chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 2, 2023 9:58:57 GMT 7
Meanwhile, a farang reporter says, "Thailand’s economy is expected to accelerate to 3.9% in 2023 due to increased demand from China, Europe, and the US, as well as growth in tourism and private consumption. However, growth is projected to moderate in 2024 and 2025 due to weakening external demand. Inflation is expected to moderate to 2% in 2023. The return of tourists, particularly from China, has improved the tourism outlook said the World Bank in its latest Thailand Economic Monitor report".
www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/99013-world-bank-raises-thailand-growth-forecast-to-3-9The journo above seems to have formed his opinion based on a World Bank report, which says in part: "The return of tourists, particularly from China, has strengthened the tourism outlook. Arrivals are projected to reach a greater-than-expected 28.5 million, 84 percent of the 2019 level, and to the pre-pandemic level by the second half of 2024". This statement needs qualification, when they say strengthened, they refer to the change in tourist arrivals from 2022 to 2023. www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/06/28/thai-economy-to-accelerate-in-2023-as-demand-from-major-economies-picks-up-tourists-returnAs if all of that is not contradictory and confusing enough, the original paper goes on to report that, "Thailand’s exports fell for the seventh consecutive month in April, down 7.6% YoY, due to an ongoing sluggish global demand. This decline is higher than the forecasted 2% fall, and came after a 4.2% drop in March". So, what to make of all the contradiction? My take is that customs exports are down, quite substantially, whilst tourist arrivals will disappoint because TAT will miss slightly the overly ambitious target they set themselves initially. Still, 28 mill. instead of 30 million will be enough to drive a higher than expected growth in GDP, from 2.2 to 3.9%, hence the World Bank increase. This means all is OK if not good in the economics world and everyone is happy, apart from TAT who still wants even more tourists. www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/98546-thailands-export-down-by-7-6-in-april-for-seventh-consecutive-month |
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rubl
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Post by rubl on Jul 2, 2023 10:02:13 GMT 7
Cybertruck? I'm getting inundated with twits from Tesla and Elon Musk sycophants about it. It's almost a duty as law abiding, freedom loving human being. PS they also sell big, real big batteries.  |
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rubl
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Post by rubl on Jul 2, 2023 10:05:15 GMT 7
"TAT who still wants even more tourists" The right type of tourists only of course. The higher level tourists. Like the 28 million they already found.  |
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 2, 2023 10:25:51 GMT 7
28 mill. tourists is only a good number if Customs exports hold up, the more they don't, the greater the number of tourists are needed to compensate. And let's face it, if it's got an overseas passport and has money, it's a quality tourist, as long as it's breathing when it enters the country.
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rubl
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Post by rubl on Jul 2, 2023 11:26:58 GMT 7
28 mill. tourists is only a good number if Customs exports hold up, the more they don't, the greater the number of tourists are needed to compensate. And let's face it, if it's got an overseas passport and has money, it's a quality tourist, as long as it's breathing when it enters the country. Barely breathing is enough as Thailand is a world class destination for Medical Services aimed at helping suffering people (with enough money)  |
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rubl
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Post by rubl on Jul 2, 2023 14:34:11 GMT 7
Apropos of sound financial advise [SIC] Someone twittered concern about the possibly upcoming 'fight' between Zuckerberg and Musk adding a picture of full body armored Elon Musk. Possibly to protect his or their investment in Tesla. I replied my concern "especially since no body armor will be used. That's only for fantasy fights." Promptly I got two replies with similar content "Drop hello on telegram to be a part of Teslaconomics private mentorship program on trades, his trading platform is really the best." "Say Hi on telegram to join the Teslaconomics ongoing mentorship program to trade." Both with a link to some website (not checked). The first reply to me, the second to me and @teslaconomics AND @elonmusk No wonder twitter is burdened with traffic. |
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smokie36
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Post by smokie36 on Jul 2, 2023 22:19:40 GMT 7
Big crash please....I'm ready to transfer the retirement funds
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 3, 2023 3:10:49 GMT 7
The odds of a big crash are very small, if you can get 45 I'd take it. Or, maybe do half at 45 then wait and see, but you'd need to set yourself a lower limit.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 3, 2023 6:16:25 GMT 7
An article about The Pound exchange rate below, it concludes with "we don't know" but does suggest some things along the way! End of month, end of quarter, end of half year, they're all times when dealers rebalance their funds/holdings and these things have a significant impact on the currency. Remember also that GBP/THB is calculated using USD/THB so that rebalancing effect applies to USD also, a much bigger currency with higher impact. The other key factor is the Carry Trade or capital inflows chasing yield, 6% is seriously interesting to international investors. Will it hold? It should in the short term but the risk of a correction has increased substantially. Ultimately, Sterling will fall, the question is whether THB and USD will fall also, the latter seems very unlikely to me, but what do I know. I think it's bird in the hand time, if I'm wrong, you can beat me up later. www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/18941-pound-to-euro-and-dollar-month-end-washout |
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 3, 2023 7:13:20 GMT 7
Two graphs, one is GBP/USD, the other is the USD DI. The Pound has strengthened against USD since September 22, or so it appears. In reality, USD (according to the Dollar Index) has weakened (more like it has returned to near par) over the same period. So no, the Pound hasn't got stronger, nearly all the action and movement has been on the USD side (month/quarter/half year end activity notwithstanding). So what does this mean for the Pound Baht? I think it means that 45 could hold, AS LONG AS the UK and US economies don't weaken, if either one does, Pound Baht will fall. Plus, the UK has to be able afford the effects of a stronger GBP/USD, which have a greater impact on government borrowing costs. All of those things are a big ask!   |
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 3, 2023 19:16:13 GMT 7
Anecdotal re. the economy:
I said I was going to buy a new truck, my current one is 10 years old and has 169k on the clock. I went to see the dealers and they fell over themselves trying to do a deal. I was given 6% discount from list price, without even asking, the offer for my trade in was 45% of what I paid for it so I held out for 50%, two hours later they called and agreed. All the usual freebies thrown in plus front and rear road camera. It's a buyers market and the sellers are hungry.
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rubl
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Post by rubl on Jul 3, 2023 20:56:19 GMT 7
Anecdotal re. the economy: I said I was going to buy a new truck, my current one is 10 years old and has 169k on the clock. I went to see the dealers and they fell over themselves trying to do a deal. I was given 6% discount from list price, without even asking, the offer for my trade in was 45% of what I paid for it so I held out for 50%, two hours later they called and agreed. All the usual freebies thrown in plus front and rear road camera. It's a buyers market and the sellers are hungry. Ever the hipster did you buy a Tesla cybertruck?  |
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 4, 2023 3:40:54 GMT 7
Yes, Toyota Revo, very reliable.
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chiangmai
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Post by chiangmai on Jul 4, 2023 6:59:51 GMT 7
Another serious, "food for thought" article about USD and China's currency: www.ft.com/content/7172d136-dd14-404a-8a5c-92125af2b24e?ftcamp=traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddevThe paper/idea that China might be holding twice the level of USD, above and beyond that previously thought, has caused a major stir. Thought now turns to what happens if/when China begins to unload some of that USD because it's no longer needed. Why would they do that, there are three key reasons? 1) inflation is under control so US interest rates fall, 2) Confidence in China and the Chinese economy turns positive, and 3) the Chinese/US Services sector normalises. All three are inevitable at some point. When China starts to sell an avalanche of USD, the value of USD will fall quite dramatically, whatever they decide to buy will increase by a similar amount. Scary, no? |
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rott
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Post by rott on Jul 4, 2023 9:16:14 GMT 7
Really Changers you are putting stuff like this together before 7 am.?
Normal (and I use the word loosely) people at that time who have risen are groggily debating whether to go back to bed or go to the caff over the road for a coffee.
A bit late now for anything but coffee.
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