.

And reducing the price of diesel to 30 baht is nice for the nine tenths of the country that use diesel pickups like family saloons but is it really worth the cost in terms of pollution? Surely there's a better amore targeted alternative to reduce transportation and shipping costs....think hard everyone, I know you can do it.

Last up today is the US Fed is losing money, it's now over US 100 bill in the hole and is likely to see -200 bill before they are finished. Why? Well, the Fed issues bonds that it pays interest on, currently, the interest rates that they keep raising, are causing their income generating activities to be dwarfed by their expenses....what shall we do today for fun, I know, let's raise interest rates and shoot ourselves in the foot, again! 

www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-losses-breach-100-billion-interest-costs-rise-2023-09-15/  

There is no change to the USD or THB picture although Iowa corn and pork belly futures look interesting, that said I did promise a reading of the tea leaves. Since most of are really only interested in GBP/THB, I thought this short video on charting of the GBP/USD might be useful. For those who like to read the answers straight away, GBP is losing value against USD (or rather USD is gaining value) and that trend is continuing, conversely, USD is above par at 105. It therefore follows that when USD returns to norm, GBP/THB will fall in value, the question is when.

I agree. I think there is a presumption by many that, just because a politician is a successful business person, they automatically understand all there is to know about finance and budgets.....that worked for Thaksin.

For my part, I think there's a chasm of difference between heading a successful construction company and running a country, especially during difficult times. There is also a difference between graduating from the 67th best university out of 100, versus, Pita who graduated from the best ranked university in the world, Harvard.

I can agree to compromise by calling it a corrected cyclical facking, hope that works for you too.